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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
@MoriartyLab
Oct 22 • 60 tweets • 17 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Scrolly
Canadian COVID Forecast: Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, AB, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: none
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 19 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 21.2 - SEVERE Alberta: 22.3 - SEVERE British Columbia: 22.0 - SEVERE Manitoba: 22.0 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 22.8 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 18.2 - SEVERE North: 19.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 22.0 - SEVERE Ontario: 16.2 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 20.7 - SEVERE Quebec: 20.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 20.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) Ha...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

EXTRÊME: CAN, AB, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, ÎPÉ, QC, SK
GRAVE: aucun
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ: aucun
ÉLEVÉ: aucun
MODÉRÉ: aucun
FAIBLE: aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 19 au Canada est actuellement infectée
Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects. #MasksKeepUsSafe.

Graphic is courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has 3 inset frames. Top frame: Caption surrounding image on yellow background: Covid Can Take Your Breath. Silhouetted, person, bent over, coughing, surrounded by purple shaded circles with text: Chest Pain, Cough, Blood Clots, Short Breath, Wheeze. Message: Studies show even Mild Covid can have long term effects. bircovidhealth. #MasksKeepUsSafe. BIRCH birchproject.com Illus. by @haziethompson. Graphic courtesy of BIRCH, @BIRcovidhealth, used with permission. Image, below, left, is a gender-neutral Superhero wearing an N95 face mask and ca...
@BIRcovidhealth THREAD OUTLINE:

- Links to data sources, resources

- What’s new this week?

-Current COVID Forecasts by province
@BIRcovidhealth PLAN DU FIL:

- Liens vers des sources de données et des ressources

- Quoi de neuf cette semaine ?
@BIRcovidhealth -Prévisions actuelles du COVID par province

Information about methods, forecast inputs, estimated infections, long COVID cases, hospital and ICU admissions and deaths is available in our biweekly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Des infos sur les méthodes, prévisions, infections estimées, cas de COVID à long terme, admissions dans les hôpitaux et soins intensifs et décès sont disponibles dans notre rapport bihebdomadaire ici:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Information about excess mortality in every Canadian province is available in our monthly report at link here:

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
@BIRcovidhealth Des informations sur la surmortalité dans chaque province canadienne sont disponibles dans notre rapport mensuel en cliquant ici :

covid19resources.ca/public/excess-…
@BIRcovidhealth Do you have questions about:

-this week’s forecast
-COVID
-vaccines
-masks
-risks of specific activities

We can help!

You can join one of our free evening Zoom sessions by signing up at the link here:

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
@BIRcovidhealth Vous avez des questions?

-les prévisions
-COVID
-les vaccins
-les masques
-les risques liés à certaines activités

Nous pouvons vous aider!

Vous pouvez participer à l'une de nos sessions Zoom gratuites en vous inscrivant ici:

covid19resources.ca/discussions/
@BIRcovidhealth Do you want to see how the forecast is changing as new data come in?

You can go to the Forecast Inputs page of the report (p11). Most pages of the report are live. We enter data on Wed, Fri and Sat each week.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth Vous souhaitez voir comment la prévision évolue de l'arrivée de nouvelles données?

Vous pouvez consulter la page "Forecast Inputs" du rapport (p11). La plupart des pages du rapport sont en direct.

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
@BIRcovidhealth WHAT’S NEW THIS WEEK?

About 1 in 19 people in Canada are currently infected.

Estimated infections are at/nearing peak of all previous Omicron waves except Dec/21 wave.

5-week averages for waste water for all Canadian sites from @GovCanHealth are increasing 27%/week. Graph showing Canada's estimated daily infections since Dec 2021: Model vs Waste water vs Seroreversion-adjusted seroprevalence (5 week mid-aligned rolling averages Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 12 (Waste water vs Model-estimated infections: CAN, NL, PEI, NS)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth We think mortality in Canada from this wave may reach the height of deaths from all previous COVID-19 waves in the pandemic to date, unless those at greatest risk of death from COVID-19 get their boosters ASAP. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth Forecast scores before Aug/23 under-predicted mortality.

