I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.
I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.
Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.
11/
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In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut
🧵1/9
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.
MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.
States AL to MS shown.
🧵2/9
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).
Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10
With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.
We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10
State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.
Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?
Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10
State-level estimates (continued).
Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵
🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵
The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.
There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵
We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.
The relative "lull" in SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to go much lower.
✨1 in 209 people are estimated actively infectious, likely the lowest levels of 2025 nationwide.
Get boosted. Stock up on masks, tests, & filters.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
2 of 9 🧵
No data presently suggest the rise of a winter wave any earlier than "usual."
If following historical trends, transmission will pick up Nov 15-29. Last year's rise was atypically late.
PMC COVlD Update, Nov 3, 2025 (U.S.)
3 of 9 🧵
Expect rising misinformation/disinformation as transmission heats up:
🔹Abuse of community notes, particularly surrounding wastewater methodology
🔹Paid bot army attacks, especially about boosters & masks
Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.
We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.
1/9 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.
Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.
2/9 🧵
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)
We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.
Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.