Veteran banker calling for "TARP 2.0" in Op-Ed to help banks with steep unrealized losses on their securities holdings
Proposal would lend up to $1 Trillion against securities that have lost value to Fed's "meteoric increase" in interest rates
1/5
It would be a "Trapped Asset Relief Program" instead of "Troubled Asset Relief Program."
Author wants U.S. gov to allow banks to borrow on a secured basis by pledging investment collateral & borrowing at the weighted average rate of that collateral.
h/t @TheBondFreak
2/5
Funded by warrants issued to Treasury on behalf of FDIC/Fed, this assistance would only be applicable to available-for-sale securities, not held-to-maturity.
As of writing, this is a highly non-conventional approach, and not one that I'm aware gov is considering.
3/5
Author estimates this financing would be 300 basis points below market rate, on $1 trillion of potential borrowings would cost $30 billion per year. That's a lot of warrants...
(warrants are similar to a dilutive version of a long-duration call option)
4/5
The "bailout" would not be the loan itself, but the exceptionally low interest rate of the loan (well below what the U.S. government borrows at, likely).
$30 billion per year in warrants is... a lot of warrants. No call for preferred equity as in original TARP
5/6
Just want to re-iterate, as I indicated earlier in this thread, this idea is not a policy proposal coming from the government. It's a banker writing an Op-Ed in @AmerBanker
It's VERY rare for the yield curve to undergo prolonged bear-steepening while inverted.
The last time bond market saw meaningful "quadruple bear inverted steepening" was during early Volcker years of 1981 & 1980.
Tended to happen at or around a local top in yields.
1/8
Before I share methodology, a huge caveat:
This isn't a predictive model. Over past 18 months, far smarter & more experienced people than I have had sophisticated backtests incorrectly indicating bonds were a buy... I have no reason to believe this backtest will do any better
Here are a few reasons why Michael's measure of Fed liquidity has increased:
-QT slow roll-off
- fall in bond volatility
- Fed lending during bank stress (DW+BTFP)
- draining of Treasury General Account (TGA)
- outflows from the Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) facility