Thread by @AleksandrX13

AVDIIVKA, RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE;
SITUATION REPORT >>
(Thread 1/)

We've been seeing the russians suffer horrific losses at Avdiivka, but now there are indications that this disaster is worse even than it first appears.
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AN ANALYSIS OF RUSSIAN ARTILLERY SUPPORT
In the absence of effective air superiority on both sides, combats devolve into a WWI-style combat where artillery shapes the battlefield.

This means that failing to establish artillery dominance over the battlefield is a recipe for disaster. Yet this is exactly what the Russians have failed to do in Avdiivka.
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>> Russian artillery pieces are showing the effects of long use:
Firstly, while the russians have a large amount of artillery in the area, and while these units even outnumber Ukrainian units, the russian units field artillery pieces that have barrels that are largely worn out from long use - which means that their accuracy is questionable, to say the least.

Yes, the russians can blanket an area with artillery fire, but whether any of it will actually hit anywhere near where it is required is an open question.
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>> Hardened Ukrainian Defenses:
Not only that, but Ukrainian defenses in the area are extremely well built, and in my opinion the shells presently being used by russian artillery units in the area are entirely inadequate to the task of demolishing these fortifications.
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>> Effective Ukrainian Counter-Battery Fire
Couple that with the fact that Ukrainian artillery units deployed here are extremely adept at counter-battery fire, using shoot-and-scoot tactics that cause constant attrition amongst russian artillery while themselves evading counter-fire.
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All this amounts to russia having utterly failed to achieve artillery dominance of the battlefield – which also means that they are unable to effectively support assault units as they try to advance.

(2/)
LOSSES AMONG ADVANCING RUSSIAN INFANTRY AND ARMOR

I don’t believe it is necessary for me to go into detail here, as there are dozens of videos of the losses the russians have been taking all over this platform, but suffice it to say that russian losses are on a scale that is unsustainable for an army that seeks to retain its combat effectiveness.

They have more lost more than 2000 troops and 300 vehicles in the last three days.

Troops and armor are flung against hardened fortifications, and armor is sent blindly into minefields or into artillery enfilades.

There are even some reports of the russian army trying to move troops forward in assaults in unprotected trucks, instead of in armored fighting vehicles.
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While russia has proven time and again in this war that it is willing to callously sacrifice the lives of its people to attain even the smallest territorial gain, I believe that assaults such those as that being conducted at Avdiivka nevertheless strain the endurance, not only of the russian army, but of the russian state as a whole.
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This is not a ‘war of survival’ for the Russian people - that is to say, they are not fighting off an invasion on their territory.

Therefore Putin cannot expect them to show the same resolve and to absorb the same losses as they did in WWII.

That said, I believe that a ‘breaking point’ will be reached if they lose more than 500,000 troops in this conflict – and while that seems a considerable distance away, they seem to be making dedicated efforts to attain just such losses.

(3/)
THE SITUATION IN RUSSIAN FIELD HOSPITALS BEHIND THE FRONT
By all indications the numbers of wounded being brought in have entirely overwhelmed the medical facilities available, with triage being resorted to, and desperate calls being made to doctors and surgeons across russia to ‘take a vacation’, and come to help in Avdiivka.

Whether any russian doctors fortunate enough to not be in Ukraine will be naïve enough to rise to this plea remains an open question.

RUSSIAN SETBACKS ON THE BATTLEFIELD
After the horrific price paid in their advances to the north of the city, where their forces had some success, taking a waste heap near a coke plant (shown below) that could serve as a strong point, there are now reports coming in that Ukrainian forces have pushed their forces back and have re-taken these areas.

(4/)
THE ESSENTIAL FAILINGS OF THE RUSSIAN ARMY

The essential failing of the russian army is in that they are actually still – in part – applying methodologies and tactics that showed success in Syria – where they faced a poorly armed opposition, or where they were even acting against civilian populations.

It is also crucial that the russian armed forces expended their entire stocks of many crucial munitions in Syria, including the long-range precision missiles that would have allowed their aircraft to remain out of range of light anti-aircraft weaponry – which is precisely why they do not at present posses air superiority over the battlescape.

Russia desperately tries to adapt, for example, as it has done in the procurement of Iranian drones, as well as in their own production and upgrading of Lancets.

However, by and large, they still use the disastrous methodologies that would have been acceptable in WWI, but which, today, result in losses of irreplaceable veterans soldiers, and the reduction of their army in combat expertise until it will essentially be composed of raw recruits and conscripts.