Amy Nixon Profile picture
Oct 6, 2023 3 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Why does what @RepMattGaetz is doing matter to economists?

When I was 11, our family took our first big vacation to Grand Cayman Island

I remember my dad handing my sister and I each a hotel key card with one instruction—“Don’t lose this”

48 hours into the week long vacation, we discovered the key cards were, in fact, magic

You see, they operated as de facto credit cards for anything you wished to purchase at the resort

“Just charge it to our room”

Ice cream served poolside, candy, toys at the gift shop, suddenly everything was within our reach with the possession of this little card

We did what any children would do—we used the cards. It was a gloriously fun vacation :)

Then came the last day

At check out, the bill comes due. The ITEMIZED bill.

“WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE ALL THESE LITTLE CHARGES?” Dad’s eyes were bulging out of his head

Suddenly we had to account for every single tiny, “just add it to the room” charge

There was a lot of austerity and garnishing of allowance in the weeks following that trip, but we learned a valuable lesson:

THE BILL ALWAYS COMES DUE

For the last 20+ years, America has been living and spending as if the bill never comes due

All of us

Our government does it, our corporations do it, our people do it

BUT THE BILL IS COMING DUE

I don’t know when and I don’t know how, but I know that it is

In what way and by whom is it going to be paid?

THAT is what most younger generations want a politician—ANY politician from ANY party—to answer for us. But they don’t. They won’t.

Love him or hate him, Matt stepping forward to ACKNOWLEDGE our debt problem and call out lawmakers for their “just add a line item to every spending bill and we will do this forever without term limits” mentality is a step in the right direction

🎤 drop
And this may be a very unpopular opinion, but try to objectively look at how a person is doing their public job

Sex scandals are everywhere and aren’t partisan

Bill Clinton and JFK were good presidents who had their share of private life failings with women
This tweet blew up a lot more than I expected

I typically avoid both long form tweets and politics like the plague 😂

I post about housing, macroeconomics and how the US debt spiral is impacting millennials/Gen Z

Follow me @texasrunnerDFW if you’re interested in these topics

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More from @texasrunnerDFW

May 10, 2024
Is it 2007 again?

Many experienced trauma during the GFC—losing homes, jobs, families

Now, we have housing PTSD

As veterans returning from war hear fireworks & flinch, thinking, “bomb!”

Today, we flinch at the rapid home price appreciation since 2020

Feels familiar

1/7 Image
But what if it’s not a bomb this time?

What if, instead, it’s fireworks? 💥

The fireworks of an exploding money supply and currency devaluation combined w/massive pandemic demographic + geographic shifts colliding with tight housing supply

2/7 Image
In the years leading up to the GFC, M2 money supply was growing well within historical norms

In the 2020 post-Covid era, M2 grew by a whopping 40%

All this newly printed money found a new home for itself in asset prices

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 29, 2024
EVERYTHING OLD IS NEW AGAIN

Let’s take a Time Machine back to 1980, shall we? 🗞️

By January 1, 1980, Heroic Fed Chair Paul Volcker had hiked the Fed Funds Rate to a whopping 14%

30 year Mortgage rates would peak near 20%

But home prices wouldn’t come down

Huh?

1/4 Image
Stubborn sellers were holding out, there was a large upcoming young demographic, and supply was lagging demand

Oh, and a Blondie ruled the Billboard Top 100, but her name wasn’t Taylor

Is this 1980 or 2024?

2/4 Image
Yesterday’s “income dichotomy” is today’s “Bifurcated economy”

The upper 1/3 of America was booming while the bottom 2/3 struggled

“Expensive units” continued to sell well, just like today’s record number of 1m+ homes being sold

3/4 Image
Read 7 tweets
Mar 8, 2024
AirbnBusted!

h/t @BowTiedBroke Image
For more details on this crazy story, follow @BowTiedBroke
AirbnBusted #2!

Zeus Living was financially backed by Airbnb too Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 27, 2023
Let’s talk about Seller Financing

AKA: This Housing Cycle’s Subprime

🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨 🚨

A five alarm 🧵

1/8 Image
What is Seller financing?

Seller financing is when the seller of a property works out loan terms with a buyer, without rigorous underwriting standards from a traditional bank or lender

It’s sometimes called a wraparound mortgage

2/8
Seller financing is a private loan with NO pre-qualifications

It enables sellers to find a buyer at the price they want to sell for, who may not otherwise qualify for a loan

Win-win, right?

So, what’s the downside?

A little something called a “Due on Sale Clause”

3/8
Read 9 tweets
Aug 19, 2023
There are 3,329 homes for sale in Austin

There are 12,127 Airbnbs in Austin

🚨 DO YOU GET IT YET?🚨 Image
Data sourced from Zillow and Inside Airbnb

Your MLS may show slightly higher or lower results on the number of homes for sale depending on the zip code lines they draw for Austin

I also excluded individual rooms for rent—these are entire dwelling Airbnbs only
Hey honey, wanna go on vacation where it’s 108 degrees and there’s no ocean?
Read 4 tweets
May 15, 2023
“Commercial Real Estate weakness is completely separate from Residential Real Estate”

WRONG.

IT’S TIME TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT BLACKSTONE

Here’s a 🧵 explaining why:

1/9
In March 2020, NYT Magazine published an article that went largely unnoticed due to an emerging pandemic

Let’s revisit it.

Starting in 2010, Wall Street began buying over $60 billion in foreclosed residential housing from American families

2/9

archive.fo/2020.03.04-152…
How did Wall Street finance this Residential RE?

“When credit was tight after the financial crisis, acquiring firms, led by Blackstone, figured out a way to generate more of it by creating a NEW FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT”

(remember how well those worked in the 2008 crisis?)

3/9
Read 10 tweets

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