From @CIHI_ICIS released Sep/23 we know under-reporting of hospital and ICU admissions is greater than we estimated.

Scores from Aug/23 onward are corrected to reflect current under-reporting rates. Graph showing the reported % excess mortality compared to excess mortality predicted from waste water, our model, and the Canadian COVID Forecast score Fast-reporting provinces (NL, QC, AB, BC) Graph available at: https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index Page 13 (Actual and model-predicted excess mortality)
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS Due to inconsistent provincial reporting, this week we switched to hospital, ICU and death data from @GovCanHealth and @INSPQ, corrected for under-reporting.

Forecast scores reflect regional differences in population size, waste water and estimated infections. Weekly PHAC report on hospital use: Image contains a graph labelled "Figure 5. Daily number of hospital beds and ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients as of October 17, 2023 Graph available at: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ From @CIHI_ICIS we know 35% of hospital and 83% of ICU admissions for Jan-Mar/23 were NOT reported to @GovCanHealth.

Current numbers are likely one third higher than @GovCanHealth report.

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/curre…
Weekly PHAC report on hospital use: Image contains a graph labelled "Figure 5. Daily number of hospital beds and ICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients as of October 17, 2023 Graph available at: https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/current-situation.html
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ You may also notice scores of 25 for multiple indicators and provinces. This is because we set a max of 25 to stabilize the global (overall) score.

The overall score reflects the % excess mortality we think will result from infections…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ In Canada, we have not typically seen excess mortality peaks greater than 25-30% during Omicron.

When we get the next excess mortality report from @statcan_eng in mid-Nov we will revisit whether to set the max higher than 25.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Environ 1 personne sur 19 est actuellement infectée au Canada.

Les infections estimées atteignent ou approchent le pic de toutes les vagues Omicron précédentes, à l'exception de la vague du déc/21.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les moyennes sur 5 semaines pour les eaux usées de tous les sites canadiens de @GovCanHealth augmentent de 27%/semaine.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Nous pensons que la mortalité due à cette vague pourrait atteindre le niveau des décès de toutes les vagues précédentes, à moins que les personnes les plus au risque de décès dû à COVID-19 ne reçoivent leurs vaccins de rappel dès que possible.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les résultats des prévisions avant le août/23 sous-estimaient la mortalité.

D'après @CIHI_ICIS données publiées le sep/23, nous savons que la sous-déclaration des admissions…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng …dans les hôpitaux et les unités de soins intensifs est plus importante que nous ne l'avions estimé.

Les scores à partir du 23 août sont corrigés pour refléter les taux actuels de sous-déclaration.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng En raison de l'incohérence des rapports provinciaux, cette semaine nous avons utilisé les données sur les hôpitaux, les unités de soins intensifs et les décès provenant de @GovCanHealth et @INSPQ, corrigées pour tenir compte de la sous-déclaration.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les résultats des prévisions reflètent les différences régionales dans la taille de la population, les eaux usées et les infections estimées.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Grâce à @CIHI_ICIS, nous savons que 35 % des admissions à l'hôpital et 83 % des admissions en USI pour janvier-mars-23 n'ont PAS été déclarées à @GovCanHealth.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Les chiffres actuels sont probablement un tiers plus élevés que ceux rapportés par @GovCanHealth.

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/curre…
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Vous pouvez également remarquer des scores de 25 pour plusieurs indicateurs et provinces. Cela s'explique par le fait que nous avons fixé un maximum de 25 pour stabiliser le score global.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Le score global reflète le pourcentage de surmortalité que nous pensons résulter des infections.

