EU & US trade & regulatory affairs lawyer. Currently in Brussels. Trade, climate, geopolitics, sanctions, foreign affairs, US & EU politics, Russia, Ukraine
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Oct 15, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
I see a lot of bad Brussels takes on the likely outcome of Polish parliamentary elections , so let me share a few points.
1/ We are unlikely to have a sworn in government until late November or more likely, December. So the new government starts really governing in the begining of the next year.
May 9, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
Jednomyślność - mimo niewątpliwej zalety gwarantowania każdemu Państwu możliwość zablokowania inicjatyw dla niego złe - ma też dwie duże wady, z których o jednej mało (lub w ogóle) się u nas mówi.
Mianowicie w związku z tym, że wiele kompetencji jest już obecnie w rękach UE, wiele państw po prostu nie może sobie regulować na własnym podwórku, bo kompetencje te są w ręku UE.
May 9, 2023 • 23 tweets • 4 min read
So.... EU discussions on 11th EU sanctions package on Russia are seriously starting. ⚡
What's on the table?
It's all confidential and hush-hush 😶, so just a few teasers. (thread)
1/23
First, proposed listings of 72 new individuals (military, deportation of children, propagandists, others) and 29 entities (mainly defense 🚀, encryption 💻, propaganda 📺, banks 🏦).
If adopted, the totals are up to 1571 persons & 241 entities.
2/23
Feb 5, 2023 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
A short thread on the occasion of the review of the crude oil price cap in the EU Russia sanctions.
As most of you know, on Dec. 5, 2022, crude oil price cap went into effect at 60 USD per barrel. The cap had first been discussed & somewhat agreed within G7 (aka "Price Cap Coalition"), then unexpectedly had to be renegotiated after some EU states forced it down to 60 USD.
Feb 5, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Ha ha ha!
The EU could have protected its domestic solar panel industry in the 2010s, but instead gave in to the free traders and green import lobby. In effect, Chinese imports destroyed EU PV industry completely.
For those that have short memory: late in 2012, the EU initiated an antidumping and antisubsidy action against Chinese PV panel, solar cell and wafer imports, to protect the EU industry from getting wiped out by Chinese imports.
Dec 14, 2022 • 72 tweets • 16 min read
The (lack of realistic) debate about excluding Russian #fertilizers from sanctions shows how the West is still susceptible to Russian propaganda. As the 9th #sanctions package is getting bogged down in a stalemate, it's worth to unpack is to realize what is actually going on. 🧵
As news outlets report, a number of major Western EU countries, including Germany, France and Belgium (and some others) are blocking the adoption of the 9th sanctions package with their request to create an exemption for transactions involving agriculture and fertilizers.
Dec 4, 2022 • 64 tweets • 11 min read
Sorry to be a bore, but the Eagle has landed! Last night, EU finally published the long-awaited price cap on Russian oil at 6⃣0⃣ USD per barrel🛢️+ some tweaks to EU oil sanctions scheme
I realize everyone's minds are in the World Cup. But lets muster some discipline & dive in!🧵
Before we get into it, two points.
1st: this batch of EU sanctions regs doesnt have an unofficial number. We are currently between 8th sanctions package (October) & the incoming 9th package (mid December). Yesterday's regs don't bring any new restrictions, so arent "numbered".
Dec 3, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
I want to share a thought about Elon Musk and the art of keeping silent. I'd invite you to opine, though I am afraid not many will share their thoughts. But I sincerely do wonder how you feel. Here it is.
There is this saying that quite often you have the following choice: you can leave people wondering whether you're an idiot or open your mouth and relieve them of this lingering doubt.
Nov 25, 2022 • 31 tweets • 6 min read
Chciałbym zwrócić Państwa uwagę, że Polska rozgrywa właśnie w Brukseli bardzo ostrą partię o sankcje i "price cap" na ropę na rynku globalnym.
Ponieważ być może dzisiaj sprawa się będzie rozstrzygać na posiedzeniu Ambasadorów UE, kilka uwag na ten temat. 🧵
Ale zacznijmy od wprowadzenia, bo bez tego nie sposób zrozumieć co się dzieje.
Za siedmioma górami ⛰️🏔️🗻, za siedmioma lasami 🌲🌳🌴....
In the 6th sanctions package (July 2022), EU banned not only imports of crude and petroleum products into the EU (with delayed implementation), but also provision of assistance by EU companies to exports of Russian crude and petroleum products to third countries.
Nov 22, 2022 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
Zgadzam się z tą analizą, z jedną zasadniczą różnicą. Mianowicie nie wiem jak wyglądają kontrakty PKNu z Rosjanami, ale raczej na pewno jest w nich klauzula force majeure, która umożliwia PKN-owi odstąpienie od umowy w razie zaistnienia siły wyższej.
