Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#Ukraine: Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the #Avdiivka area of #Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western #Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9, which are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the #Robotyne area.🧵 isw.pub/UkrWar101023

2/ Russian forces intensified offensive operations northwest of #Avdiivka near Ocheretyne, Tonenke, and Berdychi and southwest of Avdiivka on the Vodyane-Opytne line.

3/ Russian forces also attacked southwest of Orikhiv on the Pyatykhatky-Zherebyanky line, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced up two kilometers in the area.

4/ The UKR General Staff confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction, & ISW has observed footage of fighting in the area, but ISW has not seen any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances as of this writing. isw.pub/UkrWar101023

5/ Russian milbloggers are largely portraying the Avdiivka-area operations as a significant offensive effort aimed at encircling the Ukrainian force grouping in Avdiivka and capturing the city.

6/ A successful encirclement of Avdiivka, one of the most heavily fortified areas of the Donetsk Oblast front line, would very likely require more forces than Russia has currently dedicated to the Avdiivka-Donetsk City effort.

7/ Russian forces have largely deployed irregular forces along this frontline, primarily elements of the 1st DNR Army Corps and additional volunteer formations that have largely suffered from poor and abusive command culture and tensions with regular Russian units.

8/ ISW has observed no recent Russian deployments to this line.

Russian forces have also conducted grinding offensive operations for relatively minimal territorial gains near Avdiivka for the past year and a half of the war...

9/ ...and the Russian military command is likely aware that an effort to capture #Avdiivka would require more and higher-quality units than those currently deployed in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar101023

10/ The increased RU offensive operations in the Avdiivka & Zherebyanky areas coincide w/ other localized efforts in Luhansk & E. Zaporizhia, all likely aimed at fixing UKR forces & preventing UKR command from transferring reserves to critical areas of the front in W. Zaporizhia.