“The assault began without any warning about 6:30 a.m. on the Jewish Sabbath and the morning of a festival…It was almost 50 years to the day after the surprise attack by Egyptian & Syrian forces…at the opening of the 1973 war that traumatized the nation” nytimes.com/live/2023/10/0…
“Terrified Israelis in border communities infiltrated by gunmen from Gaza were calling into Israeli television stations from their homes, speaking in whispers and calling for help.” nytimes.com/live/2023/10/0…
“A resident of Kibbutz Be’eri tells Channel 12 news that they are barricaded in their homes and believe they have been abandoned by the authorities as Hamas terrorists infiltrate their community.” timesofisrael.com/liveblog-octob…
“The Israel Defense Forces says dozens of fighter jets are carrying out strikes against sites belonging to the Hamas terror group in the Gaza Strip. The IDF says it will provide further information soon.” timesofisrael.com/liveblog-octob…
“A video from Gaza showed what looked like the lifeless body of an Israeli soldier being trampled by an angry crowd shouting “God is Great.” Another video appeared to show Palestinian militants dragging away a live Israeli soldier on a motorcycle.” timesofisrael.com/liveblog-octob…
“The attacks this morning were unprecedented in their size and their extent. Hamas has tried infiltrations before, but the Gaza border fence and security have generally prevented those attempts” m.jpost.com/israel-news/ar…
“Palestinian media reported that at least three Israeli soldiers were kidnapped by Hamas. The Israeli military didn’t immediately confirm or deny the report.” wsj.com/world/middle-e…
“Israels’s channel 13 is reporting that 7 communities are under Hamas control. These include Sderot, Nahal Oz, Kfar Haza, Magen, Sufa Beheri and general command of Gaza.” theguardian.com/world/live/202…
As of half an hour ago. “The IDF has not yet gained control in any of the locations that involve terrorist infiltration in southern Israel. Residents are still in shelters and report that no Israeli security forces nor available medical staff are on site.” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
Horrific. ‘"We are being slaughtered. There is no army. It has been 6 hours. People are begging for their lives," one Israeli in a southern kibbutz said.’ haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
Certainly a big assessment failure. “Following the recent violent escalation near the Gaza border in recent weeks, Senior IDF officers and officials in Israel's security establishment assessed last week that Hamas wishes to avoid a full-fledged war...” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
“The Israeli military said its fighter jets have hit 17 military compounds and 4 operational command centers belonging to Hamas in the past few hours. Gaza’s health ministry said Israel struck an ambulance in front of a hospital in…Khan Younis” nytimes.com/live/2023/10/0…
“The Soroka Medical Center in southern Israel's city of Beersheba said it had admitted more than 280 wounded Israelis. At least 60 were in critical or serious condition, according to the hospital.” nytimes.com/live/2023/10/0…
‘Netanyahu added that the military's second objective is to "make the enemy pay a tremendous price," and the third to secure other potentially violent arenas "so no one else will think about joining this war."’ haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
“Al Jazeera’ Youmna ElSayed is in the Gaza Strip and says that the intensity of the Israeli aerial bombardment has been increasing.” aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
“An AFP journalist saw eight bodies at the morgue of Al-Shifa Hospital, while another reporter witnessed the funeral of a ninth person killed in Khan Yunis in southern Gaza” aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
““Is everything closed because it’s Saturday, or because it’s a war time?” asked one Swiss couple looking for a place to grab a quick bite near Jaffa.” aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
“No statements were issued by the United Arab Emirates, Morocco or Bahrain on the attacks. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, both of which remain resistant to normalization with Israel, released statements calling for self-restraint and blaming Israel.” washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/…
“There was apparently no intelligence for Saturday’s shock attack from the Gaza Strip, but there were preliminary signs. Now … the possibility of a ground maneuver and occupation of the Strip cannot be ruled out.” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
“another resident of the south says his wife and daughters have disappeared, and that he has traced his wife’s phone — which doesn’t answer — to Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. He says he fears his family has been kidnapped to Gaza.” timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…
In the 2006 Lebanon war 44 Israeli civilians died. That was the highest number of Israeli civilians dead in any war since war of independence in 1948 (excepting the intifadas over a longer period). Today is going to outstrip that & likely by a big margin. bbc.co.uk/news/world-mid…
"The number of Palestinians killed in Gaze following Israel’s attacks has risen to 198, according to [Hamas] health officials. More than 1,600 people have also been wounded." aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
Hamas deputy chief: “This is not a (hit-and-run) operation; we started an all-out battle. We expect fighting to continue and the fighting front to expand. We have one prime target: our freedom and the freedom of our holy sites" aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
"Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri has told Al Jazeera that the group has captured “a big number” of Israelis. He said “senior officers” were among them.' aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
If true, this is on a huge scale. "Israeli sources estimate at least 1,000 Palestinians managed to infiltrate into Israel through four different areas. It is the first time since 1948 that these developments are on the Israeli side..." aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/…
"In addition to the rockets, Hamas had infiltrated into the country, including reportedly into an IDF base in Israel's southern district, according to an unnamed Israeli security source. Contact with the soldiers on the base was cut off." jpost.com/israel-news/de…
Sderot: 'A Channel 12 reporter in the city says there are many “bodies on the ground… terribly grave pictures, scenes that are hard to describe.” These fatalities...are victims of gunfire by Hamas terrorists who infiltrated from Gaza...not rocket attacks' timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry…
'The [Israeli] Health Ministry says so far 908 injured people have been taken to hospitals for treatment in the ongoing terror attack by Hamas on southern and central Israel. At least 100 have been killed in the unprecedented assault, authorities say,' timesofisrael.com/liveblog-octob…
This is already the single bloodiest day for Israeli civilians since the establishment of the state of Israel. And the number of casualties is going to rise considerably as the situation becomes clearer in southern border villages & towns.
