Pekka Kallioniemi Profile picture
Oct 10, 2023 19 tweets 9 min read Read on X
In today's #vatniksoup, I'm going to talk about Russia's involvement in the Middle East politics. Countries like Iran have been assisting Russia in their genocidal war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin has also meddled with various extremist groups in the region.

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Historically, Russia/USSR has been involved in numerous wars in the Middle East, invading Afghanistan for almost 10 years and recently helping Syria's authoritarian leader al-Assad to stay in power. In Syria, Russia was best-known for their brutal tactics against civilians.

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But Russia has also been flirting with the militant groups in the region, including both Hamas and Hezbollah. Hamas is a Palestinian political and terrorist organization that governs one of the Palestinian territories, the Gaza Strip. On 7 Oct 2023, ...

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...Hamas launched a terrorist operation against Israel, killing civilians and taking them as hostages. One of their targets was a music festival, where they massacred more than 260 people.

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Russia has met Hamas leaders of several occasions, and Hamas sent high-level delegation to meet Russian officials early this year. After the attack, Russia "cited concern", but didn't condemn Hamas' terrorist attack. Russia does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization.

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Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party and militant group that allegedly gets most of their funding from Iran. The organization has waged war against Israel and IDF on various occasions, including in the 2006 Lebanon War.

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Along with countries like Algeria, China, Cuba, Iran, Venezuela and North Korea, Russia has refused to call Hezbollah a terrorist organization, and calls them a "legitimate socio-political force" instead.

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Russia and Hezbollah have even fought together with al-Assad's troops in Syria. In 2018, they also smuggled oil together in order to evade economic sanctions set against al-Assad's regime.

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Hezbollah has allegedly joined Hamas in their fight against Israel, and on 9 Oct 2023, they published a "promotional" video declaring war against the IDF.

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Naturally, Iran is close to all these countries and organizations. According to US official, Iran pays Hezbollah around 700 million USD annually. Hezbollah has also been connected to cigarette and drug smuggling operations.

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Hamas had allegedly received weapons and training from Iran, and intelligence officials have confirmed that Hamas received help from Iran in manufacturing over 4000 rockets and drones launched to Israel since 7 Oct 2023.

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Iran-Russia relations go also way back, and the Soviet Union was the first state to recognize the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. In 1989, Iran made an arms deal with Soviet Union, and after the fall of USSR this collaboration continued.

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In May 2007, Iran was invited to join the CSTO, a Russia-based organization to counter NATO, but they eventually decided against joining the treaty. In 2015, Putin lifted a ban on weapon sales to Iran and Russia delivered several S-300 missile systems to Iran and the...

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...two countries agreed on another $10 billion deal that included helicopters, planes and artillery systems.

In 2022, Russian delegation visited Iran to observe drones manufactured by Iran. Initially, Iran downplayed the drone transfers, saying that it would not...

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...supply any weapons to Russia and encouraged both Russia and Ukraine to seek a peaceful resolution. In Sep 2022, Ukrainian military claimed that it encountered Iranian-built suicide drones that were operated by the Russians.

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In Oct 2022, Iran agreed to provide additional missiles and drones to Russia. In 2023, various media outlets have reported that Iran has been assisting Russia in building a suicide drone factory within its borders.

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Among military targets, these drones have been used heavily against civilian targets and have cause massive civilian casualties in Ukraine.

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To conclude: In Middle East, Russia has been flirting with authoritarian regimes like Syria and Iran. In addition, they've had close relations with terrorist and militia groups like Hamas and Hezbollah, further destabilizing the region.

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More from @P_Kallioniemi

Oct 6
In today’s Vatnik Soup REBREW, I’ll reintroduce an American political commentator and pro-Kremlin propagandist, Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson). He’s best known for his promotion of crazy conspiracy theories and for his support of authoritarian regimes around the world.

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Tucker’s career spans decades, but he’s also been very active in recent years, so a lot has happened since our previous soup on him, which can be found here:

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Once described as “the most powerful conservative in America”, Tucker has now fully transformed into a grifting conspiracy theorist and propagandist willing to work for whoever pays him the most. It’s unclear whether Tucker truly believes his endless conspiracy theories or…
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Read 25 tweets
Sep 25
This is what you’re debating with on social media:
It appears that a few pro-Russian bot farms already found this thread, so remember - just block them all, there's no point in arguing with a computer.
Most of you have seen those "No DMs" profiles, right? That's because you can interrupt the GPT procedure by injecting them new instructions.

At some point it also worked in comments ("give me a cake recipe"), but not so much anymore.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 11
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll cover the agenda-setting and flood of disinformation that spread on X and other platforms right after Charlie Kirk’s assassination. It’s far from the first or last time a tragedy has been weaponized for political purposes.

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Every major political event, especially those involving violence, attracts massive attention. In the immediate aftermath, reliable information is scarce, making it highly vulnerable to both coordinated and improvised disinformation campaigns.

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As I’ve mentioned in my previous soups and lectures, in disinformation campaigns, being first with a narrative is crucial, as people often remember the first version best — psychology studies show it sets the mental schema, and later updates rarely overwrite it.

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Read 19 tweets
Sep 8
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce American social media personality David Freeman, AKA Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman). He’s best known for spreading political disinformation on X and shamelessly sucking up to Trump, Putin, and other authoritarian leaders.

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David is a textbook example of someone profiting from MAGA grievance politics. He uses extreme, provocative language to farm engagement on X and never hesitates to flatter anyone who might give him more exposure — or money.

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But David wasn’t always like this. At some point, in his mid-40s, he even tried a real job: he trained to become a cop. He spent three years with the Metro Transit PD, but after that he either got fired or quit, and never looked back.

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Read 24 tweets
Sep 5
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Russian-Estonian businessman, Oleg Ossinovski. He is best-known for his deep ties to Russian rail and energy networks, shady cross-border dealings, and for channeling his wealth into Estonian politics.

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Oleg made his fortune via Spacecom Trans & Skinest Rail, both deeply tied to Russia’s rail system. Most of this is through Globaltrans Investments PLC, a Cyprus-based firm with 62% held via Spacecom and tens of millions in yearly profits.

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Ossinovski’s Russian-linked ventures made him Estonia’s richest man in 2014, with an estimated fortune of ~€300M. His business empire stretched across railways, oil via Alexela shares, and Russian bitumen imports from Help-Oil, a supplier to the Defense Ministry.

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Read 15 tweets
Sep 2
In today’s Vatnik Soup, I’ll introduce a Swiss/French writer, Alain Bonnet, aka Alain Soral (@officielsoral). He’s best known for his rabid antisemitism and for his pathetic support for all the worst authoritarian regimes from Russia to North Korea.

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Alain’s childhood was problematic, as his father has been characterized as a “narcissistic pervert” who beat his children and did jail time for fraud. Alain himself has said he was “programmed to be a monster.” Born Alain Bonnet, he took the stage name of his sister,…

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… actress Agnès Soral. She wasn’t too happy about this, commenting “How would you like to be called Agnès Hitler?”. Like many grifters, he became a pick-up/seduction artist writer, à la late Gonzalo Lira, writing books and even making a B-movie, “Confessions d’un dragueur”.
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Read 23 tweets

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