Jack Farley Profile picture
Oct 10 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Veteran banker calling for "TARP 2.0" in Op-Ed to help banks with steep unrealized losses on their securities holdings

Proposal would lend up to $1 Trillion against securities that have lost value to Fed's "meteoric increase" in interest rates

1/5 Image
It would be a "Trapped Asset Relief Program" instead of "Troubled Asset Relief Program."

Author wants U.S. gov to allow banks to borrow on a secured basis by pledging investment collateral & borrowing at the weighted average rate of that collateral.

h/t @TheBondFreak

2/5
Funded by warrants issued to Treasury on behalf of FDIC/Fed, this assistance would only be applicable to available-for-sale securities, not held-to-maturity.

As of writing, this is a highly non-conventional approach, and not one that I'm aware gov is considering.

3/5
Author estimates this financing would be 300 basis points below market rate, on $1 trillion of potential borrowings would cost $30 billion per year. That's a lot of warrants...

(warrants are similar to a dilutive version of a long-duration call option)

4/5
The "bailout" would not be the loan itself, but the exceptionally low interest rate of the loan (well below what the U.S. government borrows at, likely).

$30 billion per year in warrants is... a lot of warrants. No call for preferred equity as in original TARP

5/6
Just want to re-iterate, as I indicated earlier in this thread, this idea is not a policy proposal coming from the government. It's a banker writing an Op-Ed in @AmerBanker

Here is full piece (paywalled):


6/6americanbanker.com/opinion/u-s-ba…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jack Farley

Jack Farley Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JackFarley96

Oct 3
Banks own substantially more duration (interest rate exposure) than meets the eye.

Their willingness to buy U.S. Treasurys could be lower than anticipated.

Quick thread 🧵

1/7 Image
Nominally (blue line), U.S. commercial banks own as much agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) now as they did in January 2021.

But the same holdings give roughly 3 times as much interest rate exposure, or duration.

2/7 Image
In January 2021, the value of the entire commercial banking system's holdings of agency MBS would move ~$55 Billion per 100 basis point move in rates.

Now, the move is over $150 Billion. Even though holdings are roughly the same

3/7 Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 29
It's truly stunning that in 2020, with rates near 0, many U.S. banks could buy an option to insure against an interest rate shock.

The cost of this option: 0.02% (!!)

A similar option for U.S. homeowners is now nearly 100x as expensive.

Here's how it worked: 🧵

(1/31)
Most banks are members of the Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system, a financing vehicle with the implicit guarantee of U.S. government.

Established in 1932 during Great Depression, the FHLB system allows member banks to borrow at near-market rates to meet liquidity needs
2/31
When banks borrow from FHLBs, it's called an "advance."

Many different types of advances, but there's one in particular that provides near-immunity to rising rates.

It's called a Symmetrical Prepayment Advance (SPA) & w/ benefit of hindsight, it was a SUPERPOWER in 2020

3/31
Read 29 tweets
Sep 29
It's VERY rare for the yield curve to undergo prolonged bear-steepening while inverted.

The last time bond market saw meaningful "quadruple bear inverted steepening" was during early Volcker years of 1981 & 1980.

Tended to happen at or around a local top in yields.

1/8 Image
Before I share methodology, a huge caveat:

This isn't a predictive model. Over past 18 months, far smarter & more experienced people than I have had sophisticated backtests incorrectly indicating bonds were a buy... I have no reason to believe this backtest will do any better
Here's the methodology:

- inverted 2s10s curve (2-Year Yield > 10-Year Yield)

- prolonged steepening of 2s10s curve on rolling 5-day, 20-, 60-, and 200-day basis

- bear market in 10-year notes on rolling 5- & 200-day basis
...

3/8
Read 10 tweets
Jul 18
The banking system's "dash for cash" that began in March has *likely* stopped.

I went through Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) data and made 4 charts that indicate an easing of funding pressures on U.S. banks

🧵
(1/8)
CHART #1:

After huge surge in March, FHLB net issuance of bonds has declined and even went *massively* negative in June.

This means FHLB no longer has to secure new net funding to make loans ("advances") to banks.

Net issuance = (total bond issuance) - (redemptions)
(2/8) Image
CHART #2:
For June, bond redemptions (orange line) exceeded new bond issuance (blue line), so the FHLB did a "buyback" of sorts on its bonds.

A net negative reading isn't rare... but this is the MOST negative net reading since my data set began in 2010

(3/8) Image
Read 10 tweets
Jul 11
"Banks hedging their interest rate risk is actually very uncommon"

- @StevenKelly49

Looking forward to interviewing Steven about this a few days before the banks report earnings 👀 Image
note: a fuller quote would be "hedging their interest rate risk WITH SWAPS"

assumptions about deposit beta, loan volumes, prepayment speeds and many other things are often much more important than swaps
if you read Steven's full piece you'll see "banks hedging their interest rate risk is actually very uncommon" only applies to swaps

Banks are not hedge funds... withoutwarningresearch.com/p/the-macro-st…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 22
Out now- Michael Howell @crossbordercap on:

- Fed's toolkit has created "stealth liquidity"

- Rebound in liquidity cycle supports new bull market

- Quantitative easing (QE) is "coming back, big time"

Apple 🔊
Spotify 🔊https://t.co/MpVWp6Bqwm
📈🧵1/n https://t.co/MFEyd26ujNrb.gy/9curl
rb.gy/vncw8
Michael's measure of Fed liquidity (red line) bottomed in October 2022, and he argues this has been supporting the stock market (NASDAQ in orange)...

YouTube

2/ https://t.co/dTCuC4m9TQrb.gy/tei0m
Here are a few reasons why Michael's measure of Fed liquidity has increased:

-QT slow roll-off
- fall in bond volatility
- Fed lending during bank stress (DW+BTFP)
- draining of Treasury General Account (TGA)
- outflows from the Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) facility

3/
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(