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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Oct 18 • 8 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I've been pounding on the theme of the attrition of the Russian truck fleet for sometime in many text threads.

Let's try a short visual one to calibrate your eyes.

This is a Mar 1, 2022 visual of RuAF truck movements.

Russian truck logistics 🧵
1/
This is a Mar 31, 2023 visual of RuAF truck movements.

In 2022 RuAF was using tactical trucks for logistical movements in Belarus.

In 2023, they are using mainly Semi-trucks inside Ukraine.

2/
There has been a huge amount of RuAF truck attrition we just don't see in social media OSINT accounts.

Operational attrition (crashes & bad maintenance) kills a whole lot of Russian trucks we don't see.

3/
This is evidence of some number of Russian trucks that Ukrainian partisans have been killing for over 600 days, which we never see.

4/
Even the best OSINT analysis of overhead satellite or drone video isn't going to see a lot of tactical truck killing fragmentation damage.

It's too small to see without a big truck fire or a Russian with a cellphone camera & a social media post.

5/
The same OSINT "GMLRS fragmentation analysis gap" also applies to civilian tractor-trailer rigs.

If they don't burn. They don't count.

Yet no one is going to drive those trucks.

6/
The previous visuals make abundantly clear we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg as far as Russian truck losses in this war are concerned.

Lanchester Square Law collapse happens "slowly, then all at once" for logistical reasons which are very hard to measure.

7/7 End Image
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 18
The most important thing in this video is the existence of the video.

The video demonstrates how persistent drone surveillance makes drone counter-battery far more effective than with a traditional counter-battery radar.

Drone counter-battery🧵
1/
The drone based, persistent, Sauron from Lord of the Rings-like "All Seeing Eye" didn't just "kill the archer" the way a CB-Radar does.

The drone's persistent surveillance killed two "archers" & an important node in the artillery supply chain supporting both destroyed Grads
2/
Counter-battery radars like the AN/TPQ-53 Quick Reaction Capability Radar are simply a lot more expensive that drones, are uniquely vulnerable to anti-radiation missiles, and take a long time to replace.

Furthermore, CB-radars are much more limited in allocated frequencies...
3/
Image
Image
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 16
Both of these statements are true, but they miss the most important point.

It shows lengthy and careful preparation, plus well managed covert logistical support.

Western and Israeli intel folk were either incompetent at the wheel with Hamas - or providing assessments
1/
...politicians wanted to hear.

I think both occurred, but the competence matters far less than senior leaders who reward being lied too in order to support their delusions about the world.

Yet the brutal ignorance & technical incompetence demonstrated by Western & Israeli

2/
...intelligence of the implications of the GPS jamming on Iran’s road to Lebanon just makes me shake my head.

The implications of the map be low stands out like an airport beacon.

Former CIA director & DoD SecDef Gates "no major wars" defenestration of US EW capability,

3/ Image
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 15
Most of these weapons came through Hamas tunnels from Egypt.

There is a coastal sea trade/smuggling from Lebanon to Egypt and from Iran through the Red Sea to the Sinai.

1/
The satellite geo-located map of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) jamming provided by the @AOCrows recent webinar makes clear the Lebanon coastal trade to Egypt is the most used, as Iran has placed a lot of jammers on the truck route from Iran to the Mediterranean.

2/ Image
GPS/GNSS jamming has reduced the accuracy of Israeli bombs and missiles.

While some of those jammers in Syria are Russian. Most are Iranian.

It is this pattern of jamming that makes me believe Egyptian claims they told Israel something big was about to happen in Gaza
3/3 End
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 13
I think this assessment of Israeli public opinion is correct:

"Calls for restraint and protestations about the finer points of international law are going to fall on deaf ears."

IDF 'Collateral Damage Implications' for the International Media 🧵
1/
This event is downstream from the Israeli gloves coming off.

Any international journalists using sat-phones for transmitting video within 30 kilometers of IDF forces in Israel are going to be treated as a Hamas or Hezbollah transmitter and eat artillery shells or rockets.

2/ Image
International media video transmissions look a lot like Hamas or Hezbollah drone operator or remote television sensor command and control positions to Israeli ELINT sensors.

They are going to be treated as such for the duration of the current Gaza war.
3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 13
A lot of X accounts, myself included, have been talking about the Avdiivka 🦃shoot.

And yes, there is a lot going on there...

More to the war than the Avdiivka 🦃shoot🧵
1/
As this post's laying out the last three days RuAF losses at Avdiivka makes clear

2/
However, commander of the Tavria operational-strategic group claims:
786 people.
13 tanks,
34 armored fighting vehicles,
17 artillery systems,
3 anti-tank systems,
1 mounted anti-tank grenade launcher,
1 air defense system,
6 UAVs and
5 vehicles
3/
 ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/377…
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 11
It's time to talk about the AFU's Avdiivka🦃 shoot of the RuAF.

The @PStyle0ne1 account had a very nice thread posting many videos of the failed Russian assault.

Check them out and come back here to read the rest of my thread.

Avdiivka🦃 shoot🧵

1/
The Denis Pyatigorets account on facebook gives the following run down of RuAF losses in the battle to date.

19 artillery systems
19 UAV
34 Tanks
91 armored vehicles (BTR/BMP/MTLB)
24 units of different machinery (Trucks, etc)
And one more VKS jet.

2/
 facebook.com/denis.pyatigor…
Pyatigorets also states Russia took 820 deaths and up to three times that in wounded.

This claim is based on the extensive use by AFU of US & Turkish artillery cluster munitions on Russian infantry.


3/
Read 12 tweets

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