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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
@TimInHonolulu
Oct 9 • 12 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. I have been a lonely voice raising the alarm that #Turkey under #Erdogan poses to world peace. Please listen @JoeBiden @SecBlinken @SecDef @IDF. I was a very close observer in the war against #ISIS. One particular event deserves your attention because it may be related to
2. what happens in #Israel. It was 2016. We had worked since 2014 when I began imploring the @BarackObama administration to help the #Kurds holding on in #Kobane and by 2016 had formed the #SDF and were beginning to gain tempo against ISIS.
3. #Manbij is "the Door." It was the entrance to the false #Caliphate from Turkey. From 2014 to 2016, I watched and reported on Turkey's affiliation with ISIS. Nobody listened. Then Manbij. The choices were either fight a long protracted bloody fight in Manbij or allow the
4. ISIS fighters to leave. I agreed that saving civilian lives and the city of Manbij was the right thing to do. The deal was made and we watched the stream of white technical pickup trucks leave Manbij and head north to #Jarabulus and then disappear into Turkey.
5. Those fighters formed the base of Erdogan's terrorist army. Then, clean shaven, in new clothes returned moments after to perform in Erdogan's celebration of the 500 year anniversary of the battle of #Dabiq. That's what happened. I am a witness.
6. Please consider the possibility that Erdogan has embedded these ISIS fighters and Al-Qaeda in #HAMAS. It could be simply training or they could be engaged in active terrorist operations in Israel. It's likely both.
7. My recommendation: Every dead or captured "HAMAS" fighter should be subject to DNA testing. Find out if any of them are foreign fighters. Log any bomb vests or other suicide tactics and be aware that they may engaged in this when IDF enters Gaza. They know what's coming.
8. US @NSAGov should look for channels that Turkey and Iran are using to communicate to the forces in Gaza. There will likely be command links. Turkey likely has secured comms so there may be a way to find the packets to at least determine if they have our state of the art comms.
9. I have made the case for almost ten years that #Iran and #Russia used ISIS as tool to destabilize the #Sunni population in Syria to prevent a more-organized resistance. At least take my warning as a possible reason why you didn't spot it. Turkey is inside of our tent.
10. We are not expecting the attack to come from within.

The identification of ISIS and/or Al-Qaeda fighters in this force will implicate the 2001AUMF and POTUS' options to assist Israel with that finding would be greatly enhanced. I'm a trial lawyer. The DNA will prove it.
11. Also record the voices and identify the regionalisms. My guess is you will find north African, gulf Arabs and perhaps even Chechens. @DefenseIntel
12. I'm pretty sure this is Erdogan with al-Qaeda. If I have this, don't you think @CIA @StateDept @JakeSullivan46 should have it too? Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 9
@IDF needs to understand that they are likely dealiing with ISIS 2.0 that was likely trained and equipped in Turkey with Qatari money. I observed the hostage situation in Raqqa and this is likely to be similar. First, women commanders are better at this work.
And if you don't use women commanders you risk war crimes and making things worse. Second, you need to consider all the hostages will be killed no matter what you do. If this group is who I think they are
they will blow themselves up before letting anyone go. I hope I'm wrong but all signs point to Turkey's ISIS forces and they are seeking Armageddon not any peaceful outcome. Third, you need to not indiscriminately destroy the city. Identify where the hostages are held.
Read 10 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 7
1. Why are we hearing about Trump's disclosure of secrets to Anthony Pratt? Because Trump may have graduated to the bigtime and is looking at a charge that carries life or worse. Up to now, Trump has only been charged under 18 USC 793(e) for unauthorized retention.
2. Under the guidelines he might be looking at about ten years.

But the Pratt story is a much more serious crime under 18 USC 794 and the elements appear from the reporting to be met because Pratt is a foreign citizen. Image
3. The minimum mens rea or state of mind is having a "reason to believe" it would be used to the injury of the US. He certainly knew that submarines and other parts of our nuclear triad were among the most closely held secrets and every person in the White House
Read 7 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 6
1. I track a lot of cases. I don't recall why I tracked this one but it appears to have been fortuitous. This is a docket of a Miami Proud Boys member who was a Henry "Enrique" Tarrio associate. It appears that he may have reached a plea (dkt 43 missing) that let him have a bency Image
2. trial on an agreed statement of facts and elements in which he was just found guilty by Judge Kelly. I think he may tie up a lot of lose-ends on the two remaining conspiracies that IMO have not been charged. One I refer to as a kinetic conspiracy that had an unlawful purpose
3. of causing violence in DC as part of a coup to overthrow the government. And this photo in the agreed statement likely evidences he had an relationship to the funders, my funder conspiracy is also likely a little closer to charging. Image
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 6
1. Why did Trump wait the ten days the order set as D-Day to file this appeal? Another fail to "check the box" screw-up or is there something else afoot? The complexity of this case from a commercial litigation perspective is mind-boggling. Image
2. I don't know NY state interlocutory appeal rules but it appears that they get to appellate division without it being thrown out for lack of jurisdiction so I'll presume this is permitted. Injunctive relief was ordered so even under stingy fed jurisdiction would be appealable.
3. The AG's offer to stay until the end IMO could make the appeal moot and I would think the appellate division would go to mootness as one of an appellate court's favorite ways to avoid taking up thorny issues.
Read 8 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 5
What are the chances that the reason Musk is pursuing the DC Circuit case to reverse the order prohibiting Twitter tipping off people subject to RealDonaldTrump Stored Comms Act (SCA) search warrant is because he actually tipped off people subject to the SCA search warrant?
What if scrubbing Twitter back ups and watching the legal dept was worth $44 billion to someone?

MTG was at two meetings at the White House. One was on Jan 5 thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/2021/02/viral-…
The other was likely Dec 18 but this report says the video was Tweeted from her account on Dec 21. All of the posts that had links to her account in them prior to Jan 9 are gone with her posts. rawstory.com/rep-marjorie-t…
Read 8 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
Oct 4
1. The House Rules can't change the succession. McHenry is an acting Speaker Pro Tempore he is not the Speaker. The Rules contemplate a prompt action to replace the Speaker not to provide for a temporary Speaker who has access to the Gates Procedures disclosure or any of the
2. gang of eight privileges without a vote of the full House. @PatrickMcHenry has already shown himself a petty individual who by recessing the House without a vote exceeded the power of a Speaker Pro Tempore something that was was neither "necessary" nor "appropriate"
3. under Rule 8(b)(3)(A). His actions to cause unnecessary and inappropriate inconvenience to the former Speaker Pelosi while attending to the funeral of a member of the Senate is an affront. His adjournment for part of one legislative day plus three following legislative days
Read 5 tweets

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