Clément Molin Profile picture
Oct 20, 2023 16 tweets 7 min read Read on X
Le massacre d'#Avdiivka

En l'espace de 10 jours, l'armée Russe 🇷🇺 a perdu ~117 blindés dans ses attaques entre Avdiivka et #Novomykhalivka.

85 uniquement dans l'attaque d'Avdiivka, avec aucune avancée pour le moment. (29 pertes dans le champ à l'image⬇️)

Analyse 🧵
1/14 Image
Le massacre a commencé début Octobre par un autre village bien plus au sud: 21 pièces d'équipements ont été perdues dans l'attaque de Novomykhalivka.

Regardons rapidement ces pertes:

(le trajet des groupes est matérialisé en jaune, les dernières positions Russes en rouge)
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Au Nord Est
Au Sud Est
Au Sud *2

21 pertes:

8 tanks
7 BMP
4 MTLB
1 TOS 1A
1 IMR 2
3/14


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On passe très rapidement sur une petite attaque de 3 BMP en direction de la mine de Krasnohorivka (la ville, pas le village)
En juillet? Difficile de savoir si c'est une nouvelle attaque ou une ancienne.
4/14 Image
Passons à l'attaque Russe depuis Pisky en direction de Pervomaïske:

3 tanks
4 IFV (dont 2 BMP)
1 Ural
1 TOS 1A
5/14 Image
Sur l'axe Sud d'Avdiivka, 3 assauts: un à l'est, un qui fait demi tour (4 BMP 2 endommagés par des FPV) un qui avance et se fait détruire:

4 tanks
9 BMP 1-2
3 MTLB

+ 2 T64 Ukrainiens, les seules pertes de blindé pour l'Ukraine.
6/14 Image
Au Sud d'Avdiivka, on ne compte qu'un seul MTLB, j'ai quand même partagé la zone parce qu'elle montre la seule avancée Russe depuis le début de l'offensive dans cette zone ultra fortifiée).
7/14 Image
Maintenant, nous allons regarder ensemble l'endroit ou il y a eu le plus de pertes Russes pour le moment (67), le village de Krasnohorivka.

Evidemment je vais essayer d'être plus juste que cette carte qui montre de nombreuses anciennes pertes.

⬇️
8/14 Image
1- L'attaque de la mine: (23 pertes, la plupart des véhicules détruits)

12 BMP 1-2
1 BTR 50/1 BTR
4 URAL
1 TIGR M
1 MTLB
4 TANK
9/14 Image
1* l'avancée maximale
2* sur la route
3* Un peu plus loin
10/14

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Enfin le lieu du massacre d'hier principalement:

Vision générale
11/14 Image
4 endroits différents, mais tous dans le même champs:

16 BTR 82A/80
15 BMP 1-2
7 Tank
1 MRAP
1 UR 77
2 MTLB
12/14


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Pour le moment, l'assaut Russe a Avdiivka est un terrible échec, on remarque 2 progressions qui ne se situent pas encore dans des zones réellement stratégiques.
Progression en vert🟢
13/14 Image
Pour réaliser ce thread avec le maximum de pertes prouvées, j'ai utilisé les données de @lost_warinua comme aide (j'ai découvert leur excellente carte).

J'ai également utilisé les dizaines de vidéos des derniers jours, qui permettent de montrer l'ampleur des pertes Russes.
14/14

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More from @clement_molin

Jan 21
The Dnipro campaign, from Davydiv Brid to Krinky 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺 -- PART 2 --

After the defeat in Mykolaiv, ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson

PART 2 : Analysis of Ukraine's counter-offensives, april-november 2022 and cross river operations

🧵THREAD🧵1/23 ⬇️
If you didn't read the first part, you can find it here, it is from february 24th 2022 to march 29th 2022.

After losing the Battle of Mykolaiv, Russian forces retreated behind new defensive lines along the border of Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces arriving from the Kyiv Front took considerably longer than the first Ukrainian brigades sent as reinforcements. These brigades brought reinforcements that pushed the Russians back behind the Inhulets River and established defensive lines in front of Mykolaiv.Image
Read 23 tweets
Jan 18
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 forces continue to prepare important obstacle lines everywhere on the frontlines.

In the Donbas, we now have multiple "New Donbas Lines", as well as tens barbed wire lines, In Zaporizhzhia, there is now more and more of those barbed wire. Every progress will be costly.

▪️East and South of Kramatorsk, we can count numerous small obstacle lines. West of the city, we can count 3 large lines (the third one is being expanded north), each cut every 10km by a parallel line (I can count around 4 right now), forming small 10/5km rectangles.
▪️In the south, the Novomykolaivka line is now continuous, it is 100km long. East of it, it seems too late to build new lines, but ukrainian forces started to prepare multiple barbed wire lines west of their current defense, the Haichur river.
▪️North of the two defensive lines built in 2024 (the big lines looking south), we can see the first preparations for a third reinforced line that will probably join the Novomykolaivka and the Vilniansk ones, offering a retreat line north of Orikhiv.
▪️In the Pavlohrad direction, a third line in front of Vassylivka is being prepared. The first one is the unfinished line in front of Pokrovsk'e which continues in front of Prossiana, the second is the nearly finished one, which is the longest continuous line Ukraine has (it goes from Ternuvate to Kramatorsk, that's the big one going behind the main cities) and this third line is being prepared south of Vassylivka and west of the second.
▪️Despite the snow, a lot of construction is ongoing everywhere in Ukraine and new lines are getting ready. Every week Russia is waiting means more time and men to get through those lines.Image
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Here those "kill rectangles", the new portion we've been waiting for to connect Veliky Burluk line with Karkhiv one, the multiple barbed wire in front of Prossiana and a map of all Ukraine. Image
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Here a simplified view, with in yellow the main lines and in white secondary lines. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 18
En #Syrie 🇸🇾, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes (dirigées par les Kurdes) se sont effondrées

