@IDF needs to understand that they are likely dealiing with ISIS 2.0 that was likely trained and equipped in Turkey with Qatari money. I observed the hostage situation in Raqqa and this is likely to be similar. First, women commanders are better at this work.
And if you don't use women commanders you risk war crimes and making things worse. Second, you need to consider all the hostages will be killed no matter what you do. If this group is who I think they are
they will blow themselves up before letting anyone go. I hope I'm wrong but all signs point to Turkey's ISIS forces and they are seeking Armageddon not any peaceful outcome. Third, you need to not indiscriminately destroy the city. Identify where the hostages are held.
Assess the size of force holding them and the number of hostages. Isolate the buildings and expect that they have pre-prepared tunnels and other means of escape. Seal it up tight with remote and active surveillance. Start trying to talk to them.
Make it clear they will not get out. This is the point where you will start to be able to confirm my fear that it is ISIS. If it is they will start killing and there is nothing you can do to stop it short of bringing the building down in hopes that some hostages may survive.
If I'm correct Erdogan and Qatari officials are calling the shots. They need to be informed that they will be considered legitimate targets by Israel if they don't immediately call the terrorist to release the hostages. The US has to expose Erdogan. And the deal we have with
Qatar is a deal with the devil. We can move our force to AANES and grant it status as the only functioning government in that region and let Qatar know that State Sponsor of Terror listing is coming for them and Turkey. You need to wake up the the fact that
you don't even know who the enemy is you're fighting. I earlier posted the need to DNA test all the fighters dead or alive. Until you do you have no possibility of successfully dealing with them. If this is ISIS 2.0 you need to get ready for the carnage. But don't destroy
more of the city than needed. And women in uniform are calming for women and children. I've witnessed it for years in Syria. @SecBlinken can act to privately express that any HAMAS supporting nations will face terrorist support listings. Talks in private need to be done and make
it clear there will be no military action from the US but economic sanctions will be crushing for anyone supporting HAMAS that has now graduated to the degree of brutality that will not permit their survival or business as usual with their facilitators.
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Erdogan's unhinged anti-American rants are often just ignored but in the past day or so I've begun to detect what might be an ever-so-slight change in #US policy towards #Turkey. It might be that the decision makers who have tried to never speak ill of our #NATO ally have seen
the truth about who is behind the attack in #Israel and who is still a threat to start a regional war. When I read the early reports of the brutality and saw the facial features of some of the fighters, after nine years working on #ISIS it was my first thought. I called
for #DNA testing of all dead or captured #HAMAS and to examine all the comms to identify linguistic regionalisms. By now the folks at Ft Meade and Langley would likely have a pretty good idea if my theory held water. Even if they don't go that route, 9/11 developed a discipline
I'm guessing that Joe Biden made Netanyahu an offer he couldn't refuse. By now our folks will have looked at all the things that were missed the first time and likely see Netanyahu was talking to Moscow before the attack. I think Putin finally burned him in a desperate attempt to
slow the collapse of his Ukraine operation by diverting our attention. With Qatar and Turkey fronting HAMAS, and Iran preparing to move Hezbollah down from Lebanon with Iran's militia gangs threatening our forces along the Euphrates, Putin thinks this is his big moment.
But once again, he misjudge @JoeBiden. With the Gerald Ford on station and likely supplied long-term via Suda, we can move our forces out of Turkey for good and set up air cover for the SDF who are the largest military force in Syria. Then we need to close the door on the
1. I have been a lonely voice raising the alarm that #Turkey under #Erdogan poses to world peace. Please listen @JoeBiden @SecBlinken @SecDef @IDF. I was a very close observer in the war against #ISIS. One particular event deserves your attention because it may be related to
2. what happens in #Israel. It was 2016. We had worked since 2014 when I began imploring the @BarackObama administration to help the #Kurds holding on in #Kobane and by 2016 had formed the #SDF and were beginning to gain tempo against ISIS.
3. #Manbij is "the Door." It was the entrance to the false #Caliphate from Turkey. From 2014 to 2016, I watched and reported on Turkey's affiliation with ISIS. Nobody listened. Then Manbij. The choices were either fight a long protracted bloody fight in Manbij or allow the
1. Why are we hearing about Trump's disclosure of secrets to Anthony Pratt? Because Trump may have graduated to the bigtime and is looking at a charge that carries life or worse. Up to now, Trump has only been charged under 18 USC 793(e) for unauthorized retention.
2. Under the guidelines he might be looking at about ten years.
But the Pratt story is a much more serious crime under 18 USC 794 and the elements appear from the reporting to be met because Pratt is a foreign citizen.
3. The minimum mens rea or state of mind is having a "reason to believe" it would be used to the injury of the US. He certainly knew that submarines and other parts of our nuclear triad were among the most closely held secrets and every person in the White House
1. I track a lot of cases. I don't recall why I tracked this one but it appears to have been fortuitous. This is a docket of a Miami Proud Boys member who was a Henry "Enrique" Tarrio associate. It appears that he may have reached a plea (dkt 43 missing) that let him have a bency
2. trial on an agreed statement of facts and elements in which he was just found guilty by Judge Kelly. I think he may tie up a lot of lose-ends on the two remaining conspiracies that IMO have not been charged. One I refer to as a kinetic conspiracy that had an unlawful purpose
3. of causing violence in DC as part of a coup to overthrow the government. And this photo in the agreed statement likely evidences he had an relationship to the funders, my funder conspiracy is also likely a little closer to charging.
1. Why did Trump wait the ten days the order set as D-Day to file this appeal? Another fail to "check the box" screw-up or is there something else afoot? The complexity of this case from a commercial litigation perspective is mind-boggling.
2. I don't know NY state interlocutory appeal rules but it appears that they get to appellate division without it being thrown out for lack of jurisdiction so I'll presume this is permitted. Injunctive relief was ordered so even under stingy fed jurisdiction would be appealable.
3. The AG's offer to stay until the end IMO could make the appeal moot and I would think the appellate division would go to mootness as one of an appellate court's favorite ways to avoid taking up thorny issues.