Au Canada, nous n'avons pas observé de pics de surmortalité supérieurs à 25-30 % pendant Omicron.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Lorsque nous recevrons le prochain rapport de surmortalité de @statcan_eng à la mi-novembre, nous réexaminerons la possibilité de fixer le maximum à plus de 25.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

CANADA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 19 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~15X higher
-Deaths ~24X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Canada’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 21.2 About 1 of every 19 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 1,380,000-1,905,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 16.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.6X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type ma...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct-3 nov, 2023

CANADA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 19 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~25X supérieur
-COVID longue ~16X supérieur
-Hospitalisations ~15X supérieur
-Décès ~24X supérieur Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 21 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~14X higher
-Hospitalizations ~13X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 18.2 About 1 of every 21 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 15,600-21,600 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.3X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 14.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 13.1X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 23.1X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

TERRE-NEUVE ET LABRADOR

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 21 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~14X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~13X🔺
-Décès ~23X 🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 17 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~17X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Prince Edward Island's COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.7 About 1 of every 17 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 6,400-8,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 17.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.2X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 24.8X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-t...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ÎLE DU PRINCE ÉDOUARD

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 17 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada:

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~17X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NOVA SCOTIA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 15 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nova Scotia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 of every 15 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 43,500-60,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.0X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type mask...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NOUVELLE-ÉCOSSE

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 15 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NEW BRUNSWICK

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 10 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~25X higher
-Hospitalizations ~19X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. New Brunswick’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.8 About 1 of every 10 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 54,100-74,700 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: VERY HIGH; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 18.5X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NOUVEAU BRUNSWICK

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 10 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~25X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~19X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

QUÉBEC

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 18 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~16X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~24X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Quebec’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.3 About 1 of every 18 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 302,000-417,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 11.6X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 24.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks ...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

QUÉBEC

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 18 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~16X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~24X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

ONTARIO

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 23 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~13X higher
-Hospitalizations ~11X higher
-Deaths ~20X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Ontario’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 16.2 About 1 of every 23 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 407,700-563,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 17.5X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 12.8X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 10.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 20.3X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ONTARIO

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 23 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~13X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~11X🔺
-Décès ~20X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

MANITOBA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 16 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Manitoba’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 of every 16 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 55,700-77,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 18.7X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks ...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

MANITOBA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 16 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 16 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~12X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Saskatchewan’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 20.8 About 1 of every 16 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 50,100-69,200 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.1X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 12.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type ma...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

SASKATCHEWAN

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 16 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~12X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

ALBERTA

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 15 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~17X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Alberta’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.3 About 1 of every 15 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 200,000-275,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 20.2X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-type masks...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

ALBERTA

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 15 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~20X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~17X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

BRITISH COLUMBIA

SEVERE (no change)

About 1 in every 14 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~25X higher
-Long COVID ~20X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~25X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. British Columbia’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (no change) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 22.0 About 1 in every 14 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 240,300-331,800 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 25.0X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 20.3X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 15.9X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 25.0X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-ty...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

COLOMBIE BRITANNIQUE

EXTRÊME (stable)

Environ 1 personne sur 14 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~25X🔺
-COVID longue ~20X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~25X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Canadian COVID Forecast Oct 21-Nov 3, 2023

NUNAVUT, NWT, YUKON

SEVERE (increasing)

About 1 in every 20 people infected

Compared to lowest point of pandemic in Canada:

-Infections ~18X higher
-Long COVID ~19X higher
-Hospitalizations ~16X higher
-Deaths ~23X higher This image describes the Canadian COVID Forecast for Oct 21 - Nov 3, 2023 by COVID-19 Resources Canada. Nunavut, NWT, & Yukon’s COVID Forecast outlook is SEVERE (increasing) with a COVID INDEX SCORE of 19.0 About 1 of every 20 people is infected. Estimated infections this week: 4,300-6,000 How much higher are key indicators compared to the lowest point in the COVID pandemic in Canada? Waste water, infections: SEVERE; 18.1X higher Long COVID estimate: SEVERE; 19.4X higher Hospitalizations, ICU: SEVERE; 16.4X higher Deaths: SEVERE; 22.6X higher HOW TO HELP: EVERYONE: UPDATE vaccines WEAR N95-...
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Prévisions de COVID: 21 oct - 3 nov, 2023

