THE SHORT BEAR Profile picture
Oct 9 7 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Cloud remains the space I have been long since mid to end 2022.

I had the change to add to these positions during Q1 and Q2 and have held tight since.

The focus is around the service companies that are directly linked to the growth of cloud. Image
Cloud security grew into a major bet through the growth my positions have benefitted from.
$CRWD $ZS ( $ZS replace $NET as per my tweet)

$GOOGL and $AMZN both are sizable as well through their 40%+ gains since the buys. Both are plays on Cloud and services around AI.
$MELI represents my bet on South America and has one of the best managements out there and pure execution within a growing space.

+21% projected CAGR and only 13% penetrated.

embodies the lessons I learned from the $AMZN bet made by Nick Sleep at Nomad. Image
$ADYEY and $PYPL

This is my latest bet on payment (processors).
Value play via $PYPL and growth via $ADYEY.

$ADYEY is in my view one of the best businesses in Europe and has plenty of growth ahead.(plenty of material on twitter)

Fintech and payment got killed over the past 2y Image
$TEAM and $DDOG are smaller stock bets.

$DDOG is a leader in observability services for cloud applications.

$TEAM is a slightly different bet based on a compounder and technical setup of slightly shorter nature.
$TLT and 20y treasuries is my newest bet.

I believe in the coming months, rate cuts or at least a QT stop will ensue from a slowdown. This is the asset I have chosen to both secure passive income and/or to reflect a short yields bet.
I have a small but increasing position within semiconductors

NO it is not $NVDA as it is overvalued imo with more competition to enter the space.Other players are more suitable to express my bet

This is a mid term bet and I will be aggressive into the next months if it lets me

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More from @TheShortBear

Aug 29
Spent some time this morning to go through prior charts to refresh my brain.

I went from the end of 2021 to now.

I will say I am just amazed at the moves from the 2021 period and just how complicated these moves were to trade in terms of risk management.

Here are examples:


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That time was all about finding an entry point near open and adding. The range (open to high/low) was immense.

Stubborn players got wrecked


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Looking back, it is a lot more chaotic than what I remember.

Sequential trading was important to understand the movement then. 'This happened yesterday/this week, thus players will tilt to this side.


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Read 7 tweets
Aug 25
$TTOO +$519,777

Good multiday setup.
It wasn't as good as $NKLA or similar from earlier this year though.

Clear dilution setup with a vote coming up on September 12th.

I am still wondering why it would even run into it(why people would buy) Image
1/ The initial day +$177,520

I thought I would include a review and my thought process straight from my 'trade recap' sheet.

Clear setup and prepared from prior multidays.

Easy trade.

Through the cushion, now I can focus on the daily swing trade.

I added back and swung 660k. Image
2/

The next day I used the prior lows and a premarket panic to cover 250k.

I proceeded to add back to a total of 600k, making sure to take advantage of the range and add back into the pop for the daily swing. Image
Read 8 tweets
Aug 23
Stanley Druckenmiller

Drunckemiller just made $46,115,000 today and +$299,368,632 this year from $NVDA.

He was the first investor to jump on $NVDA and the AI bandwagon. Image
He accumulated a heavy position starting in Q1 and then, while everyone doubted $NVDA, accumulated more and more.

His pyramiding throughout the year leaves him with a humongous profit.

$NVDA now accounts for 14%, his biggest position in his portfolio. Image
How much did he make so far?

His average is about $197.4 and owns 950,075 shares.

Total at current prices: +$299,368,632.

Duquesne manages about $5 to $8 billion in assets. They had $2.9b invested as of Q2.

$NVDA puts him up 4-6% on AUM and 10%+ on Invested capital.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 14
$NKLA +$321,103

Finished the trade idea today.

Honestly, it respected exactly what I wanted from it and I tried my best to maximize while on my travel setup.

+$471,672 between the long from yesterday and short today.

Here is how and why I played it: Image
First what people did not realize imo:

1. Antara is behind the dilution. Antara capital were the people behind the $AMC & $APE situation, they are great at structuring dilution.

They just sold their shares of $APE.

They are making moves and have time to focus on $NKLA Image
2. $NKLA is in dire need of cash

They used the timing perfectly. The Car sector is hot and $CVNA and $RIVN just went crazy.

'Let us use the eager/fomo longs to get cash back on our books. '

Perfect timing to get everyone on the wrong side and for a great fade to take place. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 5
June 2023

+$3,464,625

I am aware I am posting profitable trades and I saw some want to see the losses too.

I thought rather than looking at the wins, we would look at an entire month and specifically the losses.

Let's dissect them, look at the charts + my review process.
I want to state that while it feels like I only post winners, its partly due to my consistency lately.

My trading has been exactly where I want it to be over past months after fixing mistakes.

I am working diligently to make sure mistakes from prior years are not being repeated
June 1st.

-$27,584.77

A loss on my birthday to start the month right.

My review puts it clearly. I traded a bad setup and got punished for it.

A small size loss nonetheless which proves to me I knew it was a bad setup to begin with.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 22
Maximizing positions and pyramiding 101

A thread 🧵

This should clear up most of the questions about my outperformance and the technique I used along the way.
1/ The outperformance formula used by the largest traders
Read 6 tweets

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