Thread by @sumlenny

Scholz knows the art of political stalemate perfectly. He blocks delivery of #Taurus missiles because he is not afraid of any pressure from ruling coalition partners. Let me explain it in a short THREAD):
1) Scholz' party SPD is an unpopular party. It has only 17,2% support /1

2) Sounds like Scholz could be forced by his coalition partners into a right direction? No chance! Both coalition partners suffer a lot too. All together SPD, Greens and the Liberals get 38% of votes, far below the needed 50%. Well, how can Greens and Liberals pressure Scholz? /2

3) They coalition leaders have personal popularity, but it does not transform into votes for their parties;
4) The only way to pressure Scholz is to threat him with impeachment. But the German Basic Law (Constitution) is very tricky here. Impeachment is only possible when... /3

4.1) ...the parliament already has another candidate for the Chancellor position. This is called "a constructive trust voting". So before removing Scholz, 50% of deputies must agree who will be the next chancellor. Now think that the current parliament looks like this: /4

5) This means, to get 50% support for the new chancellor (and without naming him or her as a candidate, you cannot remove the acting one), you need to have an agreement either between Greens, Liberals, and SPD, or Greens, Liberals, and CDU (as Left and AfD are out of question) /5

6) This makes everything very easy for Scholz. In both scenarios, neither Liberals, nor Greens install their candidacy. Only CDU/CSU or SPD. From the CDU it can be only Friedrich Merz, he made many faux pas, and has terrible reputation not only among Greens, worse than Scholz /6

7) Another option: someone from the SPD steps forward and offers them as a kingslayer. It could be only Pistorius (the most popular SPD politician), but this is just impossible. He would burn himself the very millisecond he decides for that, and will not get votes of the SPD. /7

7.1) The SPD also will not vote for such "traitor", and the CDU will not vote for the SPD candidate, so the Greens and the Liberals will remain with their 30% of votes plus the kingslayer's vote :)
8) Scholz knows it well and he plays the coalition, who also has their interest /8

9) The interest of enjoying well-paid and secure jobs with very low responsibility, as we know: it's Scholz' fault, and they can do nothing about it. /END

10) And yes, new elections would just bring the far-right and partly neo-Nazi, totally pro-Russian AfD party into the parliament as the SECOND LARGEST party with 21% of votes - as much as the current ruling Greens and Liberals COMBINED.
Once again: Scholz knows his staff.