Thread by @tomaspueyo

Why does Egypt keep the border with Gaza closed?
Why are there more Palestinian refugees in Jordan than in Palestine?
Why doesn't Lebanon grant citizenship to Palestinian refugees?

Do Arab countries really support Palestine?
It's not as it seems:

The official Arab support for Palestine is strong.
Up till very recently, most Arab countries only recognized Palestine (yellow on the map). This is from 2019:

It reflects a popular opinion: Most Arabs think the plight of Palestinians is theirs too

We see it in Arab streets, in the frequent outpours of support for Palestinians, like this one in support of Hamas after their attack to Israel

Once again, the popular opinion is reflected in official words by Arab states, most of which either only supported Hamas's actions, or called for de-escalation, and none condemned Hamas

But pay attention to what they say, not what they do, and you'll see something completely different

In the 1947 war with Israel, Egypt & Jordan could have created a Palestinian state with Gaza & the West Bank, which they held for 20 years

They kept them for themselves

It would have seemed reasonable: They were claiming for a Palestinian state, and Palestine had been managed separately under British rule

But this misses the thinking at the time
Nationalism is a very recent innovation
AFAIK there were no Arab nation-states before the 20th C

What's an independent Egypt? Jordan? Syria?
These ?s had no answer then

During WWI, King Hussein had a vision of an Arab state across the entire Arabian peninsula
This was reasonable: There were no precedents!
There was no Egyptian nationalism, or Jordanian... or Palestinian

Arab divisions had been more bureaucratic than ethnic
Earlier, there was Greater Syria
Then Lebanon & Israel were split
Syria & Jordan were split
by a French-British agreement in WWI
The resulting Sykes-Picot line can be seen in current borders

Another example of bureaucratic splits: The name "Jordan" comes from "Trans-Jordan", as in "The region beyond the Jordan River"

Who defines a country by one of its borders?
Ppl splitting regions on a map in their faraway office

These countries did not reflect local sentiment

At the time, the region was figuring out what land should go where. They weren't sure. They were sure of one thing though: In the middle of an Arab Muslim world, they did not want a Jewish state

It made sense for Egypt to keep Gaza & Jordan to keep the West Bank

When they lose these regions in the 6-day war in 1967, 20 years have passed. National identity has been forming. It's not clear that Gaza belongs to Egypt or the West Bank to Jordan

So Egypt signs peace w/ Israel to get the Sinai back
Jordan relinquishes the West Bank, too hard to control from across the Jordan

Jordan has other thoughts in mind: Even without the West Bank, it has more Palestinian refugees than the West Bank & Gaza!

Here's the 2nd pbm Arab countries have w/ Palestine: political beliefs

Jordan is a monarchy from the Hashemite family, which doesn't come from Jordan

60% of Jordan's population is Palestinian

The Palestinian leadership is socialist

They tried to topple the monarchy

Palestinians killed a Jordanian king
They blew up civilian planes in Jordan
They had an army operating inside Jordan
They had manifested the desire to topple the monarchy
So Jordan kicked the fighters out

Jordanians don't want to regularize Palestinian ppl for 3 reasons:
• They would be a majority
• Keeping them as refugees puts pressure on a Palestinian state
• They are a bargaining chip
So Palestinians are stateless in Jordan
Jordanians even take away their citizenship

Something similar happens in Lebanon:
• Palestinians are Sunni. Lebanon is majority Shiah. Palestinians would tilt the balance
• Granting citizenship to Palestinians would also release pressure on a Palestinian state & lose a bargainin chip

So Palestinians live as non-citizens in Lebanon, many in refugee camps. They are deprived of access to social services, prohibited from working in dozens of professions, and they can’t buy or bequeath property.

Their plight is the same in Syria, for similar reasons (pressure against Israel, bargaining chips)
With one big difference: Syria thinks Israel & Palestine belongs to them

Remember Sykes-Picot split Greater Syria in 2 pieces?
Syria thinks they should be reunited

So Syria keeps Palestinians stateless & undermines Israel, but it's not forthcoming about a Palestinian state

What about Egypt? Why does it keep the Rafah border closed with Gaza? Why sign peace with Israel?

For the same reasons, and then more: religion

Egypt was pan-Arabist. It wanted a huge Arab country. In fact, the United Arab Republic united Egypt, Syria, and Yemen for years! There were many more attempts.

Here's what Egypt was *not*: pan-Islamist

The Muslim Brotherhood is pan-Islamist though. It has been banned in Egypt since the 1950s. When it was legalized in 2011, it won elections... Before the military threw them out and banned them again

You know who is pan-Islamist? Hamas in Gaza
Hamas is Egypt's enemy

➡️Arab countries used to support the Palestinian struggle, but not Palestinians or their state for many reasons:
• Keep them as refugees to pressure Israel
• And bargaining chips
• Preserve monarchy
• Support pan-Arabism vs pan-Islamism
• Take over for themselves

Over time, things have changed for Arab neighbors:
• Nationalism has grown. Absorbing Palestinian lands is impossible
• Alliance with Israel = alliance with the US = money & weapons
• Economic benefits from Israeli friendship higher than w/ Palestine

➡️Arab countries are normalizing their relationships with Israel, and support Palestinians more with words than actions:
• Economics > idealism
• Peace > Palestinian state
• Suffering Palestinians are more useful
• Neighbors don't believe they can win a war

I hope this was useful! If you did, follow me for more. I’ll be writing about different aspects of the conflict in the coming days

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If you want more details on this, here’s an in depth article, including all sources


What did I miss? What else should I say on the topic? LMK!unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/do-arab-stat…

Many people are reading this thread but miss the historic context of Israel & Palestine. Please go read this thread if you haven't yet:

https://x.com/tomaspueyo/status/1712518904616989121?s=20