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24 hours after Hamas’ devastating attack on southern Israel. A few thoughts. Everyone is comparing this, with good reason to the strategic surprise Egypt and Syria sprang on Israel 50 years ago in the Yom Kippur War. Israel’s failure then was due to “the concept”>
The Tom Kippur concept was that the Arab armies wouldn’t risk another large-scale war with Israel after being badly beaten in the 6-Day War. That concept collapsed then and this time around 3 concepts have collapsed >
Concept 1: Hamas is focused on building its stronghold in Gaza and won’t risk another war
Concept 2: Iron Dome, the massive border-fence, and the underground anti-tunnel sensors have denied Hamas most of its routes of attack >
Concept 2: Iron Dome, the massive border-fence, and the underground anti-tunnel sensors have denied Hamas most of its routes of attack >
Concept 3: Israel can “shrink” the conflict with the Palestinians through economic incentives and render it a sideshow. The Palestinians are just a minor nuisance.
All three concepts collapsed 24 hours ago >
All three concepts collapsed 24 hours ago >
Hamas also has a concept. It’s convinced that capturing dozens of Israeli hostages will bring Israeli society to its knees and force the government to release all Palestinian prisoners, making Hamas the top Palestinian movement, toppling Fatah. That concept will now be tested >
There’s one key difference between Yom Kippur and now. This is not a war for Israel’s survival. It’s not facing invading armies. This means despite Hamas’ devastating opening move Israel can strategize its next move. Sadly Netanyahu’s government is incapable of strategic thought>
one thought about Netanyahu. He’s not a war PM. He didn’t go to war against Hezbollah and Iran and in Gaza he was usually dragged-in. He doesn’t trust the “big" IDF, prefers air-power and special-forces and is averse to major ground offensives where the IDF can get bogged-down >
Netanyahu tried to ignore Gaza over his many years in office. He never made plans for its future and after each round of fighting there rushed to get back to other matters. Now he will be forever remembered by Israelis for this disaster coming from Gaza. That is now his legacy.
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