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Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Oct 14 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo

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NEW 🚨

German finance minister Lindner tells me:
“this a standing invitation for the UK if you want to intensify your trade relationship with EU - Call Us!”

Saying post Brexit trade barriers “new obstacles in daily business life” are not benefitting German business or the UK

Lindner: “in daily life of German corporates, there are new obstacles since Brexit, I don't think UK is benefiting from Brexit. And so I, I believe i’m convinced we need new steps to reduce the obstacles in the daily business life for people and corporates to have trade”

FULL STORY …
Exclusive interview with German finance minister @c_lindner including natural follow up on why not help avoid tariffs on electric cars this Jan, then, and re German economy, & whether gas supplies/ storage good for this winter here: bbc.co.uk/news/business-…

@c_lindner why not help out avoid tariffs on electric cars this Jan…?

“UK now a 3rd party country. so if it decides for special relationship with EU &our single market, you’re invited, but at the moment, UK decided for its own way & so these are these obstacles in daily life. I regret it”

@c_lindner Asked about recession, German finance minister says its economy has shown its resilience given gas price shock and has turnaround potential, and it has “solved the problem” of Russian gas reliance…

… so what’s going on here?

These were very strong calls from the minister, leader of the junior partner in the German ruling coalition, who had just met the Chancellor. Scholz is also know to have a good relationship with Starmer… he seems a keen watcher of UK politics…

German trade with UK fallen… EU car exports in general to UK down pretty sharply, more than trend…

His answer on electric tariffs tougher than I expected though.

Struck me, after good vibes following NI deal, Opposition openly advocating updating Brexit, he’s testing water

I note that his offer of “call us!” was to the United Kingdom generally, ie not just this Government…

Obviously all this stuff also Brussels domain more broadly, but he is obviously expressing frustration in German business. Perhaps more momentum than realised pre 2026 review

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Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Oct 5

Japan building revolutionary 177 mile maglev from Tokyo to Nagoya for £45bn, 90% in tunnels under mountains as part of integrated Shinkansen system…

equivalent of London to Manchester (in straight line) in 40 minutes… at 310mph…

jrailpass.com/blog/maglev-bu…

Think that budget will probably go up… but gives a sense of perspective on the costs of HS2 phase 1… and it’ll probably open before hs2 even though 2027 probs won’t be met.

But also how was it funded?

30 year “FILP” state loans with 0.5%- 1% interest rates taken out in 2017

“Securing long-term, fixed- & low- rate financing using FILP, by taking advantage of low-interest rate environment at time of draw- down, enable us to mitigate management risk start construction work for section between Nagoya and Osaka”
(NB that’s nearly Lon-Glasgow in 67 mins!)

Read 10 tweets

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Oct 4

…

Government is arguing that with the rise in costs, the cost benefit ratio for HS2 may have fallen below 1… some bus projects have a ratio above 4 (ie £4 for every £1 invested)…

But this would be for the whole project… now half built.

So

1. Who will take responsibility for the spiralling cost of HS2 phase
1… did it ever make sense to build a tunnel from London to Birmingham… did they spend the cash that should have extended it to the north, the whole point, on tunnels to hide it?

… and
2. Once phase 1 is complete - with more than half the costs but not the strategic benefits… (sunk costs)… the new benefit: cost ratio analysis of phase 2 alone for a future Govt could be somewhat better.

Read 19 tweets

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Sep 20

On Net Zero row back…

Will hear from more big investors & companies who have invested many billions on cast iron commitments to transition timetable

Eg elec cars - significant concern having invested on assumption of transition, now undermined, at time of qs re consumer demand

As I reported last week re Chinese imports, many carmakers were concerned about detail of Zero Electric Vehicle mandate which is due to come in, in January, but they weren’t calling for a delay, more flexibility to effectively prevent them from having to subsidise Chinese imports

…mandate model & subsidies, (see also heat pumps/ wind farms etc) designed to create certainty for net zero investment tsunami into UK… investors (who already had eyebrows raised after mini budget/ £ volatility/ 4 Chancellors/ 3 PMs) will be watching degree of rowback carefully

Read 4 tweets

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Sep 18

Should be interesting….

#minibudget

Here we go….

“ I don't regret that choice I made” Liz Truss says re mini budget

“The mini budget was attacked by IMF... It was attacked by President Biden. And it was also not wholly supported…by various UK institutions so that is difficult, of course, for international credibility”.

Read 11 tweets

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Sep 3

NEW

Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt tells #bbclaurak that the school shutdowns due to crumbly concrete “won’t” be like lockdown, and he’ll “spend what it takes” to “make sure kids are safe”…

Chancellor points out one of his first decisions was to protect in cash terms overall capital budgets… “in cash terms” is a pretty important caveat here at a time of generationally high inflation - it was not protected in real terms - as a %n of GDP heading to 2.1% from 2.9% now

Chancellor suggests there might be a “blip” in August inflation numbers out next month, other experts think it might go up again

Read 9 tweets

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Aug 29

NEW

Government acknowledges for first time that the imposition of now further delayed post Brexit checks on EU food and agriculture imports will increase inflation … though says it is “expected to be minor” at less than 0.2% across three years

In the new Border Operating model, Government says it has reduced burdens on importers by £500m a year (vs previous model, not status quo), but cost will be £330m pa… re 0.2% inflation “consequences of a major outbreak of plant/animal disease on economy could be far more severe”

Exemptions for people with sandwiches/ gifts coming back on ferries/ Eurostar … look like they are coming in October, but not entirely clear… could apply for some parcels for business to consumer purchases and personal gifts

Read 9 tweets

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