Mike McDaniel has many peculiarities, but I can't help but wonder if two in particular (substitution patterns, conservatism on injuries) have been influenced by his developing relationship w/ Erik Spoelstra and his (literal) front row seat for the Heat's improbable playoff run. McDaniel has embraced other Miami pro sports in a way I've not seen from another head coach. He's at the Panthers games banging the drum. He was at virtually all of Heat home playoff games.

He also hosted Erik Spoelstra at training camp in 2022, where the two exchanged ideas.

I took a closer look at the explosive plays the Bills were able to hang on the Dolphins defense. Here’s a video of all the plays, plus som angles that show a point. Common themes are bad angles in space, broken coverages, and a scheme that at times asked too much. (Videos Below) First play should look familiar. It’s a zero blitz. There are no safeties deep, and Dolphins are bringing 6 players on the rush. If you’re doing this, you have to get to the QB. If the QB is left taking a leisurely stroll thru the park, you’re hanging your CBs out to dry.

This matchup on the near side between Kader Kohou and Stefon Diggs was allowed to turn into one of those 1-on-1 practice drills that so strongly favor the WR that someone like Brandon London ends with a viral video looking like Drake London.

Kohou is a promising player, but still only in his second year out of Texas A&M Commerce (a school I didn’t even know existed), and perhaps more importantly, this is only the second game in his career where the Dolphins asked him to work exclusively on the perimeter. In a new scheme. He had been primarily a slot guy until the Broncos game.

This is a theme throughout the clips, Dolphins really throwing Kader into the fire covering Stefon Diggs anywhere he goes, without safety help, while Josh Allen could read Tolstoy in the backfield and casually launch the ball with that alien arm.

For years the NFL has played with TEs who blur the line between TE and WR, sacrificing blocking in the process. It feels like defenses inch closer and closer toward accounting for those guys with more DBs. Darnell Washington is a guy who blurs a different line, between TE and OT. When TEs function like WRs the defense is going to hit them with more DBs and tighter coverage. So either that TE can *really* get open and show the speed and maneuverability of a WR vs DB, or the offense has to zig another direction and take advantage of the new size mismatch.

I'm aware of the narrative coming out of Denver about their OL and particularly fired OL Coach Butch Barry, who is now Miami's OL Coach.

I'm just a little bit curious about the fact that actual OL-oriented performance metrics seem to fly completely in the face of the narrative. Denver went from a #16 ranking in 2021 via ESPN's Team Pass Block Win Rate metric, to a #9 ranking in 2022.

Next Gen Stats uses the RFID chips in players pads to model out each player and each play, detecting when a pass rusher beat his pass blocker(s) within 2.5 seconds.

This weekend we saw a very important proof of concept from the Miami Dolphins defensive front.

TL;DR we finally got some evidence that the changing philosophy surrounding Miami’s blitz tendencies, which was symbolized by their trade for Bradley Chubb, may actually work. Cleveland has a legit OL. PFF’s unit pass pro efficiency rates (prior to Sunday) had the Browns 7th best in keeping rushers off their QB. Jacoby Brissett was the 6th-least pressured QB in the NFL despite having the 4th-longest “time to throw” average on his non-pressured throws.

I said during the Jags game people haven't quite caught up yet to Tua's rhythm inasmuch as he consistently starts fast in the 1st quarter and finishes fast in the 4th quarter. He's got a 98 passer rating in Q1 and a 109 passer rating in Q4...and a lot of mediocrity between.

https://twitter.com/ckparrot/status/1450469050157604868

This is a winning formula. You need the offense to start fast and finish at the end of the game. Both are key elements of playing complementary football. Tua seems a natural in that rhythm.

He paces for 37 TDs per season in 1st quarters, and 60 TDs per season in 4th quarters.

With all due respect to the outstanding @davehydesports, without whom you probably wouldn't be following me on Twitter or listening to me on podcast, I think the fortunes of NFL players are too topsy-turvy to declare a winner solely based on the value of certainty vs uncertainty. This is extreme, but true: there was a time in 2004 it appeared Drew Brees was a bust, as the Chargers had just taken Phil Rivers #4 overall to replace, and AJ Feeley's star was ascendant, as the Dolphins had just traded a 2nd rounder for him. They were in the same draft class.

After NE gave Miami's OL a pass by rushing only 3 players on a lot of downs, trying to take advantage of Miami's weakest unit by getting the job done with a small budget so they could send resources elsewhere, Buffalo decided to pounce on the weakness. They hit pay dirt. There are a lot of uncomfortable conversations and feelings happening behind those walls today, I have no doubt. Flores has burned through 14 offensive coordinators and 27 OL coaches in less than 3 years and that's contributing. Personnel choices on OL have been...bad.

Today seems to be the day everyone's penning their Miami quarterback situation columns.

I've been tweeting a lot about different aspects of Miami's QB/OC situation. So let's try and put it all together.

@3YardsPerCarry @5ReasonsSports Let's start with some facts.

When allowed to go Empty Backfield, about 90% of passes Tua throws hit an open receiver right on the hands. We're talking 34 of 42 complete with 3 drops, a little over 8 yards per completion. It comes out quickly, accurately, and SAFELY (no INTs).

Some splits I put together watching the film.

Tua Tagovailoa No Huddle:
32 of 41 for 344 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT, 102 rating
2 sacks for -19 yards

Tua Tagovailoa Empty Backfield:
34 of 42 for 281 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, 102 rating
5 sacks for -16 yards

@3YardsPerCarry Tua came out of college as, to paraphrase Trent Dilfer, the best Four Verts QB college football had ever seen.

Shouldn't surprise anyone how good he is operating from empty backfield. What's funny is 3 of the 8 incompletions were drops, and the sacks weren't really bad ones.

On several of Chan Gailey's Q&A sessions he's stated when he retired, he threw away his notes on defensive coaches; that he's relying on assistants to tell him tendencies of e.g. Rod Marinelli. I wonder what role that's playing in all of this. @3YardsPerCarry @5ReasonsSports Gailey also separately said what happened in the Broncos game is Fangio did things they hadn't prepared Tua for, and Chan took the blame for that.

During pre-game warmups in Vegas, the sideline reporter noted Miami seemed anxious, not knowing what Marinelli's approach would be.