I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.
I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.
Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.
11/
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🔹800-1,400 deaths expected to result from this week's infections (new stat, see video next Tweet)
🔹100,000+ Long Covid conditions to result from this week's infections
🔹1 in 142 actively infectious today
🧵2 of 5
PMC Dashboard, March 31, 2025 (U.S.)
This video explains U.S. COVID excess death statistics, which we have incorporated into the dashboard.
🔥109,000-175,000 people in the U.S. are expected to die as a result of COVID in 2025, based on estimates derived from Swiss Re
🔥COVID deaths expected to be on par with lung cancer in the U.S. in 2025
🔥Death data added to the dashboard
2) Full video links to learn more about COVID #ExcessDeaths in the U.S.
🔹3 million new weekly infections in a persistent "lull" of substantial transmission
🔹1 in 107 (0.9%) of the population actively infectious
🔹1 in 3 regions in high/very high transmission (16 states and DC)
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/5
We have had a steady state of about a half million infections the past several weeks. That's over 50 million estimated infections so far in 2025.
In a room of 40-50 people, there's a 1-in-3 chance of exposure if no testing/isolation.
PMC Dashboard, Mar 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/5
There's a good chance of steady transmission the next month. Often, we'd head into a low lull about now. BUT there are no universal precautions, immunity is waning from the fall & winter 2023-24, & viral evolution looks less 'lucky.'
It was before the pandemic declaration, before the federal government recommended masking.
COVlD spread quickly through New Orleans, leading to one of the highest mortality rates per capita in the U.S....
2) New Orleans service workers were disproportionately hit by the early pandemic. Many died. Many developed #LongCOVID at the time or have now through repeat infections. Many have switched to other sectors....
3) The sad fact is that many service workers are continuing to get #LongCOVID through repeat infections today because the pandemic is ongoing and many restaurants have high occupant density and horrendous air quality....
🔥1 in 72 actively infectious
🔥Sustained high transmission
🔥30 states in high/very high transmission (CDC)
🔥3x the transmission of Feb 2021
🔥668,000 daily infections
🔥Only 1 in 28 cases reported
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, Feb 17, 2025 (U.S.)
This is a mid-sized wave, meaning substantial transmission. Notice that transmission remains steady at high rates.
Expect steady or slightly declining transmission, unless the real-time data are retroactively corrected.
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, Feb 17, 2025 (U.S.)
Notice that 30 states remain in high/very high transmission, per CDC categories.
This is the same as last week. Transmission is 3x higher than in Feb 2021, when people were taking more precautions around masking and testing.