Thread by @TrentTelenko

Since most are focused on the Israel Hamas War, I'm going to put up something truck related on Ukraine with this :

"Ukrainian Scouts Successfully Destroy Occupiers and Their Equipment Near Bakhmut With Drones (Video)"

RuAF truck🧵

1/
en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian…

There is not much text in that article, but by gum, it has this literally killer 3 min. 8 sec FPV greatest hits video by Ukraine's SBU:

2/

The compilation FPV strike video at that link is just amazing.

I counted the following vehicles and skewed two uncertain shots as large tactical trucks:

BTR-80/82 - 1
Kamaz/Ural Tactical Trucks - 3
SUV/Pickup Trucks - 6
UAZ/Loaf/Scooby Doo vans - 20

3/

Giving the RuAF the benefit of the doubt in skewing the video to the largest logistical vehicles supporting #Bakhmut

68.9% of RuAF logistical vehicles were UAZ-452 family vans.
20.6% were SUV/Pickups.
10.3% were tactical trucks.

4/

#Bakhmut is a priority front for the RuAF...

...and almost 90% of its October 2023 logistical vehicles are UAZ vans and SUV's.🤯

We are deeply into Russia's "3rd Army" in Ukraine in terms of the available logistical vehicles within the now 20 km range of AFU's FPV drones.

5/

This means a great deal in terms of the artillery heavy RuAF's power projection capability inside Ukraine

The 1st RuAF Army with 4,000 tactical trucks and contract soldiers lasted 6-to-9 months.


6/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1506768521551826951

The arrival of GMLRS in late June/Early July 2022 had a lot to do with that.



6/

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1593573406829678593

The 2nd Russian logistical vehicle army, from Sept 2022 onward, was made up of a trickle of new Kamaz trucks, reactivated Ural trucks and an increasing percentage of the UAZ/loaf/Scooby Doo vans.

This December 2022 video is typical for that 2nd period.
7/

https://twitter.com/TimGravett/status/1599097299590066176

And an apples to apples 31 July 2023 look at FPV drone kills in the priority #Bakhmut direction showed a 50-50 ratio of Kamaz tactical trucks to UAZ "loaf" vans.

Which tells us a great deal about the attrition of RuAF trucks in the last 2.5 months😱

8/

https://twitter.com/Orc_ribat/status/1685978025379110912

What has marked this 3rd Russian truck logistical army was less the Kamaz/Ural tactical truck to UAZ van mix than the following:

1. The systemic tire shortage for tactical trucks documented in June 2023...

9/

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1666935969562628096

1. (con't)...and a similar tire shortage for UAZ/Loaf/Scooby Doo vans documented in Mid-September 2023.

10/

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1703522829122109713

2. The use of SUV's to resupply self-propelled artillery.

When it comes to its wheeled tactical logistical vehicle fleet in Ukraine, Russia has drifted into the attrition loss endgame.


11/

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1710243774385778899

In fact, all the key attrition warfare metrics for personnel & equipment say RuAF is on the way down. (See⬇️)

Armies collapse without adequate logistics (Read enough trucks properly organized & used) plus adequate combat leadership.


12/

https://twitter.com/Cyberdefensecom/status/1710264657733103770

This happened to the Imperial Russian Army in 1917.

Yet the 🇷🇺 promoters & appeasers (AKA see DC de-escalation) are both more vocal & confident by the day.

They reject the notions & mathematics of attrition warfare, and fervently believe that all war is fast maneuver war.

13/

If you cannot achieve a continuous Blitzkrieg you are losing, and damn the historical experience.🙄

This is astounding.🤡

Materiel attrition can be recovered potentially quickly, with enough cash in hand.

14/

But the Ruble crash to one US penny to a Ruble means 🇷🇺 lacks foreign exchange cash.

And how does 🇷🇺 recover from the kind of deep personnel attrition @Cyberdefensecom calls out, especially in junior and mid ranking RuAF officers?

14/

And in a non-commissioned officer free, 🇷🇺officer-centric structural leadership model?

What motivates these people to believe that 🇷🇺 is looking better on key attrition metrics when all of the 🇷🇺 milbloggers say the RuAF are going down is incomprehensible.🤦‍♂️

15/

This is proof that the Dunning Kruger effect is at work.

The less these 🇷🇺 promoters & DC appeasers know, the smarter they imagine themselves to be.

16/

It's quite obvious that when it comes to evidence of enormous🇷🇺 truck and personnel losses.

These 🇷🇺 promoters & DC appeasers are filtering data to get the desired "invincible Russia" preconception

D--n the data, full "invincible Russia" ahead


17/17 End

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1711133099600322781

@threadreaderapp unroll please.