I hope to post an interim Biobot-to-Verily PMC forecast Monday.
I stand by prior forecasts. We'll reach the bottom of the current (very high) valley in 1-2 wks. Cases will pick up noticeably so around mid-November and get very very bad in Dec/Jan.
Point of clarification: Verily data are included in this dashboard, but others have noted Verily does not own the dashboard. The language on their website is ambiguous in this regard, IMO (pic below). It's the first link on Verily's page.
Others report that as CDC Biobot sites come on, they will be included in a Verily-specific dashboard, independent of that above. It seems that rather than harmonizing and unifying data, we are at risk of proliferating more and potentially lower quality dashboards.
11/
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The 11th wave is still rising.
🔥23 states/territories High/Very High
🔥Very High: Alabama, DC, Guam, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah
🔥1 in 56 estimated actively infectious
🔥876,000 new daily infections
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵2 of 8
Note that the CDC has modified 📉 how transmission levels correspond to the categorical bins.
Take California. We estimate 1 in 30 actively infectious statewide. This would have previously been "Very High," now just "High."
#NewNormal
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵3 of 8
Here are the prevalence estimates for the first half of states/territories.
Notice how high the levels are in some of the "Moderate" states.
Second, a lot of people can sustain a strong denial of reality about the ongoing pandemic during lulls. They suppress the existence of COVlD waves and excess deaths, disability, and retirements.
During waves, those defenses burst. Loss of control = anger...
Third, a lot of people (many reading this) understand COVlD correctly & experience righteous indignation during COVlD waves. We quite reasonably do not like all of the unjust and gratuitous suffering.
I find it helpful to channel that intensity into helping other people....
🚩🚩🚩
As a vigorous defender of #CDC data, their switch from using normalized to non-normalized COVlD wastewater surveillance data today harms data quality.
"Normalizing" means accounting for basic confounders like rain levels. It is a choice to use worse data.
1/5🧵
Historically, the CDC data have correlated near-perfectly with similar metrics, such as Biobot's wastewater estimates (still active) or the IHME true case estimates (through mid-2023).
The changes reduce those correlations. It's like going from an A+ to a B.
2/5🧵
You can readily see the loss of data quality in the PMC "whole pandemic" graph (preview shown, subject to change) with choppier waves, caused by the CDC adding extra noise to the data and applying retroactively from BA.1 Omicron to present.