Tomas Pueyo Profile picture
Oct 17, 2023 28 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Why does Egypt keep the border with Gaza closed?
Why are there more Palestinian refugees in Jordan than in Palestine?
Why doesn't Lebanon grant citizenship to Palestinian refugees?

Do Arab countries really support Palestine?
It's not as it seems: Image
The official Arab support for Palestine is strong.
Up till very recently, most Arab countries only recognized Palestine (yellow on the map). This is from 2019: Image
It reflects a popular opinion: Most Arabs think the plight of Palestinians is theirs too Image
We see it in Arab streets, in the frequent outpours of support for Palestinians, like this one in support of Hamas after their attack to Israel Image
Once again, the popular opinion is reflected in official words by Arab states, most of which either only supported Hamas's actions, or called for de-escalation, and none condemned Hamas Image
But pay attention to what they say, not what they do, and you'll see something completely different

In the 1947 war with Israel, Egypt & Jordan could have created a Palestinian state with Gaza & the West Bank, which they held for 20 years

They kept them for themselves Image
It would have seemed reasonable: They were claiming for a Palestinian state, and Palestine had been managed separately under British rule

But this misses the thinking at the time
Nationalism is a very recent innovation
AFAIK there were no Arab nation-states before the 20th C
What's an independent Egypt? Jordan? Syria?
These ?s had no answer then

During WWI, King Hussein had a vision of an Arab state across the entire Arabian peninsula
This was reasonable: There were no precedents!
There was no Egyptian nationalism, or Jordanian... or Palestinian Image
Arab divisions had been more bureaucratic than ethnic
Earlier, there was Greater Syria
Then Lebanon & Israel were split
Syria & Jordan were split
by a French-British agreement in WWI
The resulting Sykes-Picot line can be seen in current borders Image
Another example of bureaucratic splits: The name "Jordan" comes from "Trans-Jordan", as in "The region beyond the Jordan River"

Who defines a country by one of its borders?
Ppl splitting regions on a map in their faraway office

These countries did not reflect local sentiment
At the time, the region was figuring out what land should go where. They weren't sure. They were sure of one thing though: In the middle of an Arab Muslim world, they did not want a Jewish state

It made sense for Egypt to keep Gaza & Jordan to keep the West Bank
When they lose these regions in the 6-day war in 1967, 20 years have passed. National identity has been forming. It's not clear that Gaza belongs to Egypt or the West Bank to Jordan
So Egypt signs peace w/ Israel to get the Sinai back
Jordan relinquishes the West Bank, too hard to control from across the Jordan

Jordan has other thoughts in mind: Even without the West Bank, it has more Palestinian refugees than the West Bank & Gaza! Image
Here's the 2nd pbm Arab countries have w/ Palestine: political beliefs

Jordan is a monarchy from the Hashemite family, which doesn't come from Jordan

60% of Jordan's population is Palestinian

The Palestinian leadership is socialist

They tried to topple the monarchy
Image
Image
Palestinians killed a Jordanian king
They blew up civilian planes in Jordan
They had an army operating inside Jordan
They had manifested the desire to topple the monarchy
So Jordan kicked the fighters out Image
Jordanians don't want to regularize Palestinian ppl for 3 reasons:
• They would be a majority
• Keeping them as refugees puts pressure on a Palestinian state
• They are a bargaining chip
So Palestinians are stateless in Jordan
Jordanians even take away their citizenship Image
Something similar happens in Lebanon:
• Palestinians are Sunni. Lebanon is majority Shiah. Palestinians would tilt the balance
• Granting citizenship to Palestinians would also release pressure on a Palestinian state & lose a bargainin chip Image
So Palestinians live as non-citizens in Lebanon, many in refugee camps. They are deprived of access to social services, prohibited from working in dozens of professions, and they can’t buy or bequeath property. Image
Their plight is the same in Syria, for similar reasons (pressure against Israel, bargaining chips)
With one big difference: Syria thinks Israel & Palestine belongs to them

Remember Sykes-Picot split Greater Syria in 2 pieces?
Syria thinks they should be reunited
So Syria keeps Palestinians stateless & undermines Israel, but it's not forthcoming about a Palestinian state

What about Egypt? Why does it keep the Rafah border closed with Gaza? Why sign peace with Israel?

For the same reasons, and then more: religion Image
Egypt was pan-Arabist. It wanted a huge Arab country. In fact, the United Arab Republic united Egypt, Syria, and Yemen for years! There were many more attempts.

