Thread by @DYShor

We are two weeks since
the Hamassacare; so let’s assess the state of the Hamas war:

The 10/7 holocaust has united the Israeli public to extraordinary proportions.

It has effectively wiped away the political left in Israel — certainly as it relates to Hamas/Gaza.
#Israel #Iran

The Israeli public woke up on October 7th to a new reality.

The Hamas/Gaza threat has now been realized to be an existential threat.

Hamas has managed to capture more than 30sq miles of territory, and kill around 1800 while injuring more than 2,500.
#Gaza #HAMASsacre

The status quo is over.

Israelis are resolved that they must ‘eliminate’ the threat.

The cabinet approves a ground invasion of Gaza. The military is ready.

Yet, the orders aren’t being given just yet.

Why? There are multiple factors.

The first are the hostages.

Hamas cleverly and cruelly planned to take hostages. They didn’t do so because they respect life. They had no issue torturing and slaughtering in cold blood.

They did so for strategic purposes. They’d be leveraged for their interests.

The hostage issue obviously is a painful one for Israelis — especially their families.
But Hamas also took hostages who are foreign nationals, and that touches the interest of those nations as well.

We’ve already seen the first two hostages released, and reports indicate that the Israeli government was asked by the American government to delay the ground operation for these hostage negotiations to bear fruit.

Since then we’ve heard of more discussions taking place.

The hostages are being leveraged by Hamas to delay a ground operation.

The hostage negotiations are also being leveraged by Qatar, to “compensate” for its funding and harboring of Hamas.

None of this is “humanitarian”.
They’re inhumane terrorists preying on our humanity.

But there are other more major factors.

If you’ve been listening to Biden & Blinken, you’ll notice two things: 1) A big emphasis on protecting Gaza civilians & 2) Hardly any focus on Iran.

These two indicators are the other two major factors delaying the ground operation.

Hamas knows that Washington won’t tolerate many “civilian” casualties, and are therefore complicating their movement.

Washington is officially not opposing an Israeli ground op, but it’s setting rules that are totally unreasonable.
So effectively Israel is being hamstrung.

Important to note: The majority of Gaza civilians support Hamas. They all celebrate Jewish murder. Even in Palestinian Authority controlled areas, we’ve not seen any condemnation of the Hamassacare. Antisemitism and Hamas are very popular

Israel didn’t initiate this war.

Lastly, Iran.

Hezbollah is threatening to open another full front from the north, should Israel invade Gaza.

Hezbollah is far more dangerous to Israel than Hamas, and certainly doesn’t want that front to activate.

The Houthis have also gotten involved.

But israel cannot give up on a Gaza ground op. That threat remains existential.

Israel needs more American commitment for dealing the Hezbollah threat — but it has yet to receive the approvals/assurances it needs.

Washington says it wants to avoid a regional war. But Iran has already started one.

So Israel is now cornered in a very dangerous situation, and the support its getting is totally inadequate.

Qatar being praised instead of condemned, is rewarding terrible behavior, and is also sending a message to the more moderate states in the region that being moderate isn’t necessarily better.

Washington must wake up because its interest are at play as well.

The Israeli government is being patient, but it too won’t be able to wait forever, and the longer we wait, the more emboldened Iran is becoming — increasing the risk for an even larger conflagration. End.

“If America doesn’t get tough with Iran and Qatar, Hamas will survive, and Iran will emerge more dangerous and emboldened than ever. And that will further eviscerate American deterrence — not just in the Middle East but around the globe.” - @rich_goldberg nypost.com/2023/10/20/bid…