🧵After looking at all the currently available data on the al-Ahli Arab Hospital explosion, I have made two discoveries.
#1: The "rocket" in this video is in fact a Tamir interceptor missile launched by Iron Dome and not directly related to the explosion.
#1: The "rocket" in this video is in fact a Tamir interceptor missile launched by Iron Dome and not directly related to the explosion.
#2 : Two of the videos thought to show the explosion at the hospital, which have been used in many analysis, do not show that blast, but another explosion in Gaza that happened approximately 20 seconds prior.
The first is the video from Netiv HaAsara.
The first is the video from Netiv HaAsara.
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714377828131553446
The second is the video posted by Channel 12 News. Both these videos show the same event, which took place just prior to the hospital explosion, but end before we see the explosion or launch of the Tamir interceptor from Iron Dome.
https://twitter.com/N12News/status/1714582806007865366
The video in the bottom right is taken from a camera in Bat Yam (32.020230, 34.739322).
It shows both the initial explosion immediately after the rocket barrage at timestamp: 18:59:22 followed by the launch of the Tamir interceptor at 18:59:24 and hospital explosion at 18:59:44.
It shows both the initial explosion immediately after the rocket barrage at timestamp: 18:59:22 followed by the launch of the Tamir interceptor at 18:59:24 and hospital explosion at 18:59:44.
This video (31.513966, 34.450015) shows both the launch bearing of the Tamir interceptor and fire from the explosion 20 seconds earlier during the first 4 seconds of the video.
https://twitter.com/EekadFacts/status/1714760145618514245
Using these two videos from different angles it is possible to geolocate the origin of the "rocket" seen blowing up in midair. This just so happens to coincide exactly with an Iron Dome launch site.
The Bat Yam video however shows that this Tamir interceptor detonates in midair is several kilometers away from the hospital, likely on the border with Gaza as it intercepts one of the many rockets fired 40 seconds earlier towards Sderot.
The Bat Yam video can also be used to prove that both the Channel 12 video and Netiv HaAsara videos in fact show the barrage that starts at 18:59:02.
This can be seen by the timing between the barrage and subsequent blast which matches in all 3 videos
This can be seen by the timing between the barrage and subsequent blast which matches in all 3 videos
https://twitter.com/manniefabian/status/1714384324710015459
Geolocating the first blast from the Channel 12 video, Netiv HaAsara and Hamdan videos puts the inital blast somewhere in this rough area.
This initial blast explains why in the original AJ livestream video, smoke is seen rising from behind the hospital prior to the explosion.
One has to wonder why both surveillance videos released reportedly showing the blast at the hospital were cut approximately 20 seconds prior to the blast and directly before the Iron Dome launch.
While I have not found anything pointing to the IDF being behind the explosion at the hospital, the media handling of this incident has been nothing short terrible.
It is hard to find the truth when both sides seem determined to hide it.
It is hard to find the truth when both sides seem determined to hide it.
While there does not yet appear to be any smoking gun showing what hits the hospital's parking lot, the damage is still most consistent with a failed rocket.
Another detail we can see from the Bat Yam video are two Israeli aircraft circling above Gaza that begin deploying flares as result of the initial rocket barrage.
Occam's Razor remains that a failed rocket from the barrage impacted the parking lot of the hospital.
The trajectory of the launch site of the large barrage would go right over the hospital if they were aimed at Sderot.
The trajectory of the launch site of the large barrage would go right over the hospital if they were aimed at Sderot.
This trajectory also matches the direction of the crater we see in the parking lot.
As can be seen in the video below, failed rockets tend to come down at a rather steep angle likely resulting in a "high-angle shell crater".
As can be seen in the video below, failed rockets tend to come down at a rather steep angle likely resulting in a "high-angle shell crater".
https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1715783681858826530
Though with the condition that if the rocket was tumbling and unstable as it likely was, the crater direction is not a super reliable way of determining much in regards to origin.
Using the Bat Yam and Hamdan videos, we can get an approximate location of where the airborne detonation happened.
It happened around the border between Gaza and Israel, where any rocket aimed at Kfar Aza and the surrounding area would be in their terminal phase.
It happened around the border between Gaza and Israel, where any rocket aimed at Kfar Aza and the surrounding area would be in their terminal phase.
The airborne detonation happened approx. 8 seconds prior to the hospital blast, approx. 4.3 km away. Given the altitude of the blast, the distance is closer to 5.5km.
If this were responsible for the blast, the remains would needed to have been travelling at approx 2500km/h.
If this were responsible for the blast, the remains would needed to have been travelling at approx 2500km/h.
While this is close to the maximum speed of a Tamir interceptor (Mach 2.2) it is unlikely that the remains of one after detonation would continue with anything near this speed.
The fact that we only see a single interception from Iron Dome after the large barrage can be explained by this radar diagram from the IDF.
The location of the single interception roughly matches the single rocket that flew towards Kfar Aza and Sa’ad
The location of the single interception roughly matches the single rocket that flew towards Kfar Aza and Sa’ad
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