Here's what Egypt was *not*: pan-Islamist Image
The Muslim Brotherhood is pan-Islamist though. It has been banned in Egypt since the 1950s. When it was legalized in 2011, it won elections... Before the military threw them out and banned them again

You know who is pan-Islamist? Hamas in Gaza
Hamas is Egypt's enemy
➡️Arab countries used to support the Palestinian struggle, but not Palestinians or their state for many reasons:
• Keep them as refugees to pressure Israel
• And bargaining chips
• Preserve monarchy
• Support pan-Arabism vs pan-Islamism
• Take over for themselves
Over time, things have changed for Arab neighbors:
• Nationalism has grown. Absorbing Palestinian lands is impossible
• Alliance with Israel = alliance with the US = money & weapons
• Economic benefits from Israeli friendship higher than w/ Palestine Image
➡️Arab countries are normalizing their relationships with Israel, and support Palestinians more with words than actions:
• Economics > idealism
• Peace > Palestinian state
• Suffering Palestinians are more useful
• Neighbors don't believe they can win a war Image
I hope this was useful! If you did, follow me for more. I’ll be writing about different aspects of the conflict in the coming days

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If you want more details on this, here’s an in depth article, including all sources


What did I miss? What else should I say on the topic? LMK!unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/do-arab-stat…
Many people are reading this thread but miss the historic context of Israel & Palestine. Please go read this thread if you haven't yet:

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More from @tomaspueyo

Jul 7
Did you know the West's trade deficits to China are not recent, but started 2000 years ago? This is the story of how silk, porcelain, tea, opium, and silver have determined the history of the world 🧵
The Romans already complained about deficits to China! Mainly because of silk Image
Back then the Chinese already preferred manufacturing and selling products than consuming foreign products. Chronicler Solinus ~200 AD: The Chinese "prefer only to sell their products, but do not like to buy our goods."Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 25
Why did 🇮🇱Israel strike 🇮🇷Iran now, and not months or years ago or in the future?

A unique combination of a dozen factors converged to make the moment unique for 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
1. No Hamas to its southwest
2. No Hezbollah to its north
3. No Assad threat to the northeast
4... Image
4. No more Syrian army to attack 🇮🇱Israel's planes: As the new forces of HTS took over Syria, Israel bombed all the existing Syrian military. No more fighter jets or surface-to-air missiles to threaten 🇮🇱Israel Image
5. Ability to fly over Syria to refuel
This is critical, because 🇮🇷Iran is ~600-1000 miles away from 🇮🇱Israel, so 1200-2000 miles round trip

The range of Israel’s stealth F35 is only about 1,350 mi
To operate inside 🇮🇷Iran, 🇮🇱Israel needed refueling over Syria Image
Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 23
Was 🇮🇷trying to get a nuclear bomb?

1. From Feb 2025 to Jun 2025, it increased its amount of enriched uranium by 50%
2. It now had 400kg of highly enriched uranium, enough for 9-10 bombs
3. This is 60% enriched uranium. Fuel only requires 5% enrichment.
4... 🧵
4. It's easy to go from 60% to 90% (weapons grade), it only takes weeks
5. The only country on Earth with such enriched uranium and without a bomb is 🇮🇷Iran
6. The IAEA (nuclear watchdog) found 3 secret nuclear sites
7. When 🇮🇷Iran didn't respond to this accusation, the IAEA censured it
8. 🇮🇷Iran responded to the censoring by saying it would open a 3rd enrichment site in a secret spot
Read 9 tweets
Jun 22
Now that the 🇺🇸US has bombed 3 of 🇮🇷Iran's nuclear sites, where will the war go from here?
It depends on 🇮🇱Israel: 🧵
🇮🇷Iran never wanted the war, and its forces are being decimated. Its ability to send missiles to 🇮🇱Israel is being degraded every day. If it could sign a ceasefire while saving face, it would Image
Meanwhile, 🇮🇱Israel has kept striking Iran non stop. Its daily airstrikes didn't go down substantially in the first few days. Its ability to keep striking 🇮🇷Iran remains unabated

So when will it stop? Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 19
Can there be an invasion of Iran? Hardly. Two maps explain why, and also why Iran is the way it is today, whether its regime will fall, what other superpowers will do, and in general why Iran is the way it is today

1. Iran is a mountain & desert fortress Image
Here's a topograhic map
West: Zagros
North: Caspian Sea + Caucasus, Albroz, & Kopet-Dag mountains + Karakum Desert
East: Mountains + Dasht-e Kavir / Lut Deserts
South: Sea

The only truly exposed area is the southwestern corner of Khuzestan, which is a swamp Image
The biggest superpowers lie to the west, and there the very broad Zagros make it really hard to conquer Iran. The mountain range is tall and wide, making logistics similar to Afghanistan. Very hard.

Iraq learned it the hard way when it tried to attack there in 1980 Image
Read 20 tweets
Jun 19
Was 🇮🇷Iran trying to develop nuclear weapons?

Listening to the debate, it looks like 🇮🇱Israel & the 🇺🇸US intelligence community disagreed, but that's not really the case!

Both thought Iran was weeks to months away from being able to develop the bomb

So what's the disagreement?
Here are more facts:
• Tehran had just announced a 3rd enrichment site in an undisclosed place
• The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had recently produced a report censoring Iran for the 1st time in 20y
• It accused Iran of 3 undisclosed nuclear sites
• It claimed Iran had enough enriched uranium for 9-10 nuclear bombs
• All the other countries in the world who have enriched uranium at the same level also have nuclear weapons. Iran is the only country that doesn't have these weapons yet enriches uranium as much
Read 7 tweets

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