Thread by @TomWlost

I see a lot of bad Brussels takes on the likely outcome of Polish parliamentary elections , so let me share a few points.

1/ We are unlikely to have a sworn in government until late November or more likely, December. So the new government starts really governing in the begining of the next year.

2/ The primary focus of the new government is likely to be internal Polish affairs. The only major exception is releasing EU funds. But those, to be released, will probably require domestic law changes (though Tusk claims he can release them "within a day"). We'll see.

3/ The ruling coalition, if manages to install a government, consists of many political parties, which come from different EU political groups: EPP, S&D, Greens, Renew. So not clear to what extent they will be united on numerous issues on EU agenda.

4/ There will be very strong opposition: if the leading exit poll is confirmed, PiS and Confederation (both eurosceptic) will lack only abt 15-20 votes to overthrow the govt, so the ruling coalition unlikely to go bold on EU issues.

5/ The main component of the ruling coalition is going to be the EPP, which - whether they admit or not - are not very far away from ECR on substance on some key EU issues (climate, migration, agri). There should not be any expectation of any major change on substance.

6/ The main difference and change is going to be the optics and esthetics. With Tusk the former Council President, he will reassure EU partners that Poland "is back". PL govt will put on a new smiley face. However, on substance, not much room for maneuver on some key files.

7/ There are local elections in Poland in spring 2024, followed by EU elections in June 2024, and Presidential elections 2025. The new govt will need to watch its back all along, so on many key EU topics (climate, migration, EU reform), its space for concessions limited.

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