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Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Oct 18, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X

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The Frontelligence Insight team analyzed reports of a successful strike at Berdiansk airport using high-res imagery from September and medium-res imagery from October 17th. The analysis confirmed the strike's success. 🧵Thread:

2/ The official Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) account has officially confirmed the successful execution of Operation "Dragonfly." This operation effectively targeted both Berdyansk and Luhansk Airfields

3/ Our preliminary analysis aligns with the statement from the MoD, indicating that multiple vehicles are likely to be burnt or destroyed. Yet, due to the limited quality of the available imagery, we cannot definitively determine the extent of this damage at this time.

4/ By examining historical imagery from September and August, it becomes evident that this section of the airfield has consistently been used to house attack helicopters, including models such as the Mi-28, Mi-24, and Ka-52.

5/ The high consistency strongly suggests that the lost Russian helicopters match those previously identified in this area. Additionally, it's important to note that many other helicopters have remained parked on the airstrip, even after the attack.

6/ In conclusion, it's important to acknowledge that the damage is probably more widespread than reported here. There are additional signs of destruction on the airfield, but we haven't included them in this report because we couldn't properly identify damaged objects

7/ Nevertheless, the impact of this devastating attack is undeniable. It will likely disrupt helicopter operations in the South of Ukraine for some time, compelling the Russians to adjust their logistics and the operations of nearby helicopter bases.

8/ If you found our report valuable, we invite you to follow us on our project's website. The imagery is accessible thanks to premium subscribers and your contributions through Buy Me a Coffee.

A higher-resolution images have been published by (@cxemu) moments ago.

Turns out we accurately assessed the damage with a much lower resolution.

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Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 23

China is reportedly ready to send peacekeepers to Ukraine, according to Welt am Sonntag, citing European diplomats. Meanwhile, Frontelligence Insight is releasing a list of Chinese companies involved in scaling Russia’s Shahed drone program. Here is the list:

/2 Despite its efforts to present itself as a geopolitical actor capable of peacemaking, Chinese companies help to scale Russia's military production. As the data show, most of these companies are either not sanctioned or face restrictions from only a limited number of countries

3/ There are serious inconsistencies in sanctions, undermining their effectiveness. To maximize impact, sanctions should be coordinated across multiple states with leverage over China, including the United States, the European Union, the Commonwealth realms, Japan, and others.

Read 10 tweets

Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 22

iStories recently reported that Russian recruitment was falling, citing federal budget data on sign-up bonuses. In reality, enlistment still runs above 30,000 a month, and the dip reflects changes in published data, not an actual slowdown 🧵There are a few nuances, though:

2/ They reported that several regions, including Irkutsk and Vladimir, are struggling with recruitment. That is true, and has been an issue in many areas, which helps explain the steady rise in sign-up bonuses. Some recruits even register in other regions to secure higher payouts

3/ Still, despite ever-higher bonuses, Russia has found ways to offset shortfalls by drawing from the freshly detained and pre-trial prisoners, while increasingly pressuring illegal migrants and conscripts into signing contracts.

Read 4 tweets

Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 21

News of Ukrainian missile production (Flamingo missile) is inspiring, both at home and abroad. Yet, unless the production site, which was opened for journalists, was staged for cameras, it is striking how many details were left exposed - enough to make geolocation possible.

2/ Equally concerning is the decision to show crew members’ faces and list their positions. In our past investigations, my team was able to identify Russian servicemen and intelligence officers using just one facial photo, tracing some even to their actual home addresses

3/ Revealing factory staff could enable local agents from locals to follow employees and, in turn, uncover the site almost certainly making it a target. The interior itself is highly distinctive, a skilled team could likely narrow its location to a handful of candidates.

Read 4 tweets

Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 20

Exclusive Report: Shipments of engines, cylinders, pistons, and electronics are pouring from China into Alabuga, fueling Russia’s Shahed production. Frontelligence Insight analyzed export data, closed reports, and open sources, revealing the scale of support. 🧵Thread:

2/ Russia has sharply ramped up its use of Shahed (Geran), Garpia, and Gerbera UAVs, from dozens of launches in 2022 to tens of thousands per month by 2025. While Iran played a key role early on, it became clear that the only country that could scale the production was China.

3/ One of the biggest production bottlenecks was engines and electronics, without which large-scale Shahed production would be impossible. To address this, Russia set up multiple LLCs and intermediaries to streamline industrial-scale purchases and deliveries from China

Read 18 tweets

Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 20

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence has posted a 3D model of an unidentified Russian UAV on its WarSanctions platform, complete with detailed descriptions and an interactive view. Key details on the drone, in 🧵thread:

2/ It can serve as a reconnaissance drone, loitering munition, or a decoy meant to overload Ukraine’s air defenses. Structurally, the drone features a delta-wing fuselage, similar to the Geran-1 (Shahed-131) but slightly smaller.

3/ The unidentified drone is powered by a two-stroke gasoline DLE engine produced by China’s Mile Haoxiang Technology Co.

The DLE engine is mounted in the nose of the fuselage, making the drone most similar to the “Italmas” loitering munition produced by Russia’s Zala Group

Read 7 tweets

Tatarigami_UA

@Tatarigami_UA

Aug 19

If we focus on the bigger picture today, the overall situation is not that bad. We went from Russia’s 2022 demands: military downsizing, government changes, the secession of multiple regions, and other demands: to a much shorter list of demands today:

2/ Notably, Ukraine has also stepped back from its maximalist demands for a de facto return to its 1991 borders and the full withdrawal of Russian forces. Clearly, its stance against direct negotiations has been abandoned as well.

3/ Whether this will work or not is beyond the scope of this message, but interestingly, if you read some of the more-or-less “semi-independent” Russian “Z” channels, not just those that repeat state propaganda, you can see that this realization is starting to take hold

Read 5 tweets

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