Thread by @emilkastehelmi

The Russians have been attacking in the Avdiivka direction for a week.

Even though the intensity of the offensive has decreased, Russia has suffered large equipment losses and has made very limited progress, Ukraine is still in a potentially dangerous situation. 1/

The general situation in Avdiivka is clear. Russians attempt to encircle the city from two sides. In order to do this, the Russians would have to advance through multiple fields and villages. After a week of fighting, Ukraine still has a 7-8 km gap between the Russian pincers. 2/

As the frontlines have been largely static for almost a year now, the Ukrainians have had time to prepare. The terrain mostly favors the defender, and there aren’t many surprising directions of advance. The Russians likely noticed this too during the last week. 3/

Next, we will take a closer look on the Russian efforts on both sides of the city. In short, the Russians didn't achieve much in terms of captured square kilometres. However, they did lose much in terms of manpower and vehicles. 4/

Northern sector:

Initially some Russian units managed to reach the railroad and the waste heap on the northern side of Avdiivka. Ukraine inflicted major losses on the advancing units. It seems Russians have failed to establish a lasting foothold in either of these points. 5/

Southern sector:

Russia tried to attack from Vodiane towards Sieverne and Tonenke. There was some minor progress at some treelines, but mostly the attacks were repelled. There is no indication of Ukraine losing any villages or significant positions in this area. 6/

Avdiivka bears very limited strategical meaning. If the Russians capture it, they won't have any good options for continuing the offensive. The area behind Avdiivka doesn't directly enable further operations. Capturing Avdiivka would only straighten the frontline. 7/

Russian goals seem to be more of a political nature. They have not had any victories in months - capturing Bakhmut was hardly one. The Avdiivka salient could provide, in theory, possibilities for faster success. However, Russians have not yet been able to exploit this. 8/

Even though the first attacks were repelled, Russia will likely attack in this direction again in the future. There aren't many similar targets elsewhere. Progress will probably be slow, naturally depending on how much resources Russia will direct into capturing Avdiivka. 9/

In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it. 10/

In the long run, Ukraine may need to solve the encirclement threat with a counterattack. Especially the northern direction can develop into a real issue. Russians don’t need to advance far in order to make the situation more complicated for AFU. The distances are short. 11/

There are some worrying features, even though Ukraine managed to repel Russians for now.

Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite. 12/

Even though it seems Russians have learned some lessions from previous offensives, for example from Vuhledar, the tactical outcome of the offensive in Avdiivka was still a failure. This, however, indicates that Russia aims to actively learn and adapt. 13/

There are many uncertainties and possible future developments in the battle of Avdiivka. Our team at
@Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation.

Had to repost final tweet, linked the wrong profile first. 14/14

Link to our interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…