Chris Kouffman Profile picture
Oct 3, 2023 17 tweets 10 min read Read on X
I took a closer look at the explosive plays the Bills were able to hang on the Dolphins defense. Here’s a video of all the plays, plus som angles that show a point. Common themes are bad angles in space, broken coverages, and a scheme that at times asked too much. (Videos Below)
First play should look familiar. It’s a zero blitz. There are no safeties deep, and Dolphins are bringing 6 players on the rush. If you’re doing this, you have to get to the QB. If the QB is left taking a leisurely stroll thru the park, you’re hanging your CBs out to dry.

This matchup on the near side between Kader Kohou and Stefon Diggs was allowed to turn into one of those 1-on-1 practice drills that so strongly favor the WR that someone like Brandon London ends with a viral video looking like Drake London.

Kohou is a promising player, but still only in his second year out of Texas A&M Commerce (a school I didn’t even know existed), and perhaps more importantly, this is only the second game in his career where the Dolphins asked him to work exclusively on the perimeter. In a new scheme. He had been primarily a slot guy until the Broncos game.

This is a theme throughout the clips, Dolphins really throwing Kader into the fire covering Stefon Diggs anywhere he goes, without safety help, while Josh Allen could read Tolstoy in the backfield and casually launch the ball with that alien arm.
And of course, the aspect of this play that made it an explosive play for the Bills is Kader Kohou’s being flagged for a late “hit”. I’ll let y’all decide how bad it was, whether it should’ve been flagged, etc. Looked like a pretty weak call to me.
Starting with the Broncos game, the Dolphins elevated Justin Bethel from his role as a Dime CB to a virtual starter role as Nickel CB working out of the slot. That’s a big promotion, and it ties in with moving Kader Kohou exclusively to the perimeter. This left other players like Cam Smith, Eli Apple, and Parry Nickerson sitting the bench.

On this play you can see Bethel eating the cheese. The Bills brought a player in motion out to the flat to Bethel’s side, and instead of trusting the LBs to handle him so that Bethel could cover Gabe Davis, Justin cheats up to the flat and is left trying to recover as Davis streaks right by him to the end zone.

And just for good measure, there’s really no pressure on Josh Allen, who makes a nice and easy practice throw for the score.
This next play, obviously Bills came out in a heavy personnel package and Miami did the same. That’s not interesting to me. It’s not even all that interesting to me that David Long was left trying to cover two gaps, allowing Latavius Murray to hit whichever gap Long didn’t fit. It’s going to be a while before everyone starts to ‘get’ the tougher asks in this scheme.

What bothers me is Brandon Jones coming down as the last line of defense and getting completely embarrassed in the open by a RB who really isn’t known for being elusive in the open field. This should have been an 8 to 10 yard gain. Not ideal, but you live to fight another day. Instead it’s an explosive and puts the Bills in the red zone ready to score a TD.
This is a classic, you see Miami do this a lot. Buffalo is sucking up the linebackers with play-action and taking advantage of the zone coverage which pretty much dictates that this slant will find open space. As a team defense you might hope Duke Riley either recovers quickly enough to get enough depth to crowd the passing lane, or maybe isn’t fooled by the split flow action to begin with. I know last season Fred Warner admitted the 49ers linebackers keyed on getting depth first and then reacting to the run actions, as opposed to usually the opposite which is what Riley does here. Can see the ball squeaks right by him as he couldn’t get depth after being sucked up into the action. Pressure isn’t really relevant on a play like this.
This the deep ball where Kader Kohou was flagged for “interference”. Thing that stands out to me on this play is how much of that football field Kader had to cover with Diggs lined up over him. Look at the zones on the near side where Xavien Howard lets a streaking Gabe Davis go off to the deep safety, while Kader’s got Stefon Diggs in man everywhere he goes (MEG) with half a football field of green to worry about. Again, that’s a lot for a guy who is only playing his 2nd game on the perimeter. Particularly when Josh Allen could’ve held a dinner party in the backfield while he waited to launch this thing.
And for good measure, I’ll let y’all decide how bad this “interference” was, whether it deserved a flag or not. To borrow a line from Peyton Manning last night, on a scale of 1 to 10, do you think this was a 1, or a 2?
I think some people on the initial game watch were under the mistaken impression that this was part of Kader Kohou’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day. The All-22 makes it a bit more clear that Diggs ran thru Miami’s zone coverage and eventually settled into LB David Long’s zone. I don’t even blame Long here because you can see Josh Allen turn up the field threatening to run right thru Long’s zone to the goal line, which caused Long to bite up while Diggs zagged right behind him.
We don’t really need to complicate this one. Clearly LB David Long was being put thru the ringer by Buffalo this Sunday. Bad angle, not decisive enough, bad tackle attempt, just all the way bad.
Oh boy. What can I say about this play that hasn’t already been said about Afghanistan.

Let’s start with the fact the Dolphins are bringing 5 to the quarterback and Buffalo is countering by having their RB and TE chip on their way out to their routes. So of course, as we see over and over, nobody influences Josh Allen. He’s having a great time back there.

And since this is single-high coverage, that once again leaves Kader Kohou on Revis Island in only his second year out of Texas A&M Commerce, second game transitioning from slot CB to perimeter CB. Against Stefon Diggs. Who has enough time (thanks pass rush!) to FAKE the double move, and go for the triple lindy. Kohou gets all grabby and was called for a 5 yard holding that was declined for obvious reasons.

But it gets so much worse. Brandon Jones, not known for being a good deep fielder, comes over from his deep center position to help tackle Stefon Diggs, and instead tackles Kader Kohou OFF of Diggs, leaving Stefon to scoot off to the end zone probably laughing the whole way. This is ugly.
And because the terribleness of this play deserves laboring, here’s a nice closeup of the keystone cops routine. Cue the Benny Hill music.
I damn near fainted watching this play at first because the Dolphins actually got some pressure on Josh Allen here. Unfortunately, Allen is pretty strong and elusive. He does that.

