Mick Ryan, AM Profile picture
Oct 4 20 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Recently, I returned from my third visit to #Ukraine in the past year. The aim of this visit was to speak with senior military and civilian officials about how Ukraine is leveraging many elements of its national power to defend against Russia. 1/20 🧵 Image
2/ Ultimately, I want to use the insights gained on this trip, my previous trips and a variety of other research, to flesh out my hypothesis about a Ukrainian Way of War. During my Ukraine visit, I published a series at Futura Doctrina that contained some initial thoughts.
3/ My first #Ukraine Visit Diary covered some of my initial meetings in #Kyiv.
mickryan.substack.com/p/exploring-th…
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4/ My second #Ukraine Visit Diary explored the Battle of Moshchun and how Ukraine had implemented a 21st century version of People’s War.
mickryan.substack.com/p/moshchun-and…
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5/ My third entry for my #Ukraine visit diary. In it, I explore some of the important strategic themes that emerged from conversations with senior officials during my visit, and the way ahead for examining the Ukrainian Way of War.
mickryan.substack.com/p/building-a-t…
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6/ While in Ukraine, I also published an article for the Sydney Morning Herald. You can read that article at the link. smh.com.au/world/europe/t…
7/ Finally, because of the great response on social media to my ‘morning walk’ photos, I assembled a group of images for a special post at Futura Doctrina.
mickryan.substack.com/p/walking-arou…
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8/ I collected a huge amount of material during my visit. And while I have used some of it in these posts, there is much more to come.
9/ The current Ukrainian approach to war has several important themes.
10/ First, Ukraine is fighting the war as a national effort, with an array of military, diplomatic, information, technological and societal means. Importantly, it is a democratic effort and there is interesting civil-military relations studies that could be undertaken. Image
11/ Despite this effort to leverage all national means, it is far from the ‘anything goes’ approach of Russia. Ukraine is fighting within the laws of war and in accordance with international law. This is important for legitimacy domestically and in the international community.
12/ I also think this ‘just war’ approach is something that has come naturally Ukraine. There appears to be an inherent understanding in their soldiers, generals & society that doing the wrong thing would not only compromise them strategically, it would be a stain on their souls. Image
13/ Second, Ukraine’s way of war is a unique hybrid of Soviet, Western and Ukrainian cultures, concepts and technologies. There is a fascinating interplay of older Soviet and newer NATO doctrines for training, leadership and operations.
14/ While much has been achieved in the past decade, the full transition from older Soviet ideas remains an incomplete task. And, even with the influx of western equipment, more than 2/3 of their equipment is still legacy Soviet.
15/ Third, innovation and adaptation from the ground up is also a key part of this story. The practical problem solving of Ukrainian soldiers and civil companies has provided a critical edge over the past 18 months.
16/ Much of this is ‘bottom up’, but there are also examples of institutional learning and adaptation where battlefield learning is drawn into training systems. An institutional learning culture - some of it formal, some of it informal - is part of Ukraine’s way of war.
17/ Finally, those leading the Ukrainian war effort are also the result of a hybrid experience background. Many have received training in Soviet military institutions as well as NATO institutions. Image
18/ But, many military and government leaders have also gained expertise in war from the Russian operations in Crimea and the Donbas since 2014. It is a potent mix, and one that many leaders have used to good effect since the large scale Russian invasion of 2022.
19/ There is much more to this topic than I could ever hope to cover in a single thread. But I hope this provides some useful insights as I continue developing a model of the Ukrainian Way of War. End. Image
20/ Thank you to the following, whose images and links were used in this thread: @smh @DefenceU @CinC_AFU @ZelenskyyUa @TDF_UA @Militarylandnet