Tą siłą wyższą są sankcje UE. Racją jest, że sankcje nie zakazują Orlenowi imporu ropy rurociągiem, ale zakazują czego innego: odsprzedaży tej ropy, a także odsprzedaży produktów wyprodukowanych z tej ropy. Czyli zasadniczo zmieniają warunki konkurencji na rynku UE.
Oct 7, 2022 • 89 tweets • 16 min read
So new EU #Russia#sanctions package just dropped yesterday. You're curious what's in it, but don't have the time go through it!
Lucky for you: I've got you covered. I just spend the entire night dissecting every line. Here is what's in it.
EU changed 3 areas of law: 1/ Asset freezes/visa bans, adding new 30 individuals and 7 entities (incl. Alexander Dugin); 2/ Major Russia sanctions law, by adding new restrictions, incl. oil price cap; and 3/ Embargo on Donetsk/Luhansk.
I will analyze these in turn.
Mar 9, 2022 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
BOOOOM. 🤯🤯🤯
EU drops a bombshell and imposes sanctions on 14 top Russian oligarchs.
1-3/ D. & A. Pumyansky (father & son) & G. Pumpyanskaya (wife of D) - PJSC Pipe Metallurgical Comp 4/ A. Vinokurov - retail, food, pharma, agri, Maraton Group, Magnit, son-in-law of S. Lavrov. 2/n
Mar 8, 2022 • 10 tweets • 1 min read
Kilka słów o wprowadzonych dzisiaj przez USA dalszych sankcjach na Rosję. 1/n
Prezydent Biden wydał Zarządzenie Wykonawcze (Executive Order) nakładając sankcje na rosyjskich sektor energetyczny. 2/n
Oct 10, 2021 • 83 tweets • 19 min read
The #CBAM proposal was released almost 3 months ago. Various aspects of the proposal have been already discussed: impact on economy, int'l trade patterns, compatibility w/ WTO & Paris Agreement.
I’d like to highlight here a number of less discussed issues. (thread)
At the outset, let me point out that two main issues that in my view will determine the future of #CBAM in the Council and the Parliament have been somewhat discussed in the media, but in an insufficient and highly distorted way: free ETS allowances and export competitiveness. /1
Oct 9, 2021 • 37 tweets • 7 min read
An important voice in the debate about #CBAM and its compliance with WTO rules. Here, major critique from a leading expert on WTO law, James Bacchus. /Thread
First, let me just note that nothing I write below should be taken as my attempt to question Mr. Bacchus' interpretation of WTO law. He is a legend of WTO. Twice the chairman of WTO Appellate Body. An expert and authority like no other. Hats off. /1
Jul 23, 2021 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
The main damage from this is deal lies somewhere else & I'm not sure Americans realize it.
In having to make tough choices, US ultimately decided to side w/ Germany, throwing CEE under the bus. From US short-term perspective that choice may have been obvious. 1/n
But it will have DESTRUCTIVE implications in CEE foreign policy. These countries always looked to America as a beacon of hope. A trustworthy ally. Guarantor of security. All these countries have been betrayed in the past. But not by America. America was reliable. 2/n
Jun 24, 2021 • 50 tweets • 14 min read
Today, EU finally imposed further economic #sanctions on #Belarus, perhaps finalizing EU's multi-prong reaction to the hijacking of RyanAir flight on May 23rd.
This (long) thread will analyze where we are today and what actually has been achieved. (thread)
The previous situation is described here. 👇
Prior to RyanAir incident, EU had (1) asset freezes, (2) visa/entry bans; (3) arms embargo, (4) ban on exports of equipment used for internal repression. /1
As the cat seems to be out of the bag, and most people following EU #CBAM discussions have seen some draft of the proposal, let me share with those out of the loop some info on the structure of the proposal. /Thread
First, CBAM will first apply to 4 pre-selected sectors., listed in Annex I These are - for the time being - electricity, fertilizer inputs plus some selected fertilizers, cement, many iron & steel products, plus aluminum 1/n
Jun 2, 2021 • 29 tweets • 5 min read
Od dłuższego czasu postuluję, abyśmy - zamiast biadolić, jak to Niemcy z Rosjanami budują projekty uderzające w bezpieczeństwo naszego państwa, lub jak to niemieccy urzędnicy zajmują miejsca w organach państwowych firm rosyjskich - zaczęli to jawnie zwalczać za pomocą sankcji. /1
Pytanie oczywiście brzmi - jakich konkretnie sankcji? Sankcje to luźne hasło, pod którym kryć się mogą różne środki, od zakazu wjazdu, przez zamrożenie aktywów, zakaz transakcji, wykluczenie z przetargów, zakaz finansowania, zakaz inwestycji, embargo handlowe i inne. /2
May 25, 2021 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
I am hearing a lot of doubts whether EU and the West have any economic pressure over Belarus.
Here are some quick & obvious targets for trade sanctions. (thread)
By hitting: (1) oil & fuels (2) iron, steel, metallurgy (3) chemicals & fertilizers
the West would be hitting about a third of BLR trade. /2
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