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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Oct 18 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The most important thing in this video is the existence of the video.

The video demonstrates how persistent drone surveillance makes drone counter-battery far more effective than with a traditional counter-battery radar.

Drone counter-battery🧵
1/
The drone based, persistent, Sauron from Lord of the Rings-like "All Seeing Eye" didn't just "kill the archer" the way a CB-Radar does.

The drone's persistent surveillance killed two "archers" & an important node in the artillery supply chain supporting both destroyed Grads
2/
Counter-battery radars like the AN/TPQ-53 Quick Reaction Capability Radar are simply a lot more expensive that drones, are uniquely vulnerable to anti-radiation missiles, and take a long time to replace.

Furthermore, CB-radars are much more limited in allocated frequencies...
3/
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...and radiated R/F power to accomplish their mission than drones are.

And whether drones are the "all seeing eye" for GMLRS, or are the munition themselves.

This cost disparity in a resource limited world will see radars like AN/TPQ-53 displaced...

4/
...by large numbers of cheaper highly persistent drones like the Ukrainian Shark.

As artificial intelligence improves, more and more performance at the same cheap costs will accrue to Shark class drones.

Network effects of lots of small & smart...
5/
...surveillance nodes servicing many cheap drone munitions launchers versus a few centrally controlled CB-radars will seal the deal.

The drone internet network model is simply far better able to use available computing power than the old centralized/mainframe/Star command
6/
...and control Western Artillery it's CB-radar sensor organizations.

The combination of cheaper costs and higher computational efficiency per dollar investment we are seeing in Ukraine's use of drones that is the future of 21st century fire support.

7/7 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 19
The stupid from the media 'investigations' about that Gaza hospital here just burns.

Air burst weapons have an easily checked visual and auditory signature.

Anyone with a internet search engine can find them.

1/
Now look at this aerial video of buildings in the aftermath of the Battle for the Village of Moschun, near Kyiv.

There is not a single airburst fragmentation pattern to be seen.


3/
Now look at this aerial video of buildings in the aftermath of the Battle for the Village of Moschun, near Kyiv.

There is not a single airburst fragmentation pattern to be seen.


3/
Read 9 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 19
About those Hamas tunnels in Gaza...

...this old thread of mine from 2021 goes into the use magnetic anomaly detectors and ground penetrating radar to find Hamas tunnel complexes.

IDF Tunnel busting Tech🧵
1/
Israel has a lot of ground penetrating radar (GPR) contractors.

The GPR tool is used to locate pipes, cables and other underground utilities which haven't been properly mapped before backhoes start digging up.

It's an insurance due diligence thing.🙄

2/
GPR have been a part of US Military anti-tunnel tactics since the late 1990's because of DPRK nuclear weapons developments and the work of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA).

3/
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 18
I've been pounding on the theme of the attrition of the Russian truck fleet for sometime in many text threads.

Let's try a short visual one to calibrate your eyes.

This is a Mar 1, 2022 visual of RuAF truck movements.

Russian truck logistics 🧵
1/
This is a Mar 31, 2023 visual of RuAF truck movements.

In 2022 RuAF was using tactical trucks for logistical movements in Belarus.

In 2023, they are using mainly Semi-trucks inside Ukraine.

2/
There has been a huge amount of RuAF truck attrition we just don't see in social media OSINT accounts.

Operational attrition (crashes & bad maintenance) kills a whole lot of Russian trucks we don't see.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 16
Both of these statements are true, but they miss the most important point.

It shows lengthy and careful preparation, plus well managed covert logistical support.

Western and Israeli intel folk were either incompetent at the wheel with Hamas - or providing assessments
1/
...politicians wanted to hear.

I think both occurred, but the competence matters far less than senior leaders who reward being lied too in order to support their delusions about the world.

Yet the brutal ignorance & technical incompetence demonstrated by Western & Israeli

2/
...intelligence of the implications of the GPS jamming on Iran’s road to Lebanon just makes me shake my head.

The implications of the map be low stands out like an airport beacon.

Former CIA director & DoD SecDef Gates "no major wars" defenestration of US EW capability,

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 15
Most of these weapons came through Hamas tunnels from Egypt.

There is a coastal sea trade/smuggling from Lebanon to Egypt and from Iran through the Red Sea to the Sinai.

1/
The satellite geo-located map of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) jamming provided by the @AOCrows recent webinar makes clear the Lebanon coastal trade to Egypt is the most used, as Iran has placed a lot of jammers on the truck route from Iran to the Mediterranean.

2/ Image
GPS/GNSS jamming has reduced the accuracy of Israeli bombs and missiles.

While some of those jammers in Syria are Russian. Most are Iranian.

It is this pattern of jamming that makes me believe Egyptian claims they told Israel something big was about to happen in Gaza
3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 13
I think this assessment of Israeli public opinion is correct:

"Calls for restraint and protestations about the finer points of international law are going to fall on deaf ears."

IDF 'Collateral Damage Implications' for the International Media 🧵
1/
This event is downstream from the Israeli gloves coming off.

Any international journalists using sat-phones for transmitting video within 30 kilometers of IDF forces in Israel are going to be treated as a Hamas or Hezbollah transmitter and eat artillery shells or rockets.

2/ Image
International media video transmissions look a lot like Hamas or Hezbollah drone operator or remote television sensor command and control positions to Israeli ELINT sensors.

They are going to be treated as such for the duration of the current Gaza war.
3/
Read 11 tweets

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