But when you really take a look at this play enough, I don’t know what the hell is happening.

You’ve got a man in motion and Miami has Justin Bethel move with him like it’s man, but not another soul on defense budges their feet and Bethel kinda sorta rushes but then doesn’t rush but then rushes after all.

Xavien Howard picks up Dalton Kincaid in man coverage and runs all the way to the other side of the field in coverage. That’s nice of him to join Jerome Baker, who is doing the same thing. I guess Kincaid is getting the Megatron treatment now? Impressive for the rookie tight end! (yes I’m being sarcastic)

Everyone else is playing zone. Which is unfortunate because it leaves LB David Long (we’ve said his name a lot today) trying to play monkey in the middle as both a TE and a RB release right thru his zone. Again I hate to pick on Long here because he literally couldn’t be right.

But because this just had to have an extra knife twist of embarrassment, Jevon Holland comes up from his deep position and attempts a “tackle” on James Cook. Just really poor.
Oh good. This play. I’ve already tweeted about it. Josh Allen had his pick of touchdowns here.

Kader Kohou is left trying to deal with Stefon Diggs on half a football field. His literal only chance of being right was to try and let Allen’s eyes take him to the ball, which is a fun thing for a CB to try since this looks like man coverage with zero deep. He chose…poorly.

What in blue hell is happening with the safeties and linebackers here? Look at the two safeties and two linebackers stuck like they’re in quicksand between the hashes. Now we’re giving BOTH HASH MARKS the Megatron treatment? Bold move, Cotton.

Meanwhile both receivers opposite Diggs are running with corners in trail, both are open, and of course Josh Allen is in the backfield writing a letter to his favorite pen pal before deciding which player he’d like to throw a touchdown to today.

Whole play comes off as like a zero blitz…WITHOUT THE BLITZ. Bet they never saw THAT coming!
And because that play was so schematically bad that it deserves more labor, let’s get a look at the back view just because it gives us the best possible vista on how useless all those linebackers and safeties looked sitting on their haunches between the hashes. 🤌
This one is also great. Kelvin Joseph has come on the field, lined up as a corner on the far side. He’s the one who doesn’t move an inch while the safeties try and communicate adjustments after a Bills player goes in motion.

At this point I’ve given up trying to figure out what happened. Somehow Dawson Knox and Gabe Davis are running the same route. Somehow the Dolphins decide that NEITHER is worth covering. Fine. Everything’s fine.
Just for the final kick in the teeth, this is something you can do with Josh Allen because he’s a monster. But it should also be a learning experience for Miami when they have to go up to Philadelphia and face Jalen Hurts who will run similar plays.

Because it’s a QB keeper, the Bills are creating a numbers advantage. So it’s hard to defend. But…this still felt too easy.

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Oct 31, 2023
Mike McDaniel has many peculiarities, but I can't help but wonder if two in particular (substitution patterns, conservatism on injuries) have been influenced by his developing relationship w/ Erik Spoelstra and his (literal) front row seat for the Heat's improbable playoff run.
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He also hosted Erik Spoelstra at training camp in 2022, where the two exchanged ideas.

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Here is McDaniel speaking about Spoelstra's visit to Dolphins camp, things they talked about. He emphasized their discussions about contemporary practices being less physical, less demanding, all tied in with workload management (i.e. injury prevention).

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When TEs function like WRs the defense is going to hit them with more DBs and tighter coverage. So either that TE can *really* get open and show the speed and maneuverability of a WR vs DB, or the offense has to zig another direction and take advantage of the new size mismatch.
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Next Gen Stats uses the RFID chips in players pads to model out each player and each play, detecting when a pass rusher beat his pass blocker(s) within 2.5 seconds.
Denver also went from a #15 ranking in Team Run Block Win Rate in 2021...all the way to a #4 ranking in 2022.

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This weekend we saw a very important proof of concept from the Miami Dolphins defensive front.

TL;DR we finally got some evidence that the changing philosophy surrounding Miami’s blitz tendencies, which was symbolized by their trade for Bradley Chubb, may actually work.
Cleveland has a legit OL. PFF’s unit pass pro efficiency rates (prior to Sunday) had the Browns 7th best in keeping rushers off their QB. Jacoby Brissett was the 6th-least pressured QB in the NFL despite having the 4th-longest “time to throw” average on his non-pressured throws.
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Oct 19, 2021
I said during the Jags game people haven't quite caught up yet to Tua's rhythm inasmuch as he consistently starts fast in the 1st quarter and finishes fast in the 4th quarter. He's got a 98 passer rating in Q1 and a 109 passer rating in Q4...and a lot of mediocrity between.
This is a winning formula. You need the offense to start fast and finish at the end of the game. Both are key elements of playing complementary football. Tua seems a natural in that rhythm.

He paces for 37 TDs per season in 1st quarters, and 60 TDs per season in 4th quarters.
I'm not excusing the mediocre Q2/Q3 production. It seems like the mark of a young QB who isn't quite getting how defenses adjust to him once he gets beyond the scripted periods of the game, and before the end when the length of the game has given him a feel for the defense.
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With all due respect to the outstanding @davehydesports, without whom you probably wouldn't be following me on Twitter or listening to me on podcast, I think the fortunes of NFL players are too topsy-turvy to declare a winner solely based on the value of certainty vs uncertainty.
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There was a time when Vince Young had just won NFL Rookie of the Year, but the jury was still out on a young Jay Cutler from the same draft class. Young's career fizzled died quickly after and Cutler, while clearly not perfect, had a successful NFL career.
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