Thread by @spartyflyboy

Appeasement breeds Escalation🧵
Some still refuse to learn the lessons of the 1930ies in Europe before WW2. What happens in Israel, almost happened in Kosovo, should be a stark reminder that the danger of appeasement lies mostly in it's indirect effects - and it costs lives.
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The world, especially where it's Russia's claimed sphere of influence, is full of frozen and at times thawing conflicts. Important for the development of these conflicts often was/is the balance between revisionist powers and those who aim to preserve the status quo + order.
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Status quo powers are the western alliances. Russia, and her allies are revisionist & aim to overthrow the current system of international order. The main attack on this order arguably started with Russia's war on Ukraine, after information war and smaller conflicts worldwide.
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Enter the Wests timid response to Russian escalation in Ukraine. Torture camps, attacks on civilians, even blowing up a major dam, no escalation from Russia led to a decisive or even noticeable reaction from the status quo powers.
Instead the value of deescalation is debated.
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With the war on Ukraine Russia escalates in our very own domain, aims to conquer a country IN Europe to expand close to European heartland.
And still the calls for escalation prevention dominate, some even brag how "cheap" supporting Ukraine is in terms of Western powers GDP.
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The lack of decisiveness against Russian revisionist aggression in Europe is noted elsewhere. It raises the valid question that if the West is so engagement avers and appeasement centric, maybe now it's the time to strike and change the status quo - with Russia supporting.
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Russia's main goal is to change the current world order, show that western powers are no guarantors of order but a tiger too scared to bite.
For the Kremlin the kinetic war in Ukraine has become secondary, they aim to win by attacking western resolve.
Appeasement supports them
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As @KeirGiles , @NTenzer and @IlvesToomas have pointed out it is our very own timid response that gives Russia license to escalate. Russian escalation happens because and when we fail to deter, and not as result of protecting rule based conduct forcefully.
Failure breeds war.
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What we see in Israel/Gaza happens, among other things, cause Russia succeeded in weakening the perception of western status quo powers as efficient guarantor for stability. Success with escalation seems viable now after the West repeatedly failed to deter Russia in Ukraine.
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Up to now Russia failed with attempts to escalate in Moldova and Kosovo. They succeeded in SAHEL where Europe is retreating and seemingly ignores the migration crisis Russia is stoking using their foothold in SAHEL.
Russian ties to Gaza groups make an involvement there likely
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What happens in Gaza raises more questions. Scale of ops, level of planing, means & brutality involved are very different from Hamas usual conduct.
It's more similar to asymmetric ops orchestrated by IRGC, Wagner/GRU and IS groups.
If Russia is involved the message is global.
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The appeasement faction warned us, that a decisive response to Russian aggression would escalate and expand the conflict. That is already happening, and it happens after we have appeased - or at last failed to deter - most Russian escalation steps.
The conflict is globalizing
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The failure of appeasement approaches is yet, that an escalation of Russia's war on Ukraine isn't due to lack of deescalation - It is because Russia's assault on Ukraine was part of a broader, global attack on the international order from the get go.
As @KeirGiles writes:
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It's to be expected that proponents of appeasement will frame the expanding Russian aggression in their support. Each additional Russian escalation is framed as evidence that talks & more deescalation is needed.
Appeasement has become a dogma, a self fulfilling prophecy.
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Appeasement of Russia gives license to Russian aggression.
Appeasement gives Russian allies motivation to act with similar brutality.
Appeasement costs lives and brings instability.
Only solid deterrence, much more solid support for Ukraine, can prevent a global crisis.
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