Les milices arabes locales et l'armée syrienne sont entrées dans Raqqa et la région, avec une population syrienne en liesse.

Ce soir un cessez-le-feu est annoncé.

🧵THREAD🧵1/20⬇️Image
C'est presque un tiers du pays qui échappait encore au contrôle de Damas un an après la chute d'Assad.

Dans le nord-est syrien, les Forces Démocratiques Syriennes, dominées par les Kurdes (YPG/YPJ) contrôlaient un vaste territoire allant jusqu'à l'Euphrate et au delà. Image
Il faut dire que dans les 4 gouvernorats sous contrôle des FDS, tous sont à majorité arabe, en particulier ceux de Deir-Ez-Zor et Raqqa.

Les Kurdes, concentrés dans le corner du Nord-Est et à Kobané ne formaient qu'une minorité. Image
Read 20 tweets
Jan 16
The Dnipro campaign, from Kalanchak to Vosenssensk, 2022-2025 🇺🇦/🇷🇺

With this series of 42 historical maps, let's revisit one of the most unique military campaigns of the war in Ukraine 🇺🇦.

PART 1 : Analysis of Ukraine's southern front, february-march 2022

🧵THREAD🧵1/25 ⬇️
Feburary 23rd, 2022. More than 20 000 russian 🇷🇺 soldiers amass themselves on the border, facing around 500 ukrainian 🇺🇦 defenders.

Russian 58th, 49th and 22nd army are facing ~1 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized brigade (including 1 000 of whom are at the training ground of Oleshky sands).

This unit is the only one facing the russian invasion south of the Dnipro river. The closest reinforcements are in Mykolaiv (35th Marines), in Zaporizhia, Odessa or Mariupol (they are quite busy). A day before the invasion, 300 soldiers from the 58th motorized are repositioned to Henichesk and Chaplinka, to support the 137th Marine bataillon and border guards (200 soldiers in total).

Why so few men ? Because Ukraine thought Russia would attack in the Donbass, usually, 3 brigades should have been positionned in front of Crimea (the 93rd mechanized brigade was redeployed a week before to Kharkiv, and managed to save the city), only one was there and was not occupying border positions.Image
On the morning of the 24th, Russia launched massive air and missile strikes on ukrainian positions, radars, airport and air-defense.

The 58th motorized brigade moved from Oleshky sands to meet the russians while the 137th and border guards started fleeing to the bridges.

Russia strikes on to directions, with the 58th army attacking Henichesk and the 49th Kalanchak. Both armies were supported by numerous helicopters and planes.Image
Read 25 tweets
Jan 13
La Moldavie🇲🇩 entre danger à l'est face à la Transnistrie et perspectives de réunification avec la Roumanie 🇷🇴

De l'autre côté de la frontière, l'armée ukrainienne 🇺🇦 se tient prête face à la menace de l'état séparatiste et de ses soldats russes.

🧵THREAD🧵1/16 ⬇️Image
La question moldave est revenue dans l'actualité, comme très régulièrement depuis 4 ans, avec cette fois une déclaration choc de la président Maia Sandu, qui "voterait pour la réunification avec la Roumanie s'il y avait un référendum". Image
Si près de 85% de la population du pays se dit moldave ou roumaine (très similaires, histoire commune, les moldaves sont plus nombreux en roumanie), il y a environ 15% de minorités (ukrainiens, russes, gagaouzes, bulgares, allemands, roms...) et la réunification fait 50/50.
Read 16 tweets
Jan 11
Turkiye 🇹🇷, Chad 🇹🇩, UAE 🇦🇪, Kenya 🇰🇪, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦... who supports who in the Sudan war ?

The Sudan 🇸🇩 war opposing SAF and RSF is no longer a local war for power but rather a regional confrontation between multiple countries.

🧵THREAD🧵1/24 ⬇️Image
Disclaimer : mapping which country supports the RSF and FSR does not mean everything is correct. Russia and Ukraine are not allied, Ethiopia is closed to Turkiye and Saudi Arabia and multiple countries are barely involved or neutral so I kept them in white.

The borders you can see is not the recognized border map but the actual control lines. In black stands djihadist groups, in green SAF allies and in red RSF allies.

Feel free to give me informations on the countries that I mapped as "neutral".Image
Countries supporting the Sudanese Armed Forces :

The SAF was during a long time without serious allies, but the situation recently changed after they liberated the capital Kharoum.

Here, we'll see the main SAF allies and foreign proxies : Image
Read 24 tweets

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