Now that the Ashli hospital flap is over, the media must prepare for a story that will be difficult to navigate. The Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City is also the command center for Hamas. At some point, it will be an Israeli target. A legitimate military target, per the laws of war
There will be massive information operations when this command center is targeted. Al-Jazeera and others will lead the charge. They will ignore that Mohammed Deif & Yahya Sinwar are there, among other Hamas military . I strongly recommend reporters start gathering facts now.
Among other things, media should gather info on the underground of the al-Shifa compound, Mohammed Deif, Yahya Sinwar, American human shields legislation, NATO-UN views on human shields & Hamas info ops.
War is ugly. This very predictable episode will only underscore that.
And just to remind folks: after an utter media failure, in which multiple outlets mistakenly reported an Israeli war crime, there has been a total revision based on facts that contradict the original erroneous reporting.
There will be a next time. It can’t be more clear: Shifa.
Also worth noting, Israel will not have much of a choice when the Shifa moment arrives. Hamas will fight brutally to the end, and it will fight behind civilians. This is a dynamic that cannot be ignored. Al-Shifa will be the eye of the storm.
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In 2014, Arouri claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and killing of 3 teens in the West Bank. That Hamas operation led to a 51-day war between Hamas and Israel.
I've just put my Turkey in the oven. So, it's now time to revive a Turkey Day tradition.
Something is rotten in Turkey. Lots of things, actually. Let's review.
A thread….
I started watching Turkey's terror activity in 2010. That year Turkey sent a flotilla to Gaza to help the Hamas terrorist organization break out of isolation.
An NGO called IHH organized. IHH is nasty, with all kinds of terror ties. I analyzed here:
IHH is still up to no good. The group recently organized a massive riot at the gates of the Incirilik air base, where US servicemen maintain a base that is crucial to American interests in the Middle East.
20 days after war was declared, Israeli officials and media are signaling that Gaza ground maneuvers are drawing near. Chapter 2 of this horrific saga is set to begin.
A few observations on what lies ahead:
1. The early hours of the ground maneuver will reveal whether Iran/Hamas planned additional surprises when they launched the war on 10/7
2. The IDF will reportedly engage differently than in previous ground wars. New tactics expected.
3. American deterrence will be tested, with Hezbollah expected to fire upon Israel in greater numbers, and Iranian proxies expected to target American assets
4. I’ll be watching the West Bank and Syria as other fronts Iran might activate after ground ops begin
A few observations about the US-Israel dynamic as the Biden Admin inches closer to a reckless and potentially lethal nuclear deal:
1. Much was made of the enmity between Obama and Bibi. Both Biden and Bennett/Lapid vowed not to go down that path for the good of the alliance
2. The goal was to have transparency between the two governments while keeping disagreements private and out of the public eye.
3. Bennett/Lapid believed they would be rewarded for this dynamic with the freer flow of info, if not more influence on the Iran talks.
4. This turned out to be wrong on both fronts. The deal that is looming appears to be far worse than the last one (quite a feat). And when Israeli officials tried to engage, they found Biden officials to be largely unavailable. Hell of a message.
1. Notable this is happening while Vienna talks return. A side plot, but undeniably on the minds of US negotiators
2. Interesting to see how Hamas reacts if PIJ attempts to escalate. Hamas is the “sovereign” in Gaza.
3. Israel has far fewer constraints in hammering PIJ. It’s a full fledged Iranian proxy. It may be an opportunity for Israel to demonstrate what a gloves-off approach would look like. Hezbollah would be the intended audience, for sure.
The new Iran deal reeks of capitulation. It will enrich the regime. And then it will backfire. Iran will acquire nukes. Everyone knows it. Including the negotiators. And it’s nauseating to watch world leaders pretend otherwise.
Should the deal come to fruition, and there is a high likelihood it will, analysts will flood your feed with complex analyses: nuclear, sanctions, etc. But it will not change many minds. It didn’t last time, either. It certainly won’t now, with Russia committing atrocities
Here’s the bottom line: the world’s leading terror sponsor gets billions, it gets missiles that can hit America, and it gets to continue making the stuff (enriched uranium) that makes nukes. Nothing else really matters. And the White House doesn’t seem to care.