Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 17, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Did you know, you can still access recent national C0VID #wastewater data in the U.S.?

I'll walk you though it.

🧵
1/ Verily national wastewater graph
First, go to Verily's #wastewater website.


Click on the little Line Graph icon on the left side.

2/ data.wastewaterscan.org
Click the line graph icon
When you click on the Line Graph icon, it makes an annoying pop-up.

In the 1st menu, choose SARS-CoV-2.

In the 2nd menu, click *ANY* location. We want national, but they don't include it there. So pick anywhere, and we'll fix it later.

3/ Useless pop-up window
Click the "Get Started" button. Then you'll see something like this. It's the recent wastewater data at whatever rando site you selected.

Again, this is not what we want yet.

4/ Recent wastewater data at one rando site
Now, click to the right of the magnifying glass by "Location(s)" --> then "National" --> then "All Wastewater Sites"

5/ Location pop-up menu
The graph that will come up is overwhelming. No data synthesis. We're getting closer though.

Click the little crossed out eyeball I've circled in red.

6/ Graph of all wastewater data. No national average.
Woo-hoo. We finally have a national average line. I can see why the CDC prefers this over Biobot. 🤣

Click a number on the vertical access and drag up or down (it moves opposite of how I expect). Play around with the start date too. See red circles.

7/ Verily data with national average.
I like to see either the entire pandemic (big picture) or the last 6-7 months (current wave, shown).

8/ Data focused on the current wave
If you zoom out to see the entire pandemic, you'll find a similar picture relative to what you may have been tracking with Biobot, Walgreens, etc.

The waves show up. The estimates of magnitude vary by methodology.

9/

I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.

I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.

10/
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.

Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.

11/
Verily's web page begins by linking to a comprehensive dashboard that they reportedly do not own. Their own limited dashboard follows below on the page.

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More from @michael_hoerger

Apr 14
PMC COVlD Update, Apr 13, 2026

Levels are flat during a relative "lull" in transmission.
▪️1 in 187 estimated actively infectious
▪️260,000 estimated new daily infections
▪️High: OK, MS, WV
▪️Moderate: VT
▪️All other states low/very low in relative transmission

🧵THREAD 1/6 Heat map from CDC data and PMC prevalence estimates harmonizing CDC and Biobot wastewater data with IHME true case estimates to derive ongoing transmission projections
COVID-19 persists in 2026.

We are in a relative "lull" following a 12th wave, but at a baseline of 200-300K estimated new daily infections.

Transmission was lower in the era many refer to as #DuringCOVID, when multi-layered mitigation was used instead of denial.

🧵THREAD 2/6 Annotated graph of the 12 waves (U.S.)
Transmission during a "lull" is high in an absolute sense. Many people are getting infected.

Simultaneously, its low in a relative sense, or compared to so-called "typical" transmission. In most places, it's a safer time for medical/dental care.

🧵THREAD 3/6 Barometer showing lower relative transmission than usual
Read 6 tweets
Apr 6
PMC COVlD Update, April 6, 2026

Transmission is stable in a relative "lull" nationally between waves.

We estimate that approximately 313,000 people are still getting infected per day, with outbreaks radiating from TN and MS.

🧵1 of 10 (don't miss #10)! Heat map with PMC estimates
With limited data reported, Mississippi has an estimated 1 in 27 residents actively infectious.

In a room of 25 people, that's a 61% chance of exposure, if no testing/isolation protocols.

🧵2 of 10 Alabama	Low Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low* Arkansas	Low California	Very Low Colorado	Very Low Connecticut	Low Delaware	Low District of Columbia	Very Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Low Guam	Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very Low Indiana	Very Low Iowa	Very Low Kansas	Low Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Moderate Maine	Very Low Maryland	Low Massachusetts	Very Low Michigan	Low Minnesota	Very Low Mississippi	Very High*
1 in 24 people in Tennessee are estimated to be actively infectious with SARS-CoV-2. That's a 65% chance of exposure in a room of 25 people where nobody is testing/isolating.

