Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 19 15 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
About those Hamas tunnels in Gaza...

...this old thread of mine from 2021 goes into the use magnetic anomaly detectors and ground penetrating radar to find Hamas tunnel complexes.

IDF Tunnel busting Tech🧵
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Israel has a lot of ground penetrating radar (GPR) contractors.

The GPR tool is used to locate pipes, cables and other underground utilities which haven't been properly mapped before backhoes start digging up.

It's an insurance due diligence thing.🙄

2/
GPR have been a part of US Military anti-tunnel tactics since the late 1990's because of DPRK nuclear weapons developments and the work of the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA).

3/
DTRA got the DPRK tunnel busting mission in 1996 during the 2nd Clinton Administration.

DTRA picked up and expanded on a mission of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Far East District’s (FED) going back to 1974.

4/
dtra.mil/About/DTRA-His…
That ex-US Army & now DTRA mission was stopping North Korean tunnels under the Korean demilitarized zone.

And this DTRA mission wasn't simply limited to sensors.

5/
army.mil/article/248497…

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DTRA was also concerned about terrorists home brew chemical and biological weapons and funded basic research on a 2000 lb thermobaric & dirt/concrete penetrating bomb to sterilize the threat of such 'sub-national' laboratories, as well as DPRK tunnels.

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Come 9/11/2001, all the elements for what became the BLU-118 were in place, save for the money to execute the technology.

A month later, an emergency program to create the BLU-118 armor piercing thermobaric bomb was underway to dig out Al-Qaeda from it's Afghan caves.

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This photo clip from Globalsecurity -dot- org has a lot of information on the BLU-118's development history.

A 2,000lb BLU-118 with a JDAMs guidance kit is a technological answer to many tunnel problems.

And the BLU-118 has been in Israeli Air Force hands for over a decade.

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There have been many videos of BLU-118/B thermobaric warheads cracking Hamas tunnels in Gaza.

Such tunnel strikes have a characteristic upwards jet of fuel rich, hot/black, combustion smoke.

9/
Here is another video of a BLU-118/B tunnel strike.

10/
This video has the aftermath of a BLU-118 attack on a Hamas tunnel system looks like

The edges of the manholes all show the supersonic erosion that a thermobaric weapon erupting from an enclosed space causes.

11/
This photo is thermal image view of a Blu-118 tunnel attack.

It comes from a NY TIMES 'analysis' on youtube - read speculation tarted up as fact - titled "Gaza’s Deadly Night: How Israeli Airstrikes Killed 44 People."

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This is another drone thermal camera view that was mislabeled by the NY TIMES as six impact craters on Al Wada Street.

They are in fact the signature of a single thermobaric bomb's fuel expanding out a complete Hamas tunnel system.

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The issue is less Hamas tunnels for Israel than Hamas bunker systems under Gaza urban terrain than the fact Hamas has had 15 years to make that urban terrain nastier than Iwo Jima.

The Hamas tunnels are storage for rockets that reach central Israel.

The Hamas defensive...

14/
...bunker system can be taken by either an assault or by siege.

The former will cause about 20,000 IDF casualties while the latter will cause around ~8,000.

Either IDF approach will cost hundreds of thousands of Palestinians lives because Hamas is a death cult.

15/15 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Oct 21
This is one of the reasons I believe the USN's Constellation class FFG is as obsolete as the LCS before it hit the water.

It lacks enough VLS cells for the missile threat and enough 30mm(+) autocannons for the drone threat.

Drones means 2x57mm,

USN Command Culture 🧵
1/
Image
...4xCIWS (30mm+), & 64 VLS cells plus several light autocannon are the floor capability for a naval combatant.

For a power projection naval combatant, you are also going to need an old style Mark 26 launcher plus 32-to-64 VLS cells because you can reload at Mark 26 via...

2/ Image
...underway replenishment (UNREP).

Drones have made all current VLS cell designs that can't be reloaded underway 'unfit for purpose' in a power projection navy.

These limitations reflect both the technological and logistical incompetence of USN flag ranks and their staffs.

3/
Read 22 tweets
Oct 20
And remember, these Russian losses are _UNDERCOUNTED_ due to the OSINT technical limitation in recognizing fragmentation damage caused by US & Turkish cluster munitions & airburst 155mm shells.

And this OSINT UNDERCOUNT has been true the entire war.

1/
And please carefully note, SO HAVE WESTERN INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATES OF RUSSIAN LOSSES.

EVERYONE forgets the problems of fragmentation battle damage assessments between wars.

Just like they forget actual tire & artillery shell usage rates & the subsequent wartime shortages.

2/
Battle damage assessment errors are the problem everyone wants fixed after a war shows how wrong they were.

But no one wants to pay for the reconnaissance assets and intelligence training to do the mission between wars.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Oct 19
The stupid from the media 'investigations' about that Gaza hospital here just burns.

Air burst weapons have an easily checked visual and auditory signature.

Anyone with a internet search engine can find them.

1/
Now look at this aerial video of buildings in the aftermath of the Battle for the Village of Moschun, near Kyiv.

There is not a single airburst fragmentation pattern to be seen.


3/
Now look at this aerial video of buildings in the aftermath of the Battle for the Village of Moschun, near Kyiv.

There is not a single airburst fragmentation pattern to be seen.


3/
Read 9 tweets
Oct 18
I've been pounding on the theme of the attrition of the Russian truck fleet for sometime in many text threads.

Let's try a short visual one to calibrate your eyes.

This is a Mar 1, 2022 visual of RuAF truck movements.

Russian truck logistics 🧵
1/
This is a Mar 31, 2023 visual of RuAF truck movements.

In 2022 RuAF was using tactical trucks for logistical movements in Belarus.

In 2023, they are using mainly Semi-trucks inside Ukraine.

2/
There has been a huge amount of RuAF truck attrition we just don't see in social media OSINT accounts.

Operational attrition (crashes & bad maintenance) kills a whole lot of Russian trucks we don't see.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 18
The most important thing in this video is the existence of the video.

The video demonstrates how persistent drone surveillance makes drone counter-battery far more effective than with a traditional counter-battery radar.

Drone counter-battery🧵
1/
The drone based, persistent, Sauron from Lord of the Rings-like "All Seeing Eye" didn't just "kill the archer" the way a CB-Radar does.

The drone's persistent surveillance killed two "archers" & an important node in the artillery supply chain supporting both destroyed Grads
2/
Counter-battery radars like the AN/TPQ-53 Quick Reaction Capability Radar are simply a lot more expensive that drones, are uniquely vulnerable to anti-radiation missiles, and take a long time to replace.

Furthermore, CB-radars are much more limited in allocated frequencies...
3/
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Read 8 tweets
Oct 16
Both of these statements are true, but they miss the most important point.

It shows lengthy and careful preparation, plus well managed covert logistical support.

Western and Israeli intel folk were either incompetent at the wheel with Hamas - or providing assessments
1/
...politicians wanted to hear.

I think both occurred, but the competence matters far less than senior leaders who reward being lied too in order to support their delusions about the world.

Yet the brutal ignorance & technical incompetence demonstrated by Western & Israeli

2/
...intelligence of the implications of the GPS jamming on Iran’s road to Lebanon just makes me shake my head.

The implications of the map be low stands out like an airport beacon.

Former CIA director & DoD SecDef Gates "no major wars" defenestration of US EW capability,

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Read 11 tweets

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