Jason Furman Profile picture
Oct 10 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In my classes, I strive to create an inclusive environment for all perspectives. That's partly why I avoid public statements outside my lane. But as a member of the Harvard community, I feel compelled to address the statement from 36 Harvard student groups docs.google.com/document/d/1TG…
It is getting global attention and the sentiments it expresses are egregious. Blaming the victims for the slaughter of hundreds of civilians. Absolving the perpetrators of any agency. This is morally ignorant and painful for other members of the community.
I deeply hope--and from my experience believe--that this statement does not speak for most students. Maybe not even most students in these groups--possibly a quick first impression before the full scale of the horror perpetrated by Hamas became clear.
Listen to what 1 student in some of these groups (an econ grad student!) had to say about the statement that was allegedly in her name. I would love to hear others saying this (& you don't even need to stand with Israel, just say what Hamas did was wrong).
Our President Claudine Gay & school leaders have asked us to "foster... an environment of dialogue & empathy, appealing to one another’s thoughtfulness & goodwill". I hope to help. Acknowledging that killing hundreds of innocents is wrong should be an easy place to start. Image
I will now return to my lane.

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More from @jasonfurman

Oct 6
First reaction to jobs numbers: Shock

Second reaction: Nervousness

Further reflection: This could be quite good

336K jobs, participation remains high, wage growth moderated further. We could be in the middle of a sustainable increase in labor supply. Image
Just about everyone expected job growth to moderate. Moreover we had had as series of downward revisions and good reason to expect more. But instead we have 266k jobs on average over the last three months. Way above replacement and what was happening earlier this year.
The market is pricing in a higher chance of future hikes. But frankly I wouldn't. This is the second month in a row of lower nominal wage growth. Doesn't make it a new trend but still the 3-month annualized growth rate is 3.4%, fully consistent with inflation in the 2-3% range. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 29
The inflation data from PCE--which is what the Fed focuses on--were much better for August than the CPI data.

We now have three unambiguously good months in a row for core PCE.

Annual rates:
1 month: 1.8%
3 months: 2.2%
6 months: 3.0%
12 months: 3.9% Image
Moreover, if you take out the imputed stuff and just focus on market-based core it was even a better, a 1.5% annual rate over the last three months. Image
Just in case you're a human, here is overall inflation. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 14
The breathless debates over whether real wages are up since pre-COVID (& not sure why it's a debate--they are up) are all missing a key point: households/workers are mostly getting bigger pay increases than the data suggests.

🧵on repeated cross sections vs. longitudinal data.
The average data people cite is for a different group over time. And the groups are, to a first approximation, the same in in terms of age/experience/seniority.

If you followed the same group of people they would get a bigger raise because their age/experience/seniority rises.
Eg, average inflation-adjusted wages for production and non-supervisory workers were $28.38/hr in Feb 2020 and $29.00/hr in Aug 2023, a 2.2% increase.

But the 2023 group includes often lower-paid young people who were not working in 2020 while dropping higher-paid retirees.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 13
We had 2 consecutive unqualifiedly good CPI reports. I was hoping for a 3rd but this one is only qualifiedly good. Not a huge concern but some.

I'm focused on core CPI which grew at a 3.4% annual rate after 2 months <2%. Image
Note, I'm not worried about headline inflation. It was very high in August and the 12-month rate rose from 3.2% to 3.7%.

IS a good measure of how August was a difficult month for households with an 11% (sa) increase in gasoline.

But IS NOT a good predictor of future inflation. Image
Back to core. When you see a number like this you like to look for special factor "excuses". The go-to has been shelter which is lagged but was the slowest growth in 2 years. Yes can slow more but probably not a lot more. Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 3
A nice write-up of the stunning increase/level of the deficit by @JStein_WaPo. In fact the increase is so stunning that you have to think that at least some of it is transitory noise. But some of it probably is not just transitory noise.

A 🧵. washingtonpost.com/business/2023/…
Note: My numbers below depart from the official numbers in that they do not count a ~$400b cost in FY 2022 for student loan debt relief that never happened nor do they count a similar-sized saving that will likely show up in the FY 2023 numbers as a result of the SCOTUS decision.
Based on the latest CBO rough estimate the deficit will rise from about 4.0% of GDP in FY 2022 to ~7.8% of GDP in FY 2023. (In nominal dollars is more than doubling from a bit less than $1 trillion to a bit more than $2 trillion.)
cbo.gov/publication/59…
Read 15 tweets
Aug 29
The immaculate loosening of the labor market continues as the quits rate hits a landmark 2.3% in July, which is where it was prior to COVID.

The quits rate is a good predictor of inflation--and a good benchmark for how workers are perceiving the labor market. Image
The job openings rate also has fallen from a peak of 7.4% in March 2022 to 5.3% in July. It is still 1.4 standard deviations above pre-COVID (although some argument that it was trending up prior to COVID so may be less tight then it seems). Image
Remarkably both of these have happened without any increase in the unemployment rate. That is why it is an "immaculate loosening," somehow labor market demand has cooled without jobs being lost. Image
Read 9 tweets

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