🧵3 of 10 Missouri	Moderate* Montana	Very Low Nebraska	Very Low Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Very Low New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Very Low New York	Very Low North Carolina	Low North Dakota	Very Low* Ohio	Very Low Oklahoma	Low* Oregon	Very Low Pennsylvania	Low Rhode Island	Very Low South Carolina	Very Low South Dakota	Low Tennessee	Very High Texas	Low Utah	Very Low Vermont	Moderate Virginia	Moderate Washington	Very Low West Virginia	Low Wisconsin	Very Low Wyoming	Very Low
Read 10 tweets
Apr 3
This is an unethically misleading study with findings easily explained by residual confounding. Some health systems and patients have thorough record keeping. Others don't. All sorts of variables will correlate (infections, cancers, anything else tracked in medical records).
This is a really obvious issue for an international epi study. It should not have been published.
The above study is using the same processes the anti-vaxxers use -- junk epi that does not account for confounding -- to support whatever pre-conceived notions the authors have, with absurdly large effects.

Read 4 tweets
Mar 23
PMC #COVID Update, March 23, 2026 (U.S.)

Transmission levels have plummeted nationally as we shift from the 12th wave toward a relative "lull."

Over half the states have "Very Low" relative transmission, per the CDC.

🧵THREAD 1 of 8 Heat map using CDC levels and PMC estimate of prevalence (1 in 147 actively infectious nationwide).
Transmission varies considerably by state.

Highest
🔥Mississippi: 1 in 31 estimated actively infectious
🔥Michigan: 1 in 41
*Both states w/limited data though

Rates are quite low in relative terms in California, AZ, FL, HI, ID, MA, NV, NY, OR, RI, UT, WI

🧵THREAD 2 of 8 Alabama	Very Low Alaska	Very Low Arizona	Very Low Arkansas	Low* California	Very Low Colorado	Very Low Connecticut	Low Delaware	Moderate District of Columbia	Low Florida	Very Low Georgia	Very Low Guam	Very Low Hawaii	Very Low Idaho	Very Low Illinois	Very Low Indiana	Low Iowa	Moderate Kansas	Low Kentucky	Moderate Louisiana	Low Maine	Very Low Maryland	Moderate Massachusetts	Very Low Michigan	High* Minnesota	Moderate Mississippi	High* Missouri	Low Montana	Very Low Nebraska	Low Nevada	Very Low New Hampshire	Low* New Jersey	Low New Mexico	Very Low New York	Very Low North Carolina	Low North Dakota...
The 6th anniversary of the WHO's pandemic declaration was March 11.

Bots, minimizers, & individuals' psychological defense mechanisms will downplay that.

Yet, the U.S. just had a 12th wave. We estimate >5 cumulative infections/person & ongoing health harms.

🧵THREAD 3 of 8 Graph of the 12 waves of the pandemic (U.S.)
Read 8 tweets
Mar 14
As of today, the COVID-19 pandemic is now longer than WWII.
If you have been living in denial the past 6 years, know that the U.S. is winding down from a 12th wave of infections presently.
Denial is but one of several obvious defense mechanisms people use to try to block their awareness of the ongoing toll of COVID-19. There are many others.

Short-term capital also plays a role, but even that requires a large dose of defense mechanisms.

Read 7 tweets
Jan 25
During this 12th COVlD wave, the CDC reports 1-in-3 states have "High" or "Very High" levels.

PMC estimates the proportion of residents actively infectious (prevalence):
◾️USA: 1 in 67
◾️IA: 1 in 27
◾️MI: 1 in 25
◾️IN & CT: 1 in 23
◾️ME: 1 in 21
◾️OK & SD: 1 in 17

🧵1/ Heat map using CDC data. National PMC prevalence estimate noted; estimated incidence of 732,000 new daily infections.
On average, Americans have have 5.0 cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections.

This week's infections are expected to result in 1/4 to 1 million new #LongCOVID conditions and ≈2,000 excess deaths.
🧵2/ Column 1: Table of state-level prevalence estimates. Highest estimates noted in the thread text.  Column 2:  Proportion Actively Infectious										1 in 67 (1.5%) New Daily Infections										 732,000  Infections the Past Week										 5,220,000  Infections in 2026										 24,000,000  Cumulative Infections per Person										 5.04  										 Long COVID										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								37,000 to 146,000		   from New Daily Infections										 Long COVID Cases Resulting								261,000 to 1,040,000		   from New Weekly Infections										 										 Excess Deaths										 Ex...
The wave peak is now estimated >10% higher than last week at 1.2 million new daily infections, nearly double the Delta wave.

We expect sustained high transmission (≈600,000 to 750,000 new daily infections) the next few weeks as COVlD circulates through schools/families.
🧵3/ Fig 1: Graph of 12 waves  Fig 2: "Barometer" showing above average transmission  Fig 3: Year-over-year graph, which informs the analytic forecast  Fig 4: Forecast described in post
Read 4 tweets

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