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More from @WarintheFuture

Sep 8
Our view of ongoing wars is always incomplete. Whether it is because of operational security, lack of media, or the fog and friction of war, much remains hidden from us. This is true for #Ukraine war. This makes predictions on the future trajectory of the war impossible. 1/24 🧵 Image
2/ But, there are certain variables which are more likely than others to have an impact on the course of the war in 2024. At this point, there are four key variables which are likely to shape this war in the coming year.
3/ Variable 1 is the strategic disposition of both sides once the muddy season, (“bezdorizhzhya” in Ukrainian) hits, around November. Ground operations after this will become increasingly difficult. The Ukrainians will want to gain as much ground as they can before this.
Read 24 tweets
Sep 2
In a recent update, @ZelenskyyUa referred to preparations for winter. These preparations by the Ukrainians are certain to have been underway for some time. Likewise, Russia will also have been planning for the coming winter. What might we expect in the coming months? 1/25 🧵 Image
2/ Forecasts for winter this year are predicting a winter similar to last year. Expect cold weather, wet weather, overcast and mud. All of these have an impact on the planning for, and execution of, military operations as well as humanitarian support.
3/ The Ukrainian Winter campaign will probably have 3 strategic objectives. First, it will want to project a sense of progress. Activity to retain support for Ukraine, prevent pointless peace initiatives, and continue the flow of equipment will be key to their winter campaign.
Read 25 tweets
Aug 28
While I have explored the impact of autonomous systems previously (in my 2018 CSBA report and in "War Transformed"), I wanted to provide some updated observations on their employment in #Ukraine and beyond. My latest at @abcnews 1/14 🧵
abc.net.au/news/2023-08-2…
2/ It comes in the context of this recent Washington Post piece where, allegedly, "Pentagon officials urged Ukraine to rely less on drones for recon." If accurate, it is probably one of the dumber observations from cubicle-based 'officials'. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
3/ For we are seeing a Cambrian Explosion in their use in the air, at sea and increasingly on the land in Ukraine, as well as within Russia and the Black Sea. The war in #Ukraine has spawned an intense period of evolution in these machines. What does this mean?
Read 14 tweets
Aug 15
My latest article at @abcnews explores the challenges of combined arms obstacle breaching in southern #Ukraine, and why mines pose such a significant challenge. A quick thread on some key elements of the piece. 1/12 🧵
abc.net.au/news/2023-08-1…
2/ The operations to penetrate the Russian defences in southern Ukraine have been subject to much scrutiny. Observations such as the lack of Ukrainian air power, poor training or insufficient Western equipment have been offered. These have played a role.
3/ But there is a more fundamental reason why operations are proceeding slowly. While military technology has advanced in the past few decades, the tactics and technologies for detecting, clearing and penetrating minefields has not advanced in the past 50 years.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 10
This is a very good short history of the Battle of Hostomel, the first major ground battle of the war in #Ukraine in 2022. When explored from the Ukrainian and Russian sides, there are excellent lessons for military #education & #training. 1/5 🧵

warontherocks.com/2023/08/the-ba…
2/ From the Ukrainian side, the importance of anticipation and force apportionment / prioritization. Understanding the terrain matters, but so does logistics. And of course, training, #adaptation, knowing your enemy, and #leadership would be key #PME takeaways from this battle.
3/ From the Russian side, surprise and shock action were important objectives and they nearly pulled it off. Intel, planning and execution of air defence suppression & air mobile operations were important. Operational design - how it fit within a larger plan - was vital.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 7
Over the past 18 months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have had to develop the capacity to plan and execute military campaigns and operations on a scale that has not been seen since the US operations in Iraq in 2003. A short thread on the many campaigns of #Ukraine 1/15 🧵 Image
2/ The Ukrainian campaigns possess a complexity that can be difficult to appreciate. They all support Ukraine’s strategy of corrosion against Russia. While much focus is paid to the southern campaign, there are a others of note. What are they, & how can the West learn from them?
3/ There are ground campaigns around Bakhmut as well as a defensive campaign in Luhansk. At the same time, some low level reconnaissance is occurring to the west in Kherson. This could be an interesting one to watch.
Read 15 tweets

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