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The theory for placing 2 carrier strike groups & an amphibious ready group with a marine expeditionary unit in the Middle East is it will deter Iran, Hezbollah, & Syria. @POTUS is visiting to support & reassure Israel, influence its’s ground operations, & deter enemies. But… 1/6
The show of strength & POTUS visit may not be enough of to deter. There’s been an erosion of deterrence. Internal chaos driven but Trumpism, a soft national security policy towards Russia/ insufficient support for Ukraine give our enemies the perception the US won’t act. 2/6
Our enemies have baked in demonstrations as the limits of our actions. The Biden Admin will need to act to make the threat of military force real. There is plenty of Iranian terror infrastructure the U.S. and Israeli can obliterate in a combined operation. 3/6
But it’s unlikely the U.S. will act or will act too late. The pattern from the National Security establishment is pretty clear. They are deterred by fears of escalation and the belief that their actions will be the driver of crisis and further violence. Same as with Ukraine. 4/6
The reality is our enemies see opportunities in our domestic chaos & the slow action of the Admin. For the 20 months of the Ukraine war, they have been calibrated to believe that the US will self-deter. This one consequence of the Afghanistan withdrawal. A fear of action. 5/6
The U.S. will likely need to instantiate its support of Israel. By punishing terror infrastructure, resulting the loss of dozens of U.S. lives, Iran and its Hezbollah proxy would be deterred from sparking a broader regional war. 6/6
BTW. Why isn’t the U.S. taking action to punish the terror networks responsible for killing dozens of Americans?
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