But hydro is also useful for balancing renewables on a seasonal & yearly basis.
Our dams store ~2 TWh of excess inflows from May-Oct & release them in Nov-Apr.
In FY2013 & 14, hydro generated 6.5 TWh more than inflows to take advantage of high prices during the carbon tax (2/n)
So it is clear that our hydro assets are able to store multiple TWh of potential generation in dams, and release them in different months or years depending on our needs (3/n)
But the Snowy hydro scheme is for irrigation as well as generation. Thankfully, there are 2 big dams near the bottom of this scheme, Blowering & Hume, that can store over a year of typical Snowy generation. Thus irrigation needs can be mostly decoupled from generation (4/n)
Which brings me back to a point that I often make. If you see a study claiming that Australia's NEM needs multiple TWh of storage to get near 100% renewable, always check their assumptions about hydro (5/n)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh)
Results:
last week: 99.7% RE
last 106 weeks: 98.9% RE (1/4)
Here is the simulation from weeks 103 to 106. It was 98.1% renewable.
For earlier weeks, see the following thread (2/4)
My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from @OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with ‘Other’ (3/4)
Updated thread containing more information, FAQs, price & emission information about my weekly high renewable simulations. Much of this information is also contained in this article, which I wrote when I’d reached 2 years of simulations (1/n) reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100pct-…
What is ‘Other’?
In the short-term it is likely to be existing gas/diesel peaking generators (the NEM currently has ~11 GW of these). Longer term “other” could be flexible demand, biofuel or green hydrogen powered generators, and/or long-term storage such as Snowy 2.0. (2/n)
Does the fact that my model only reaches 98-99% RE mean 1-2% of of the year contains blackouts?
No, the last 1-2% comes from “Other”, which is described in the previous tweet. ‘Other’ is not blackouts. (3/n)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh)
Results:
last week: 100% RE
last 101 weeks: 98.9% RE (1/4)
Here is the simulation from weeks 98 to 101. It was 98.8% renewable.
For earlier weeks, see the following thread (2/4)
https://t.co/tJUNvoaclF
My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from @OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with “Other” (3/4)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh)
Results:
last week: 95.3% RE
last XX weeks: 98.9% RE (1/4)
Here is the simulation from weeks 97 to 100. It was 96.1% renewable.
For earlier weeks, see the following thread (2/4)
https://t.co/vx0en7Ggij
My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from @OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with “Other” (3/4)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh)
Results:
last week: 100% RE
last 99 weeks: 98.9% RE (1/4)
Here is the simulation from weeks 96 to 99. It was 96.8% renewable.
For earlier weeks, see the following thread (2/4)
https://t.co/iEDKgc3WpJ
My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from @OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with “Other” (3/4)
Thread: Each week I run a simulation of Australia’s main electricity grid using rescaled generation data to show that it can get very close to 100% renewable electricity with just 5 hrs of storage (24 GW / 120 GWh)
Results:
last week: 89.2% RE
last 97 weeks: 98.9% RE (1/5)
Here is the simulation from weeks 94 to 97. It was 96% renewable.
For earlier weeks, see the following thread (2/5)
https://t.co/BK20sPu4uZ
My simulation has used wind, rooftop & utility solar data from @OpenNEM, rescaled to supply ~60%, 25% & 20% respectively over the year. It uses the storage & existing hydro to match demand. If there remains a shortfall then the model supplements generation with “Other” (3/5)