I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.
I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.
Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.
11/
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Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission
🧵THREAD 1/6
COVID-19 persists in 2026.
We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.
Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.
🧵THREAD 2/6
Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.
Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.
Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.
We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.
🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)!
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.
In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.
🧵2 of 10
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.
Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.
PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17
🧵1/
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.
This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.
We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/