Thread by @talhagin

The strike on the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza: Airstrike by the IDF or misfire by Hamas? - Analysis

First, we need to understand something crucial regarding the flow of information during war. War is fast-paced, it is brutal, and information becomes a weapon to be yielded. Fact-checking is almost impossible in real-time, this is a privilege not given during a war.

This leads to Israeli and Palestinian activists and leaders immediately clinging to whatever narrative suits their interests - Regardless if it is true. So, let's look through the information currently available to us almost 6+ hours after the explosion at the hospital.

Fake News (Israeli Activists): Numerous videos, mainly posted by Israeli activists, were alleged to showcase a misfired rocket being the culprit - These videos were from 2021/22 and were irrelevant to this event.

Fake News (Palestinian Activists): Numerous Palestinian activists and organizations stated, without any doubt, that Israel was responsible for the airstrike. This claim was solely based on the reports by the Ministry of Health (governed by Hamas) -Who have vested interests to lie

Timeline:

1. At 19:00 the military wing of Hamas took responsibility for the rockets fired at southern Israel.

It's important to note that both Hamas and the PIJ have very extensive arsenals of rockets.

2. At 19:10 Al Resalah, a television channel reported that "The occupation targets Al-Ahly Baptist Hospital in central Gaza City, causing a large number of injuries"

(This was posted at the same time the PIJ (Palestinian Islamic Jihad) took responsibility for a rocket barrage)

3. IDF shelling of targets in the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood was reported at 18:58

4. IDF airstrikes were reported in northern Gaza at 19:12

(No IDF strikes were reported between 18:58 and 19:12)

5. First images from the hospital appear at 19:25.

6. The first video of the strike appears at 19:41.

Timeline Confirmed. Now we need to analyze raw footage from a live stream published by @AJEnglish, which is as follows:

This footage takes place at 18:59, directly before Hamas took responsibility for firing, we can see a single rocket fly upwards. Due to the fuel time on the rocket and the explosion, I'd assume this was most likely an R-160. It breaks/blows up at 0:10 and at 0:15 an explosion.

Based solely on this video, there is a high likelihood that this rocket misfired - but its payload was not entirely destroyed, resulting in a devastating explosion.
But how do we know this video showcases the explosion at the hospital?

Based on an OSINT analysis conducted by members of @AbuAliEnglishB1 , they were able to map the location of the explosion and confirm its location due to a unique structure in the video: Solar panels.
But how did it (allegedly) kill so many people?

An additional video of the alleged incident was also investigated by another OSINT account @GeoConfirmed and Twitter users who were able to pinpoint the location of the explosion. Analysis here:

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1714390274900734049

By reviewing graphic images provided by Palestinian channels (which I won't share here) and the OSINT conducted, we can confidently say that the projectile landed in the courtyard of the hospital - where potentially hundreds of refugees had accumulated; resulting in pure carnage.

Conclusion based on current data: A misfired rocket by Hamas/PIJ was responsible for the explosion at the hospital.

As more information presents itself, I will add to this analysis.

UPDATE to the analysis (18/10/2023) - 9 hours after the original analysis was published.

I will be reviewing a number of images from the scene of the explosion at the hospital, as well as analyze other factors and evidence not discussed earlier:

A Photo of the Al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza was published by "Shahab", a news agency located in Gaza.
This photo does not showcase "significant" damage to the hospital, let alone it being "raised to the ground" -but does hint at an explanation for the explosive power witnessed

As showcased in the photo, there is no significant crater that is visible - one we'd expect from an airstrike by the IDF. Instead, it appears that the cars hit exploded, particularly these ones.

Additionally, I analyzed the (graphic) video of those killed, and was able to pinpoint where it was taken (Yellow):
This courtyard, filled with people, would have been in the direct line of shrapnel from the rocket and exploded cars - resulting in horrific and gruesome injuries

A video, provided by @AbuAliEnglishB1 further proves this. Notice the bread and piles of supplies - further evidence that indicates that a large gathering of people were present during the explosion.

The photo and video both give strength to the hypothesis that a misfired rocket caused this explosion.
Now, let's analyze a number of questions being asked and information being shared:

1# @IDF releases a video of an alleged conversation between a Hamas and PIJ militant that proves they knew it was a misfire.

While this is interesting, I would never fully trust a source from a government body that can't b
corroborated by independent investigators.

2# Alleged Israeli government source that it was an airstrike.
This comes from @HananyaNaftali, who isn't an official source but does work for the IDF socials. He has a long record of making fake posts (Example below), and therefore I don't believe he is a credible source at all

3# The sound of the explosion; with some commentators claiming it to be a JDAM. This does not match the impact zone damage, but an audio analysis of the video is required for further conclusions to be made.
Video of that claim can be found here;

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714395174527254844

4# Death toll & claims made by Hamas via the Palestinian Ministry of Health:
The current numbers being reported are to be around 500, but the lack of video/photographic evidence raises doubts. I will need to wait for an official count of casualties for further analysis.

5# Reports of the official IDF Arabic facebook page gloating about the casualties.
I proved this to be a fake page yesterday evening:

https://twitter.com/talhagin/status/1714380729813971351

New conclusion: A misfire from Hamas/PIJ fell into an open courtyard filled with Palestinian refugees - resulting in secondary explosions of vehicles and large dispersions of shrapnel, causing grave injuries. The hospital itself was not directly hit but suffered damage.

UPDATE 3# to the analysis (18/10/2023) - After watching several more videos of the supposed misfire and carefully examining additional evidence, this extension will offer a more comprehensive understanding of what occurred last night.

3 videos of the alleged hospital explosion from Livestream cameras exist from cameras belonging to @AJEnglish, @N12News & 1 unknown sources (Still under review, but possibly also from @N12News ).
Let's review each one:

The first is by @AJEnglish. Previously in this thread, I already showcased that this is the live stream that witnessed the explosion at the hospital.
We see a trail of a missile/rocket right up until impact - not common with regular rockets (Possibly anti-air intercepting it)

The second video was provided by @N12News. It's not the best quality, but the timestamp matches the previous video timestamp. However, there is a barrage of rockets that appear here that aren't in the previous video.
How do we figure out why this is?

Based on the positioning of both cameras, this was where both camera crews (Blue-@AJEnglish / Yellow - @N12News ) were located. Lines indicate where the camera was pointing during the explosion.
It's possible they were not in view, but this explanation isn't satisfactory.

A similar video, from the same area as the @N12News (Possibly also theirs) professed to prove an Israeli airstrike was responsible. @Nrg8000 did a great OSINT investigation into disproving this, here:

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1714648344365302017

This video of the alleged explosion first appears at 20:38 on the jeninqassam telegram, over an hour after the initial explosion. I was not able to identify the location to verify it was the cause of the explosion. Thus, until we have an OSINT confirmation - should be ignored.

(1/2) Information available that currently needs further analysis:
1. Video by Al-Jazeera showcases what appears to be a mid-air explosion and less than 5 seconds later the explosion at the hospital: No analysis currently answers this.

2. The currently unconfirmed video of the initial explosion, if confirmed, gives weight to the artillery shell hypothesis.
If confirmed, further analysis of the audio and the courtyard would be needed. Preliminary analysis based on this being correct:

https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/1714419377305428295

New conclusion based on newly analyzed evidence: The possibility of the explosion being due to an artillery shell, or faulty anti-air has gained some credibility - assuming the initial video is authentic. Currently, the weight of the evidence still points to a Hamas/PIJ misfire.