Thread by @MarkUrban01

So far, Hezbollah, the shiite Lebanese military force, has limited its fighting with Israel, but the risks are rising. Some have speculated they will attack if Israel moves ground troops into Gaza, others that Israel itself might initiate it. Either way its very serious 1/

Israeli paper @maariv reported today that the IDF is stepping up preparations for a full scale fight with Hezbollah. And it's evident that they are on high alert in northern Israel 2/

https://twitter.com/MaarivOnline/status/1715728759033147498

Hezbollah:
- has a massive missile arsenal, threatening to overwhelm defences like Iron Dome
- it has quality too, long range precision strike weapons that could disable key national infrastructure
- it has thousands of troops battle hardened in Syria 3/ today.lorientlejour.com/article/135258…

Hezbollah is the key part of the wider network of groups armed and directed by Iran's Quds Force. Houthi militias in Yemen are another, and in a sign of worsening tensions on Thursday they tried a long range attack on Israel, thwarted by a US warship 4/

https://x.com/US5thFleet/status/1715607521010868573?s=20

Yet despite the risks of a multi-directional missile blitz, or of large scale Hezbollah assaults on its northern border, Israel's defence minister reportedly initially favoured launching a preemptive strike and the US has tried to dissuade Israel 5/

So why on earth would the Israeli defence min urge fighting on two fronts?
- the IDF is fully mobilised, v unusual moment
- v unusual also that US warships + 2 US Iron Dome systems can bolster defence
- intel may suggest Hezbollah will attack anyway, once IDF goes into Gaza
5/

While it's clear the US would help defend Israel from incoming missiles, and indeed that's exactly what the USS Carney did on Thursday in the Red Sea, it's far less clear they would join attacks on Hezbollah. Biden declined to give any such assurance 6/

https://x.com/Doranimated/status/1714972278297891108?s=20

Talking recently to people in the Israeli defence establishment, they believe the fact Hezbollah hasn't yet fully joined in proves that Iran is holding it back as the ultimate deterrent against any IDF/US attacks on its nuclear facilities 6/

So it follows that if Iran and Hezbollah unleash their full capabilities against Israel, sparking a regional war, it could see the destruction of some part of its deterrent. With that damaged, the calculus about hitting Iran's nuke plants could be v different 7/

It is precisely because of the dangers of war on this scale, that the US has urged Israel not to attack pre-emptively and Iran has proceeded with caution, signalling its resolve via an attack from Yemen rather than Lebanon. 8/END