1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Not Having a House Speaker
The House is on the edge of history: going for a protracted period of time without a Speaker.
It is impossible to overstate just how significant this problem could be.
2) The Speaker of the House if the “Constitutional Officer” of the legislative branch of government and is the first such figure listed in Article I of the Constitution.
3) The House cannot truly function without a Speaker. And the House can do no legislative work on the floor without a Speaker.
Yes, committees can continue to function. Some committees will be naturally distracted because there is no Speaker.
4) Some committees could grind to a halt because they don’t want to pursue anything without a Speaker in charge. Moreover, some lawmakers may question the wisdom of committees continuing their work if the House is stymied at electing a Speaker.
5) House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) says impeachment will continue.
6) But some Republicans who are dubious of impeachment have privately wondered to Fox about the wisdom of that when the Republican-led House can’t even hold on to its own Speaker and must fund the government without relying on Democratic votes.
7) The House won’t vote on Speaker until Wednesday at the earliest. Republicans plan a candidate forum on Tuesday, October 10. And remember, the House must continue to vote. And vote. And vote. Until it elects a Speaker.
The record is two months in in 1855-1856.
8) Fox is told that this operation may take a while – considering the fact that McCarthy’s race in January took 15 rounds over five days in January.
The House is even more divided now. So landing on a winning candidate by Speaker may take a while.
9) Thus, the Speakership may be vacant for an extended period.
What are the consequences of that?
The government runs out of money in mid-November. The absolute, doomsday, Death Star scenario is to have the government shut down without a House Speaker.
10) The House could not even vote to re-open the government because it doesn’t have a Speaker.
There are also national security consequences here.
The Founders did not envision having the legislative branch of government without a Speaker for an extended period of time.
11) Such a scenario could sow chaos throughout the federal government is the House is paralyzed. Moreover, there’s an optics problem for the U.S. to the rest of the world. Don’t think that China, Russia and North Korea aren’t tracking this closely.
12) Moreover, the lack of a Speaker for an extended period of time means could rattle the markets. There could be financial fallout. The Dow dropped more than 500 points at one point today – partly because of the pandemonium over the Speaker.
13) There could be other economic consequences, too.
Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) is now the “Speaker Pro Tempore.” The House engineered this position after 9/11 for “continuity of government.” McCarthy is not truly the Speaker.
14) But will “kind of” run the House until it gets a Speaker. He will also preside over the Speaker votes next week. However, since McHenry is not THE Speaker, he is not in the line of succession to the Presidency.
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1) The Hitchhiker’s Guide To How Democrats Support for Johnson Could Backfire On the Speaker
An astonishing email just hit inboxes around Capitol Hill from the House Democratic leadership team of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), House Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-MA) and House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar (D-CA):
“We will vote to table Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Motion to Vacate the Chair. If she invokes the motion, it will not succeed.”
2) So you have DEMOCRATIC leaders telling their rank-and-file members they support short-circuiting an effort to unseat House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA).
Here’s why this is a big deal:
It was thought that House Democrats would protect Johnson in some form if Greene were to trigger her resolution. That hasn’t happened yet. But it was believed that a small number of Democrats might vote to table or kill Greene’s motion, thus protecting him. Or, Democrats might just “take a walk” during that vote, diluting the voting pool in the House. That would protect Johnson by having fewer Democrats vote. Thus, Democrats could inoculate Johnson – without ever taking a vote.
3) But it is a MAJOR DEAL when the entire Democratic leadership team and rank-and-file Democrats say they would vote to protect Johnson.
Great for Johnson, right?
Maybe immediately. But there is a BIG downside here.
Such a maneuver could embolden the smaller coterie of Republicans who want to oust Johnson. And even some rank-and-file Republicans could see that Johnson is only in the job because of the Democrats. Thus Johnson is a “Democratic” Speaker. Especially since he largely did the Democrats’ bidding passing the Ukraine aid bill a few weeks ago, avoided multiple government shutdowns and passed nearly every major bill in recent months with lots of Democratic support – often with more Democratic votes than from Republicans.
This might not undercut Johnson now. But it could give those who might want his job – potentially House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) and House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) – an opportunity to use Democratic support as a wedge and perhaps challenge Johnson for Speaker next year or a leadership post in the new Congress if Republicans lose the majority.
1) User's Manual to how control of the House could flip to the Democrats before the election.
Control of the House has never changed in the middle of a Congress. But if it’s going to happen, the 118th Congress is as ripe for that possibility.
2) House Republicans face chaos in their conference. Members who planned to retire next January are now ditching Capitol Hill early. The House is an acrimonious place with yet another move afoot to dethrone the Speaker.
3) Fox is told that other Republicans are angling to get out as soon as they can. A big payday in the private sector could lure some members to cash in their voting card early.
First, let’s talk about the length of a given “Congress.”
A) From colleague Kelly Phares. There is sparring between Cotton and Tester about who is holding up an agreement to vote on the minibus spending bill.
B) Off the Senate floor, the two men came face to face while speaking to separate groups of reporters. Sen Cotton yelled at Tester over all the reporters: "Why don't you ask Senator Tester why we aren't voting?"
Sen Tester yelled back: "You can ask me anything you want!"
C) Tester then spoke to reporters: "Did Cotton say that they're holding amendments because of Jon Tester? Because if he did, he might be full of something that comes off the back of a cow"
1) There is no agreement between senators on a voting on a host of amendments related to border, migration and the Laken Riley Act. The mood in the Senate has grown increasingly dark over the past two hours and time slipping off the clock.
2) Even if the sides were to get a deal now, it would be hard to finish up before the 11:59:59 pm et deadline to align with the House.
3) “I thought we’d have it by now,” said Sen. John Hoeven (R-ND), looking at his watch, noting that deals like this usually come together around the 7 pm et hour.
When asked what the Republicans were offering, Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) replied “nothing good.”
1) Fox has learned that the Attorney General for the District of Columbia has dropped charges against Steve Nikoui for disrupting Congress during the President’s State of the Union speech earlier this month.
2) Nikoui is the father of Kareem Nikoui who was killed during the Biden Administration’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021.
Fox learned of the decision this evening. The decision to drop the charges was confirmed by the Speaker’s Office.
3) Fox was told the DC AG’s office decided not to prosecute in this case just as they have in the cases of protesters in the past.
Steve Nikoui was a guest of Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) for the speech and interrupted the President, shouting “Abbey Gate!”
1) House GOP and could mean the House is down to a one-seat majority soon, not long after Buck resignation
It is ALWAYS about the math.
That is augmented by the resignation of Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO) next week.
2) Buck tells me he will remain a member until the end of the day on March 22.
That is also the deadline for the next batch of spending bills to avoid a shutdown.
Also, the GOP majority could even shrivel more before it gets better.
3) The next special election is for the seat occupied by former Rep. Brian Higgins (D-NY) on April 30. If that seat stays in Democratic hands, the new breakdown is 432 members with 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats.