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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Oct 22, 2023 • 60 tweets • 17 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
Canadian COVID Forecast: Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Ha...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

EXTRÊME: CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK
GRAVE: aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ: aucun
ÉLEVÉ: aucun
MODÉRÉ: aucun
FAIBLE: aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 19 au Canada est actuellement infectée
Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects. #MasksKeepUsSafe.

Graphic is courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 inset frames. Top frame: Caption surrounding image on yellow background: Covid Can Take Your Breath. Silhouetted, person, bent over, coughing, surrounded by purple shaded circles with text: Chest Pain, Cough, Blood Clots, Short Breath, Wheeze. Message: Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects. bircovidhealth. #MasksKeepUsSafe. BIRCH birchproject.com Illus. by @haziethompson. Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. Image, below, left, is a gender-neutral Superhero wearing an N95 face mask and ca...
@BIRcovidhealth THREAD OUTLINE:

- Links to data sources, resources

- What’s new this week?

-Current COVID Forecasts by province
@BIRcovidhealth PLAN DU FIL:

- Liens vers des sources de données et des ressources

- Quoi de neuf cette semaine ?
@BIRcovidhealth -Prévisions actuelles du COVID par province

Information about methods, forecast inputs, estimated infections, long COVID cases, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths is available in our biweekly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Des infos sur les méthodes, prévisions, infections estimées, cas de COVID à long terme, admissions dans les hôpitaux et soins intensifs et décès sont disponibles dans notre rapport bihebdomadaire ici:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Information about excess mortality in every Canadian province is available in our monthly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
@BIRcovidhealth Des informations sur la surmortalité dans chaque province canadienne sont disponibles dans notre rapport mensuel en cliquant ici :

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
@BIRcovidhealth Do you have questions about:

-this week’s forecast
-COVID
-vaccines
-masks
-risks of specific activities

We can help!

You can join one of our free evening Zoom sessions by signing up at the link here:

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
@BIRcovidhealth Vous avez des questions?

-les prévisions
-COVID
-les vaccins
-les masques
-les risques liés à certaines activités

Nous pouvons vous aider!

Vous pouvez participer à l'une de nos sessions Zoom gratuites en vous inscrivant ici:

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
@BIRcovidhealth Do you want to see how the forecast is changing as new data come in?

You can go to the Forecast Inputs page of the report (p11). Most pages of the report are live. We enter data on Wed, Fri and Sat each week.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Vous souhaitez voir comment la prévision évolue de l'arrivée de nouvelles données?

Vous pouvez consulter la page "Forecast Inputs" du rapport (p11). La plupart des pages du rapport sont en direct.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth WHAT’S NEW THIS WEEK?

About 1 in 19 people in Canada are currently infected.

Estimated infections are at/nearing peak of all previous Omicron waves except Dec/21 wave.

5-week averages for waste water for all Canadian sites from @GovCanHealth are increasing 27%/week. Graph showing Canada's estimated daily infections since Dec 2021: Model vs Waste water vs Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence (5 week mid-aligned rolling averages Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 12 (Waste water vs Model-estimated infections: CAN, NL, PEI, NS)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth We think mortality in Canada from this wave may reach the height of deaths from all previous COVID-19 waves in the pandemic to date, unless those at greatest risk of death from COVID-19 get their boosters ASAP. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth Forecast scores before Aug/23 under-predicted mortality.

From @CIHI_ICIS released Sep/23 we know under-reporting of hospital and ICU admissions is greater than we estimated.

Scores from Aug/23 onward are corrected to reflect current under-reporting rates. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS Due to inconsistent provincial reporting, this week we switched to hospital, ICU and death data from @GovCanHealth and @INSPQ, corrected for under-reporting.

Forecast scores reflect regional differences in population size, waste water and estimated infections. Weekly PHAC report on hospital use: Image contains a graph labelled "Figure 5. Daily number of hospital beds and ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients as of October 17, 2023 Graph available at: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ From @CIHI_ICIS we know 35% of hospital and 83% of ICU admissions for Jan-Mar/23 were NOT reported to @GovCanHealth.

Current numbers are likely one third higher than @GovCanHealth report.

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/curre…
Weekly PHAC report on hospital use: Image contains a graph labelled "Figure 5. Daily number of hospital beds and ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients as of October 17, 2023 Graph available at: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ You may also notice scores of 25 for multiple indicators and provinces. This is because we set a max of 25 to stabilize the global (overall) score.

The overall score reflects the % excess mortality we think will result from infections…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ In Canada, we have not typically seen excess mortality peaks greater than 25-30% during Omicron.

When we get the next excess mortality report from @statcan_eng in mid-Nov we will revisit whether to set the max higher than 25.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Environ 1 personne sur 19 est actuellement infectée au Canada.

Les infections estimées atteignent ou approchent le pic de toutes les vagues Omicron précédentes, à l'exception de la vague du déc/21.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les moyennes sur 5 semaines pour les eaux usées de tous les sites canadiens de @GovCanHealth augmentent de 27%/semaine.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Nous pensons que la mortalité due à cette vague pourrait atteindre le niveau des décès de toutes les vagues précédentes, à moins que les personnes les plus au risque de décès dû à COVID-19 ne reçoivent leurs vaccins de rappel dès que possible.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les résultats des prévisions avant le août/23 sous-estimaient la mortalité.

D'après @CIHI_ICIS données publiées le sep/23, nous savons que la sous-déclaration des admissions…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng …dans les hôpitaux et les unités de soins intensifs est plus importante que nous ne l'avions estimé.

Les scores à partir du 23 août sont corrigés pour refléter les taux actuels de sous-déclaration.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng En raison de l'incohérence des rapports provinciaux, cette semaine nous avons utilisé les données sur les hôpitaux, les unités de soins intensifs et les décès provenant de @GovCanHealth et @INSPQ, corrigées pour tenir compte de la sous-déclaration.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les résultats des prévisions reflètent les différences régionales dans la taille de la population, les eaux usées et les infections estimées.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Grâce à @CIHI_ICIS, nous savons que 35 % des admissions à l'hôpital et 83 % des admissions en USI pour janvier-mars-23 n'ont PAS été déclarées à @GovCanHealth.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les chiffres actuels sont probablement un tiers plus élevés que ceux rapportés par @GovCanHealth.

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/curre…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Vous pouvez également remarquer des scores de 25 pour plusieurs indicateurs et provinces. Cela s'explique par le fait que nous avons fixé un maximum de 25 pour stabiliser le score global.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Le score global reflète le pourcentage de surmortalité que nous pensons résulter des infections.

Au Canada, nous n'avons pas observé de pics de surmortalité supérieurs à 25-30 % pendant Omicron.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Lorsque nous recevrons le prochain rapport de surmortalité de @statcan_eng à la mi-novembre, nous réexaminerons la possibilité de fixer le maximum à plus de 25.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

CANADA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 19 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~24X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 21.2 About 1 of every 19 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,380,000-1,905,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.6X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type ma...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct-3 nov, 2023

CANADA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 19 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~25X supérieur
-COVID longue ~16X supérieur
-Hospitalisations ~15X supérieur
-Décès ~24X supérieur Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 21 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~14X higher
-Hospitalizations ~13X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.2 About 1 of every 21 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 15,600-21,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.3X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 14.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 13.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 21 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~14X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~13X🔺
-Décès ~23X 🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 17 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~17X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.7 About 1 of every 17 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 6,400-8,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 17.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 24.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-t...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ÎLE DU PRINCE ÉDOUARD

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 17 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~17X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 15 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 of every 15 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 43,500-60,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type mask...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 15 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 10 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~25X higher
-Hospitalizations ~19X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.8 About 1 of every 10 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 54,100-74,700 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 10 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~25X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~19X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

QUÉBEC

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 18 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~24X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.3 About 1 of every 18 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 302,000-417,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 11.6X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 24.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks ...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

QUÉBEC

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 18 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~16X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~24X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

ONTARIO

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 23 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~13X higher
-Hospitalizations ~11X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 16.2 About 1 of every 23 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 407,700-563,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.5X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 12.8X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 10.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 20.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ONTARIO

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 23 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~13X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~11X🔺
-Décès ~20X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

MANITOBA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 16 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 of every 16 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 55,700-77,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks ...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

MANITOBA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 16 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 16 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.8 About 1 of every 16 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 50,100-69,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type ma...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 16 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

ALBERTA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 15 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~17X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.3 About 1 of every 15 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 200,000-275,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 20.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ALBERTA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 15 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~20X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~17X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 14 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 in every 14 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 240,300-331,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 20.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-ty...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

COLOMBIE BRITANNIQUE

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 14 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~20X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 20 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.0 About 1 of every 20 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 4,300-6,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 22.6X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NUNAVUT, TNO, YUKON

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 20 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~22X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.

The next forecast will be November 4, 2023.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng N'oubliez pas que les prévisions reflètent non seulement les données récentes, mais aussi les chiffres attendus pour les deux semaines à venir, sur la base des tendances moyennes sur cinq semaines.

La prochaine prévision sera disponible le 4 novembre 2023.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise for data input, graphics and translation.

Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan
Merci à @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise pour la saisie des données, les graphiques et la traduction.

Merci à toute l'équipe de @covid_19_canada pour les commentaires hebdomadaires et pour la poursuite de notre travail.

#EnsembleNousPouvons

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Dec 6
The Data Card, “Family Holiday Dinner - Before”, shows how wise it is for everyone to mask while visiting inside.

We looked at a group of 10 people, you’re one of them, gathering for a 3 hour visit. People are chatting, but it’s mostly a quiet group enjoying each other’s company.

The scenario uses an average size dining room, 16 x 32. The airflow is well mixed among this and the other rooms and the outside doors are closed.

What can you do?We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
What can you do? Open the windows.

What can you do?

You can make your event even more safe by providing rapid tests beforehand and N95 masks as people arrive. This lets everyone know that you care about their health.

What else can you do?

Set up an Outside Food Zone. ™

If the weather is, ahem, wintery, and you have the resources, get a fire pit going.

Explore other ways to warm the space, maybe candles, those amazing patio heaters, or a tether ball to kick to warm everyone up. Don’t forget to provide gloves and blankets too.

Create an inviting space for people to bring their food out, unmask, safely eat at a distance from the crowd. When they’re ready they can join the folks inside again knowing that they are helping to keep everyone safe.

The “Family Holiday Dinner - Before” Card shows the maximum risk people that take on. We’re using the safest estimate for one-off events that often have visitors from away, may include a super spreader, and carry higher potential risks.
Your most vulnerable people will want to use these estimates since, for us, it’s best to assess risk by assuming the worst. We don't have our alt text for tables yet but we're working on it.
Read 8 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300

About 1 in every 43 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~27X higher
-Long COVID ~28X higher
-Hospitalizations ~29X higher
-Deaths ~26X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (increasing)

Estimated infections this week: 10,600-11,300

About 1 in every 64 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~17X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~20X higher
-Deaths ~15X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 17.5 About 1 of every 64 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 10,600 - 11,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 20.4X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines e...
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

CANADA

GRAVE (stable)

Infections pendant cette période : 1 190 200-1 266 300

Environ 1 personne sur 43 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~27X 🔺
-COVID longue ~28X 🔺
-Hospitalisations ~29X 🔺
-Décès ~26X 🔺This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 23-Dec 06, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 27.3 About 1 of every 43 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,190,200-1,266,300 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 27.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 27.6X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 28.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.9X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEA...
The english version of our regional forecast can be found here:

Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : NOV 23-DÉC 6, 2024

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

GRAVE (en hausse)

Infections pendant cette période : 10 600-11 300

Environ 1 personne sur 64 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~17X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~20X🔺
-Décès ~15X🔺Image
Read 17 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 26
Canadian COVID Forecast: Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
MODERATE: none

About 1 in 43 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Nov 23-Dec 6, 2024 COVID Forecast scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 27.3 - SEVERE Alberta: 30.0 - SEVERE British Columbia: 16.1- SEVERE Manitoba: 30.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 28.4 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 17.5 -SEVERE North: 25.9 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 30.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 27.4 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 26.2 - SEVERE Quebec: 27.9 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 30.0 - SEVERE All COVID Forecast input data and sources are available here: (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) F...
Notre aperçu national en français :

WHAT'S NEW THIS WEEK?

The Forecast score for Canada is increasing 2%/week (-5% to +8%/week for all regions).

About 1 in 43 people are currently infected (~175,000 infections/day).

A new surge/wave has started, later than usual for this time of year in many provinces. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 14 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
Read 13 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 17
Parking lot Visits in Your Cars
-FYI- This thread is also available on the C-19 website, starting on page 8, for easier reading. Risk Scenario Estimator Based on Canadian Forecast lookerstudio.google.com/embed/u/0/repo…

One of our volunteers wanted to know the risks of meeting their friends in a parking lot, with their cars side by side. How much risk happens in the air transfer between cars? What a great question!

The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: 2 cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if i...
The answer is – not much!

This scenario used the Average Canadian High Risk family this time, since they are more inclined to need and want to take extra precautions while still socializing.

OK, what’s a “car visit”?
Imagine two parked cars:
* Facing opposite directions
* Cars about 1.5 to 2 metres apart
* Driver windows opposite each other
* It it’s cold, heater may be on
We roll down the drivers’ windows and visit!

This is quite safe, as shown in the data cards.
Enjoy a very low risk way to share each other’s company.A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada with inset frame. Title: Parking lot Visit in Your Cars Text in light blue coloured box, subtitle: Is it safe to visit between cars? Yes! Text: Rendezvous together to visit with friends, chat in your cars. Image: two cars next to Parking sign, red car facing right, blue car facing left. Speech bubbles float above cars. Image credit: created by vectorportal.com Footnote: *Data source: covid19resources.ca and Risk Scenario Estimator. Text in light blue coloured box: Activity Risks Two people in each car, windows down, heat on in cars if ...
We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
For curiosity and data diving, by comparison, what if all 4 people were in one car?

That’s the second data card. Lots of red and big numbers of risk.

The Good air numbers are with windows open and those numbers are scary high for all but those wearing the best mask. Poor air estimates are with the windows closed.

Because the car is not moving, even with all the windows open there is very little air exchange.

Sitting in a parked car with several other people for any real length of time is Not a good idea!We don’t have alt text for our tables yet but we’re working on it.
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Nov 11
Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

CANADA

SEVERE (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000

About 1 in every 31 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~23X higher
-Long COVID ~23X higher
-Hospitalizations ~27X higher
-Deaths ~23X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 24.1 About 1 of every 31 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 837,200-1,830,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 22.8X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 23.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 26.8X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines every 6 months WEAR N95-t...
Prévisions régionales sur la COVID-19 se trouvent ici :

Canadian COVID Forecast Nov 9-22, 2024

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

VERY HIGH (no change)

Estimated infections this week: 7,200-15,800

About 1 in every 48 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~13X higher
-Long COVID ~15X higher
-Hospitalizations ~14X higher
-Deaths ~14X higherThis image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Nov 9-22, 2024 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is VERY HIGH (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 13.3 About 1 of every 48 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 7,200 - 15,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 12.6X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 15.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: VERY HIGH; 13.5X higher Deaths: VERY HIGH; 14.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines...
Read 16 tweets

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