Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 17, 2023 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Did you know, you can still access recent national C0VID #wastewater data in the U.S.?

I'll walk you though it.

🧵
1/ Verily national wastewater graph
First, go to Verily's #wastewater website.


Click on the little Line Graph icon on the left side.

2/ data.wastewaterscan.org
Click the line graph icon
When you click on the Line Graph icon, it makes an annoying pop-up.

In the 1st menu, choose SARS-CoV-2.

In the 2nd menu, click *ANY* location. We want national, but they don't include it there. So pick anywhere, and we'll fix it later.

3/ Useless pop-up window
Click the "Get Started" button. Then you'll see something like this. It's the recent wastewater data at whatever rando site you selected.

Again, this is not what we want yet.

4/ Recent wastewater data at one rando site
Now, click to the right of the magnifying glass by "Location(s)" --> then "National" --> then "All Wastewater Sites"

5/ Location pop-up menu
The graph that will come up is overwhelming. No data synthesis. We're getting closer though.

Click the little crossed out eyeball I've circled in red.

6/ Graph of all wastewater data. No national average.
Woo-hoo. We finally have a national average line. I can see why the CDC prefers this over Biobot. 🤣

Click a number on the vertical access and drag up or down (it moves opposite of how I expect). Play around with the start date too. See red circles.

7/ Verily data with national average.
I like to see either the entire pandemic (big picture) or the last 6-7 months (current wave, shown).

8/ Data focused on the current wave
If you zoom out to see the entire pandemic, you'll find a similar picture relative to what you may have been tracking with Biobot, Walgreens, etc.

The waves show up. The estimates of magnitude vary by methodology.

9/

I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.

I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.

10/
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.

Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.

11/
Verily's web page begins by linking to a comprehensive dashboard that they reportedly do not own. Their own limited dashboard follows below on the page.

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More from @michael_hoerger

Apr 22
🧵1 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

🌤️Only 1 in 5 days of the pandemic have seen transmission as low as today
🌤️1 in 196 actively infectious
⚡️BUT still 1.7 million weekly infections, resulting in >85,000 LC cases and up to 1,000 deaths

I'll walk you through it... Current Levels for Apr 21, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.5% (1 in 196)	 New Daily Infections	 244000	 New Weekly Infections	 1708000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 85,000 to 342,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 600 to 1,000	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 147)	 Average New Daily Infections	 324800	 New Infections During the Next Month	 9744000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 487,000 to 1,949,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 3,500 to 5,800	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 62331000	 Average Number of Infecti...
🧵2 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

We're in the 6th year. See the small red line, bottom left. Notice how closely it tracks the median (gray), year 4 (yellow), & year 5 (orange).

Acknowledging caveats, those are plausible gist-level scenarios for months ahead. year over year graph, summarized in post
🧵3 of 8 | PMC Dashboard, April 21, 2025 (U.S.)

Expect steady transmission bouncing up and down around the current national lull-level estimate the next several weeks. 200-350k daily infections nationally.

This is about as low as lulls bottom out anymore. Past 12 months and forecast, summarized in post
Read 8 tweets
Apr 14
🧵1/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹2.2 million weekly infections
🔹1 in 149 actively infectious
🔹>100,000 LC cases resulting from the week's infections
🔹>800 deaths resulting from the week's infections
🔹"Lull" transmission steady/slightly decliningCurrent Levels for Apr 14, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 149)	 New Daily Infections	 320000	 New Weekly Infections	 2240000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 112,000 to 448,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 800 to 1,300	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 138)	 Average New Daily Infections	 345366.6667	 New Infections During the Next Month	 10361000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 518,000 to 2,072,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 3,700 to 6,200	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 60891000	 Average Number of ...
🧵2/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

Year-over-year transmission (red line, lower left) is tracking the median (grey), year 4 (yellow), and year 5 (orange) closely.

If that trend continues, expect steady yet bumpy transmission the next couple months, until June/July.line graphs, described in tweet
🧵3/5 | PMC Dashboard, Apr1il 14, 2025 (U.S.)

The heat map shows only 4 states in the CDC 'high' level and none in the 'very' high level.

Check local data. Those timing activities to lulls may see a clear opportunity.heat map, described in tweet
Read 6 tweets
Apr 9
The NIH Clinical Center drops universal masking after 5 months of protecting patients, family, & staff.

Wastewater-derived estimates indicate 2.79 million Americans are getting Covid per week AND top actuaries suggest an American dies of Covid every 3 minutes.

🧵1/5 Masks are optional beginning April 11. Staff will mask on request.
These are the current wastewater-derived estimates of transmission.

2.79 million Covid infections/week in the U.S. in the current high "lull."
🧵2/5
This thread with video explains in exquisite detail how every 3 minutes in 2025 an American dies of Covid.

🧵3/5
Read 5 tweets
Apr 7
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, April 7, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹1 in 120 actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 chance of exposure in a room of 50
🔹2.8 million weekly infections
🔹>140,000 resulting LC cases from the week's infections
🔹>1,000 deaths resulting from the week's infections Current Levels for Apr 7, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.8% (1 in 120)	 New Daily Infections	 399000	 New Weekly Infections	 2793000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 140,000 to 559,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 1,000 to 1,700	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 1.0% (1 in 105)	 Average New Daily Infections	 455766.6667	 New Infections During the Next Month	 13673000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 684,000 to 2,735,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 4,900 to 8,100	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 55591000	 Average Number of...
2) Watch this video to understand how we use excess death data from one of the world's largest reinsurers to estimate how this week's infections will result in >1,000 deaths.
3) Transmission is steady or declining across much of the nation, but remains high in 11 states and DC, per the CDC.

Other sources, such as WastewaterSCAN, show a near doubling of transmission in the Northeast the past few weeks, so remain cautious.
Read 4 tweets
Mar 31
🧵1 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
🔹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
🔹1 in 142 actively infectious todayCurrent Levels for Mar 31, 2025	 % of the Population Infectious	 0.7% (1 in 142)	 New Daily Infections	 337000	 New Weekly Infections	 2359000	 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases	 118,000 to 472,000	 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths	 800 to 1,400	 	 Monthly Forecast	 Average % of the Population Infectious	 0.8% (1 in 120)	 Average New Daily Infections	 397233.3333	 New Infections During the Next Month	 11917000	 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases	 596,000 to 2,383,000	 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths	 4,300 to 7,100	 	 Running Totals	 Infections Nationwide in 2025	 52303000	 Average Number of ...
🧵2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.

🧵3 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)

The transmission forecast suggests 300-500k daily infections the next month. If the data get retroactively corrected downward, we could dip to 200k.

Check local dashboards, and time events accordingly.Forecast graph, described in post
Read 5 tweets
Mar 31
PMC Update on #ExcessDeaths

🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
🔥Death data added to the dashboard
2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.

Dashboard page (presently featured): pmc19.com/data
Downloadable file: pmc19.com/data/deaths033…
Veed platform: veed.io/view/558039f4-…
3) The new #ExcessDeath statistics build on what we described in the 5-year pandemic anniversary video.

Watch from 12:14-20:00 to see how simplistic models underestimate COVID deaths. The Swiss Re model solves that problem. PMC extends that work.
Read 6 tweets

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