Erdogan's unhinged anti-American rants are often just ignored but in the past day or so I've begun to detect what might be an ever-so-slight change in #US policy towards #Turkey. It might be that the decision makers who have tried to never speak ill of our #NATO ally have seen
the truth about who is behind the attack in #Israel and who is still a threat to start a regional war. When I read the early reports of the brutality and saw the facial features of some of the fighters, after nine years working on #ISIS it was my first thought. I called
for #DNA testing of all dead or captured #HAMAS and to examine all the comms to identify linguistic regionalisms. By now the folks at Ft Meade and Langley would likely have a pretty good idea if my theory held water. Even if they don't go that route, 9/11 developed a discipline
within our IC to identity and trace #terrorists with a speed and accuracy we never previously possessed. I expect that many teams are looking at the data and trying to identify the killers. We know who most of the leaders are: They live in luxury in #Turkey and #Qatar.
By now the folks on the #NSC Principals Committee are being briefed and all the Turkey apologists may be having a bad day. In time that data will have to be shared with Congress and eventually it will leak. And anyone who still conceals Turkey's complicity would be facing a
lifetime of #Benghazi hearings but this time likely from both parties. Like any abusive relationship, there comes a time when you just have to say goodbye. I think that day may be coming soon for Erdogan and the message is being delivered by two Carrier battle groups.
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Trump's DC criminal case attorneys filed a short opposition to the Special Counsel's CIPA Sec. 4 motion where the Govt wants to show the judge, but not the defense, something regarding which they need a ruling is not discoverable or subject to their Brady obligation re
exculpatory evidence. Trump's team is trying to figure out what they have. It's secret enough to have to be kept from the defense but likely not relevant or helpful to Trump in the DC case. I've been watching all the dockets. The SDFL looks to me to be perhaps moving to a second
superseding indictment. What if the material that they can't show Trump's attorneys is the smoking gun on the unlawful dissemination charge related to the submarines or something like it? Simply out of an abundance of caution they may have decided that they can't risk not
I'm guessing that Joe Biden made Netanyahu an offer he couldn't refuse. By now our folks will have looked at all the things that were missed the first time and likely see Netanyahu was talking to Moscow before the attack. I think Putin finally burned him in a desperate attempt to
slow the collapse of his Ukraine operation by diverting our attention. With Qatar and Turkey fronting HAMAS, and Iran preparing to move Hezbollah down from Lebanon with Iran's militia gangs threatening our forces along the Euphrates, Putin thinks this is his big moment.
But once again, he misjudge @JoeBiden. With the Gerald Ford on station and likely supplied long-term via Suda, we can move our forces out of Turkey for good and set up air cover for the SDF who are the largest military force in Syria. Then we need to close the door on the
@IDF needs to understand that they are likely dealiing with ISIS 2.0 that was likely trained and equipped in Turkey with Qatari money. I observed the hostage situation in Raqqa and this is likely to be similar. First, women commanders are better at this work.
And if you don't use women commanders you risk war crimes and making things worse. Second, you need to consider all the hostages will be killed no matter what you do. If this group is who I think they are
they will blow themselves up before letting anyone go. I hope I'm wrong but all signs point to Turkey's ISIS forces and they are seeking Armageddon not any peaceful outcome. Third, you need to not indiscriminately destroy the city. Identify where the hostages are held.
1. I have been a lonely voice raising the alarm that #Turkey under #Erdogan poses to world peace. Please listen @JoeBiden @SecBlinken @SecDef @IDF. I was a very close observer in the war against #ISIS. One particular event deserves your attention because it may be related to
2. what happens in #Israel. It was 2016. We had worked since 2014 when I began imploring the @BarackObama administration to help the #Kurds holding on in #Kobane and by 2016 had formed the #SDF and were beginning to gain tempo against ISIS.
3. #Manbij is "the Door." It was the entrance to the false #Caliphate from Turkey. From 2014 to 2016, I watched and reported on Turkey's affiliation with ISIS. Nobody listened. Then Manbij. The choices were either fight a long protracted bloody fight in Manbij or allow the
1. Why are we hearing about Trump's disclosure of secrets to Anthony Pratt? Because Trump may have graduated to the bigtime and is looking at a charge that carries life or worse. Up to now, Trump has only been charged under 18 USC 793(e) for unauthorized retention.
2. Under the guidelines he might be looking at about ten years.
But the Pratt story is a much more serious crime under 18 USC 794 and the elements appear from the reporting to be met because Pratt is a foreign citizen.
3. The minimum mens rea or state of mind is having a "reason to believe" it would be used to the injury of the US. He certainly knew that submarines and other parts of our nuclear triad were among the most closely held secrets and every person in the White House
1. I track a lot of cases. I don't recall why I tracked this one but it appears to have been fortuitous. This is a docket of a Miami Proud Boys member who was a Henry "Enrique" Tarrio associate. It appears that he may have reached a plea (dkt 43 missing) that let him have a bency
2. trial on an agreed statement of facts and elements in which he was just found guilty by Judge Kelly. I think he may tie up a lot of lose-ends on the two remaining conspiracies that IMO have not been charged. One I refer to as a kinetic conspiracy that had an unlawful purpose
3. of causing violence in DC as part of a coup to overthrow the government. And this photo in the agreed statement likely evidences he had an relationship to the funders, my funder conspiracy is also likely a little closer to charging.