First, I want to preface this analysis by pointing out that this account has been spreading disinformation and denialism about Ukraine for over a year. They have never acted in good faith, but for the people sharing his crap without knowing this I'll refute it at face value.
The argument is immediately refutable since the same camera did film the explosion at the hospital, in footage youve probably seen, an hour earlier, at 6:59pm.
The time stamp in the video he shared is an hour later, at 7:59pm.
Note that the IDF claims the explosion happened at 6:59pm (and claimed that before this video was released), the first open reports of the blast were around 7:15-7:20pm, all well before the video this jabroni is sharing, which is literally timestamped 7:59pm.
He stupidly claims that the reason for this is that the camera's timestamp was off by an hour.
Not impossible in its own right, but very stupid here because if the footage that says 6:59 was actually shot at 5:59, it'd be daylight.
He then also tried to geolocate the video, and gets it wrong.
The cone of view he's claiming the camera can show isn't even pointing at Gaza City. It literally would not show the hospital, and the rocket fire would be shooting from Israel (into Israel)
Morever, let's look at the picture and geolocation side-by-side. Even if it was this building, he's looking at the wrong side of it. The buildings he is claiming it shows also has a column of windows between the black decal and the corner, which the footage shows isnt the case.
In fairness, the geolocation is only off by about 200m. But it is facing the entirely wrong direction. The camera was actually at 31.439871, 34.573232 and (obviously) facing West towards Gaza and not north towards Ashkelon.
This can also be demonstrated by the road and building in the bakground, along with the facade of the closest building.
So now we know the real location the video was filmed from, we can look at the angles. The bearing from the camera to the hospital is around 304°. More notably, it is just to the left of the corner of the right-most close building. Exactly where it appears in the 6:59 video.
Meanwhile in the 7:59 video, the blast is around 1/3 of the way between that background building and the tower. At a bearing of around 297.5°. If we draw these bearings out as far as Gaza, it's obvious that the 7:59pm explosion we see is kilometres away from the hospital.
This is an example of the damage pseudo-OSINT analysis can do. Poor techniques used to 'confirm' an already-made-up-mind results in incorrect geolocation, incorrect chronolocation and completely wrong conclusions. And ends up being ammo for denialists and others.
FYI they deleted the tweet saying that the camera's clock was off by an hour, because that would mean the night-time footage wouldve been filmed before sunset. but here it is for posterity's sake.
Whoops, the geolocation tweet is gone too...
Also, the bearing towards the rocket fire in the 6:59pm video (above the left-hand-side of the 2nd-storey in the home in the background) gives a line that points almost directly at the IDF-claimed, radar detected, rocket launch site. Again proving this is video of that incident.
The whole thread has been nuked now since it was obviously wrong, but a number of other serial spreaders of disinformation are still spreading the video, so just keep an eye out.
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The craziest thing is that the LA protests are remarkably normal, dare I say pedestrian. Theres no significant or widespread destruction, barely any meaningful resistance to law enforcement.
It's so transparently obvious that the Trump admin wants to fabricate a crisis.
There is absolutely zero tactical or strategic need for any federal support to control what we've seen this weekend. Yet the admin has been able to completely dominate and distort the conversation with barely any pushback from the democratic establishment or even the media.
By the way, when I say 'barely any meaningful resistance' I don't mean no skirmishes, I mean that at NO point have the police not been able to quickly and effectively perform whatever crowd control action they deem necessary.
Which is absolutely credit to the protesters.
🧵Geolocations of ALL sites that the Indian Army has claimed to have hit in Pakistan and Kashmir. 1. Masjid Syedna Bilal/Hazrat Bilal
34.385846°N 73.456974°E
It appears to have been a direct hit, according to after-strike ground photos. google.com/maps/place/34%…
2. Reported training camp in Gulpur, Kotli
33.402328°N 73.876957°E
No post-strike imagery yet. google.com/maps/place/33%…
3. Masjid Ahl-e-Hadis in Barnala, Bhimber.
32.867802°N 74.256469°E
Quadcopter-dropped munition appear to miss the target building and strike a courtyard around 50m away. google.com/maps/place/32%…
There's a horrendous amount of violence happening over the past few days in Syria, and a tremendous amount of uncertainty in numbers, details & actors. Yet it's astounding just how few people (including mainstream journalists) are engaging with these incidents in any good faith.
So many people are visibly giddy at the idea that the new Syrian government is committing atrocities. And as a result, absolutely misrepresenting the violence that is occurring. It's pulling in the pro-SDF crowd (biji!biji!) the Assadist crowd (counter-revolution!), the pro-Israel crowd (only the IDF can protect minorities!), the idiot Westerners (Assad was the thin blue line!) and even mainstream journalism (finally some spice to report).
And as a result, its the most counter-productive information environment I've seen around Syria since the chemical attack information ops.
It's imperative we find the details of these atrocities, who is involved and hold them accountable. It's crucial this is prevented from becoming a wider sectarian conflict.
And it's wild that most reporting and commentary is acting as a barrier to this, not a help.
🧵Look towards the light.
As Rebel forces in Syria advanced across Syria & never stopped a key question was why the Regime evaporated. Syria by night provides some clues on how the Regime's social contract collapsed.
Read my analysis here
& read onaspistrategist.org.au/just-look-at-t…
There are three pillars to why the Regime collapsed so suddenly and drastically: 1. Complete lack of foreign firepower and air support 2. Increased professionalism and good governance in Opposition territory 3. Economic stagnation and the collapse of Assad's social contract.
I'm sure lots will be written on that first pillar, @azelin recently wrote a detailed and helpful article on the 2nd (warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-pa…), and @E_of_Justice's thread here is helpful too x.com/E_of_Justice/s…
I think the rest of the world just has to realise the US we thought we all knew probably just doesn't exist and hasn't for a while. We need to shift our assumptions and look at the US in the same way we look at India.
Harris didn't lose this race, and post mortems are useless. America made an informed and considered choice and picked the man they did. There's probably not much a reasonable democratic campaign could've done to change that. America saw Trump. And they liked him.
This also isn't a slight on India, it's a remarkable (and deeply flawed) country that we work with productively and well, it's just an entirely different ballgame (and sense of exceptionalism), and honestly the lens we will need to look at the States through imo.
🧵On May 17, fire swept through Rohingya neighbourhoods in Buthidaung.
Satellites show what burnt and when, and my new investigation reveals an arson campaign against 50-60 villages & demonstates who carried it out.
Through April and May, arson attacks burnt around 900 acres and over 10,000 homes across Buthidaung township in the most concerning and dangerous bout of sectarian and communal violence since the 2017 pogrom that expelled Rohingyas from much of northern Arakan state.
As flames rose above Buthidaung town on the night of May 17th, the activist community and eyewitnesses pointed the finger at the Arakan Army, an ultra-nationalist Ethnic Resistance Organisation rapidly capturing that part of Burma. Something the AA viciously denied.