Thread by @MattooShashank

“India isn’t ready to be a superpower”

That’s a controversial argument

But is it true? 🧵

In 2015, noted analyst Bharat Karnad wrote "Why India is Not A Great Power (Yet)"

Karnad argues that despite its large population, economic heft and military strength, India has not become a major power

Karnad argues that there are a bunch of things that 🇮🇳 does wrong

He says India suffers from:

1. Lack of a concrete geopolitical vision
2. A lazy attitude
2. Weak politicians & bureaucrats
3. Major social challenges like poverty and inequality
4. An underdeveloped defence ecosystem

These factors are stopping 🇮🇳 from becoming a great power

1⃣. No vision

Karnad argues that great powers through history have all had an outward-looking national vision that is backed by strong leaders and efficient bureaucracies

This vision and a sense of national destiny sets great powers apart from the rest

Take, for example, the United States

As America was rising in the 19th century, the concept of "Manifest Destiny" became popular

This concept held that America was destined to expand and grow its territory & power partly because the country had 'divine backing'

It became an important part of America's foreign policy in the 19th century

It drove the US to defeat older powers like Spain & take over territory

The bottom line is that America's rise was fueled by an outward-looking national vision that was broadly popular

India, by contrast, has no similar vision

It is clear that many Indians want their country to be a great power

BUT, neither politicians nor the country's diplomats have seriously attempted to construct a single national vision that unites the Indian public behind that goal

In fact, Karnad argues that many prominent thinkers in the country aren't actually convinced that India can or should be a great power

Prominent historian Ramachandra Guha, for instance, believes 🇮🇳 shouldn't even try to be a superpower

Karnad quotes former National Security MK Narayanan who argued that a becoming a great power would require "deployment of scare resources and hence is 'an unaffordable luxury' that an impoverished India cannot afford"

Without a popular national vision that looks outward to achieve great power status, India is unable to make the reforms or mobilise the resources it needs

Foreign policy and national security issues are, barring some exceptions, seen as disconnected from the average citizen

2⃣. Lazy Attitude

The absence of a national vision translates to a pretty laidback attitude to becoming a great power

Karnad argues that India's politicians and diplomats believe that the country will naturally reach this status in time

BUT, this makes them overconfident

Former DRDO Chief VK Saraswat says:

"We are not an ambitious people. Even if we want to become Number One in the world, the attitude is "Haan, ho jayenge" (Well, yes, we will become one in due time) we are not driven; that's the reason for our slow pace of progress"

Contrast this with Singapore, which is a far smaller country

One its top diplomats, Bilahari Kausikan, said:

"If you're a small country, you gotta start from the premise that you are irrelevant. So every day you wake up and you ask yourself how do I make myself relevant now?"

India has the opposite problem

It is already relevant & Karnad argues that it makes India complacent

Why strive to become a great power today if we'll eventually become one tomorrow?

The lack of a national vision also makes it easier for India's decision makers to cruise along

3⃣. Weak politicians and bureaucrats

Karnad argues that India's national security elite are not serious about making the country a great power

First, the politicians

Very few of 🇮🇳's politicians are interested in foreign policy since their focus is largely on domestic affairs

That means they often lack the will, expertise or the vision to push foreign policy in a particular direction

Second, the bureaucracy

While India's diplomats and military are competent, they've got problems

India's Foreign Ministry is underfunded and has too few diplomats

Karnad argues the Ministry of Defence is run by IAS officers who aren't defence experts

Bureaucrats are also occupied with day-to-day operations

This leaves little time for big strategic thinking

All of this means 🇮🇳 hasn't developed the attitude it needs to be a great power

4⃣. Military and Hard Power problems

Karnad argues that the effective use of hard power and military diplomacy is an essential skill for great powers

Unfortunately, India hasn't picked this up yet

India's military is still fairly cut off from foreign policy decision making

That is because of infighting between the foreign ministry and the military

As former Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh said, there is a "lack of planning (which has) rendered our foreign and defence policy functions as two separate...activities rather than as a functional whole"

There is also no single National Security Strategy that can integrate defence & diplomatic efforts

"The lack of vision or strategy document (to get everybody on the same page) means that we don't know what we want and no one knows what's right," says a former Air Force chief

Besides this, Karnad has the usual complaints about the Indian military

- Too many inter-service rivalries & little co-ordination
- An weak domestic defence manufacturing system
- Dependency on foreign defence imports
- Inability to adopt new technologies

5⃣. Economic and social problems

Great powers also have strong economies & social mobility

Karnad argues that while India's economy is set to see strong economic growth, social inequality & poverty remain high & mobility is low (comparable to Latin American countries)

Great powers have also historically been great at manufacturing goods

These industries build industrial capacity & provide millions of well-paid jobs

BUT, India's manufacturing sector contributes just 15-17% of GDP

This also feeds into unemployment

In 2022, ~ 25% of Indian youths were unemployed (World Bank)

That is not great news since 🇮🇳's workforce will expand by 8 million every year till 2030

This may mean social instability and division, which could threaten 🇮🇳's external ambitions

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