That's not a war, it's a massacre. "Palestinian terrorists, who apparently infiltrated from the Gaza Strip, were filmed driving in a Toyota pick-up truck around the southern city of Sderot Saturday morning and shooting in all directions." ynetnews.com/article/rjqdmo…
Hezbollah's decision to join or stay out of this conflict will be important. "IDF soldiers fired on Hezbollah terrorists who attempted to breach Israel's north, Israeli media reported. The terrorists approached the northern border on motorcycles..." jpost.com/israel-news/de…
“The Israeli army report that the Israeli navy killed dozens of terrorists attempting to enter Israel through the sea. The army says the intruding force fired at them and hit rubber boats, naval watercraft and an agricultural vehicle” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
BBC: “We understand that dozens of hostages both military and civilian have been taken by Hamas. Some are thought to be holed up in some of the small towns near the Gaza Strip. Others we know have been taken back into Gaza.” bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl…
“Several bodies and many cars were left on the side of Highway 34, between moshav Yakhini and the southern city of Sderot on Saturday. Most of the cars were riddled with bullet holes and have shattered windows and blood on them.” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
Hamas hit four Israeli helicopters, which managed to land.
“Israeli forces are still fighting Hamas gunmen at seven to eight sites in southern Israel close to the Gaza Strip, the Israel Defense Forces’ said in a briefing this morning.” bbc.co.uk/news/live/worl…
“IDF forces fought against 70 terrorists around Kibbutz Be'eri, the IDF spokesman announced Monday morning, adding that they suspect that there is a tunnel in the area” haaretz.com/israel-news/20…
‘“In this moment, we don’t have anything that shows us that Iran was directly involved in this attack — in planning it or in carrying it out,” Blinken told NBC’s “Meet the Press.”’ washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/…
Hamas achieved strategic, operational and tactical surprise yesterday. In military terms, a devastating raid using large-scale infiltration by dismounted units across a broad front, against an enemy with very good intelligence & surveillance coverage. Lessons for Baltic states?
“active support of extremist groups stirring up trouble in the West Bank and Jerusalem meant that the Israeli Defence Forces were diverted to protect them. This is one explanation for the empty guard posts & thin lines of defence on the border with Gaza” samf.substack.com/p/hamas-attack…
“for Israel the greatest danger is that the conflict spreads, stretching the IDF, and the Iron Dome, even more...If the fighting drags on, and the images turn to those of Israeli strikes against Gaza, the pressures for Hezbollah to get involved with grow.” samf.substack.com/p/hamas-attack…
"Fifty-five Chinese sailors are feared dead after their nuclear submarine apparently got caught in a trap intended to ensnare British sub-surface vessels in the Yellow Sea...According to a secret UK report the seamen died following a catastrophic failure of the oxygen systems"
'The UK report into the fatal mission reads: 'Intelligence reports that on 21st of August there was an onboard accident whilst carrying out a mission in the Yellow Sea...Incident happened at 08.12 local resulting in the death of 55 crew members' dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1…
Rumours of a missing Chinese sub had floated around around the date of the supposed incident described in the Mail story. taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4978551
🧵 Whenever a Western government makes a contentious intelligence-based claim there is always a chorus of “WMD in Iraq!” Its worth taking a moment to reflect on how meaningless this usually is.
All intelligence is imperfect. That’s why intelligence assessments use probabilistic language. Uncertainty is unavoidable. Claims that are reflect this should generally be seen as more reliable than those than don’t (“slam dunk”).
There were a series of specific pathologies around Iraq intel. Some of them were addressed in things like the Butler review () & led to changes in assessment methods. That said, political leaders can always misrepresent intelligence claims if they want to.assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
"Post-Soviet Russia has never spent this much on the military...war expenditure has reached 37.3% of all budget spending, 2.5 times the pre-war average...By the end of 2023, army’s share of the total budget will not fall below 30%...twice pre-war level" wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…
"Based on the government’s GDP forecast for 2023, an anticipated value of 150 trillion rubles, military spending will be no less than 6.4 percent of GDP. This is three times more than the average amount countries allocate to defense (2.1 percent of GDP)." wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…
"The proportion of classified expenditures in the Russian budget was approximately 10 percent during the 2000s...Classified spending accounted for 19.2 percent of the budget in 2022 and reached 22.3 percent in the 2023 budget plan" wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/russ…