I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.
I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.
Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.
11/
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Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.
Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.
PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17
🧵1/
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.
This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.
We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/
Based on today's CDC & Biobot data, we estimate the following for the week of Jan 19:
🔸1 in 52 people in the U.S. actively infectious
🔸25% chance of exposure in a room of 15 ppl
🔸Nearly 1 million new daily infections
🔸5 cumulative infections per person all-time (avg)
🧵1/5
Transmission estimates have been marginally corrected upward.
11 states have Very High COVlD levels:
🔸PA: 1 in 25 estimated actively infectious
🔸MI: 1 in 23
🔸OH & KY: 1 in 22
🔸SD: 1 in 20
🔸NE & IA: 1 in 18
🔸IL & ME: 1 in 17
🔸IN: 1 in 16
🔸WV: 1 in 11
🧵2/5
We're in the middle of a 12th COVlD wave.
The peak has likely passed, but with students headed back to school, transmission is expected to remain high for at least the next several weeks.
The size of the winter COVlD wave has been revised upward as post-holiday data come in.
We estimated 1 in 55 people in the U.S. are actively infectious.
🔥WV: 1 in 14
🔥IN: 1 in 15
🔥MI & OH: 1 in 21
🔥MO: 1 in 22
🔥CT: 1 in 24
🔥KS: 1 in 25
🔥MA & IL: 1 in 27
Quick 🧵 1/4
Nationally, we are seeing an estimated 892,000 new daily SARS-CoV-2 infections, meaning a 1 in 4 chance of exposure in a room of 15 people. Risk varies considerably by state.
We are approaching an average of 5 infections per person since pandemic onset.
🧵 2/4
We are in the 12th COVlD wave of the U.S.
Current transmission is higher than 68% of all days since the pandemic onset in 2020.
🧵 3/4
You might not have heard, but the northeastern U.S. is in a COVlD surge.
We use wastewater levels to derive estimates of the proportion of people actively infectious in each state (prevalence), e.g., 1 in 24 people in Connecticut.