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Oct 5, 2023 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Russians are actively expanding their training ground facilities in the rear areas of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts and within Russia. This expansion aims to tackle logistical bottlenecks that arose after the 2022 mobilization, signifying efforts to improve infrastructure. 🧵Thread Image
2/ In this specific image, we can observe the emergence of a new training facility with fresh infrastructure within the boundaries of preexisting tank training grounds near the Novopavlivka mining settlement in the Khrustalnyi area of Luhansk oblast. Image
3/ A closer examination of the facility reveals the presence of a training lane designated for infantry and armored vehicles like tanks. Furthermore, multiple clusters of smaller buildings have emerged across the training grounds. Image
4/ Numerous expansions and enhancements to facilities like these have been occurring, particularly in late 2022 and continuing into 2023. This suggests that the russians are aiming to optimize their training facility capacities and align training programs with recent experiences
5/ While this fact may not be groundbreaking on its own, it does, in my view, signify the russian objectives of continuous mobilization and training. It underscores their commitment to a sustained, enduring war of varying intensities, whether it be low or high-intensity warfare.
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More from @Tatarigami_UA

Dec 19
When Bashar al-Assad’s regime fell in Syria, a critical geopolitical question emerged: can Russia maintain its foothold in the MENA region, and if so, how? What does this mean for Ukraine? Below are the key points from the latest Frontelligence Insight report: Image
2/ Maxar satellite images, dated December 17, show an unusual buildup of vehicles at the Tartus Naval Base. Video from site show that most of these vehicles are logistical, with only a few appearing to be combat vehicles. We identified approximately 150 vehicles and 29 containers Image
3/ It is assessed that the vehicles are likely being prepared for evacuation from the Tartus by naval vessels. Indications suggest that two Russian cargo ships, Sparta and Ursa Major, could be involved in the operation. It could take over a week for them to reach the port Ursa Major. Author: Nik Grig
Read 14 tweets
Dec 10
The Pokrovsk direction, once known as the Avdiivka direction, remains one of the most active and difficult areas. After failing to seize the town directly, as in Novohrodivka, Russian forces pushed towards south of the town, creating an increasingly dangerous situation.🧵Thread Image
2/ The fall of Selydove has allowed Russian forces to advance south of Pokrovsk, opening a path to Shevchenko, a key settlement before the town itself. With this vital position now almost lost, Russian forces can now expand to the south of Pokrovsk. Image
3/ A particularly bad development reported to our team is the growing Russian effort to target supply routes leading to Pokrovsk with FPV drones. Ground reports to our team confirm that russians have successfully deployed FPV drones with fiber-optic cables along the E-50 highway Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 5
Famous YouTuber @johnnywharris, with 6 million followers, released a video titled "Why People Blame America for the War in Ukraine." He presented his argument in it, essentially blaming the West for causing Russia's imperialistic rise. I find it necessary to respond🧵: Image
2/ In essence, Johnny claims that after the USSR collapse, Russia was excluded from Western society and draws parallels to the treatment of Weimar Germany under the Treaty of Versailles, suggesting that an unjust settlement fueled militarization in both cases
3/ So, what's wrong with that vision? First, shortly after the Soviet Union's collapse, Russia engaged in conflicts and created pro-Russian pseudo-states, a scenario it later replicated in Ukraine in 2014. Specific examples include Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 1992–1993.
Read 15 tweets
Dec 3
With Russia's budget deficit at 3.3 trillion rubles, 21% key interest rate and 2-3 million job vacancies, Russia has to choose between hyperinflation or an economic freeze, says Vladimir Milov, former Deputy Minister of Energy in an interview with Frontelligence Insight
🧵Thread: Image
2/ Vladimir Milov (@v_milov), an economist and longtime ally of Alexei Navalny, explains that Russian markets are gloomy ahead of the Central Bank’s board meeting on Dec 20. The Bank is expected to raise interest rates once again, from the current 21%, possibly to 23% or even 25%
3/ For Central Bank to continue interest rate hikes means to kill the real sector of the economy, where most companies simply don't have sufficient profitability to borrow at current interest rates (Central Bank's 21% rate translates into 25-30% commercial loan rates) Image
Read 16 tweets
Nov 25
Overnight, Ukraine carried out a series of missile strikes on Khalino Airbase in Kursk Oblast, reportedly using ATACMS missiles. Here’s what we can anticipate based on previous data gathered by Frontelligence Insight:

🧵Thread Image
2/ In recent months, the airfield had been spotted to home SU-25 close air support jets, helicopters, and UAVs. Image
3/ For some time, the airfield hasn’t been heavily utilized by Russia in the same way as other air bases. Instead, it has primarily hosted helicopters and Su-25 for close-air support, rather than for KAB deployments like those conducted from bases in Voronezh or Lipetsk.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 19
Gallup, the famous analytics firm known for its public opinion polls, recently released a study titled "Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War." The data might sound controversial, with many citing the headline without delving deeper into the survey. 🧵Thread: Image
2/ According to the latest survey, conducted in August and October 2024, an average of 52% of Ukrainians now favor a swift, negotiated resolution to the war. This a notable increase from 2023, when only 27% expressed this sentiment, reflecting a 25% increase in just one year
3/ At first glance, it might seem as though Ukrainians are giving up. However, the phrase "negotiated end to the war" is ambiguous: many, including myself, want peace and negotiations, but without capitulation. This nuance becomes clearer in the follow-up question of the poll.
Read 8 tweets

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