NUNAVUT, TNO, YUKON

EXTRÊME (en hausse)

Environ 1 personne sur 20 est infectée

Par rapport au point le plus bas de la pandémie au Canada :

-Infections ~18X🔺
-COVID longue ~19X🔺
-Hospitalisations ~16X🔺
-Décès ~22X🔺 Image
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Remember, the forecast reflects not only recent input data, but also numbers expected for the next 2 weeks, based on 5-week average trends.

The next forecast will be November 4, 2023.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng N'oubliez pas que les prévisions reflètent non seulement les données récentes, mais aussi les chiffres attendus pour les deux semaines à venir, sur la base des tendances moyennes sur cinq semaines.

La prochaine prévision sera disponible le 4 novembre 2023.
@BIRcovidhealth @GovCanHealth @CIHI_ICIS @INSPQ @StatCan_eng Thanks to @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise for data input, graphics and translation.

Thanks to the whole @covid_19_canada team for weekly feedback and for keeping all our work going. #TogetherWeCan
Merci à @netgaines @CircaLiz @BattlingBeaver @lamarche_denise pour la saisie des données, les graphiques et la traduction.

Merci à toute l'équipe de @covid_19_canada pour les commentaires hebdomadaires et pour la poursuite de notre travail.

#EnsembleNousPouvons

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Oct 21
We just finished model updates for this week's COVID Forecast.

By waste water or our model, daily infections in Canada are now as high/higher than prior Omicron peaks except Dec/21 wave.

High risk people need shots ASAP, wear N95 masks, avoid non-essential indoor activities. Image
We'll publish the forecast on Sunday.

It's URGENT that you let others know and ESPECIALLY help people who are high risk/pregnant/65+ to get their shots ASAP, preferably in an outdoor setting.

Make sure people know to wear masks--good, N95-type masks.
You should postpone non-essential gatherings indoors, or move them outdoors, ESPECIALLY if higher risk people would be attending.

Healthcare, work, school are essential, but if you can, really limit any time indoors you can if it's not essential.
Read 5 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Oct 19
I'm trying a couple of new ways to try to contextualize current COVID numbers to help people understand the scale of the current problem.

I'll post these tests in this thread.

Please provide feedback...

P.S. these are real estimates for the week ending Oct 14/23
Estimated numbers of healthcare professionals with COVID-19, week ending Oct 14/23:

CAN 60,477
NL 1,016
PEI 298
NS 1,966
NB 1,481
QC 14,013
ON 21,977
MB 2,329
SK 1,986
AB 7,697
BC 7,430
YK, NWT, NUN 141

This is professionals only--not PSWs, non-professional workforce.
The week ending Oct 14/23:

About 9% of ICU beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients (average epidemic to date: 12%)

About 21% of hospital beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients (average epidemic to date: 7%)
Read 6 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Oct 16
Canadian COVID Forecast : Oct 7-20, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, BC, MB, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, QC, SK
VERY HIGH: AB, PEI
HIGH: none
ELEVATED: none
MODERATE: none
LOW: none

About 1 in 25 people in Canada are CURRENTLY infected. This image shows a series of gauges with the Oct 7 - Oct 20, 2023 Hazard Index scores for Canada, the provinces, and territories. Read from left to right: Canada: 12.5 - SEVERE Alberta: 7.9 - VERY HIGH British Columbia: 13.3 - SEVERE Manitoba: 11.7 - SEVERE New Brunswick: 10.0 - SEVERE Newfoundland and Labrador: 11.5 - SEVERE North: 11.0 - SEVERE Nova Scotia: 18.4 - SEVERE Ontario: 9.0 - SEVERE Prince Edward Island: 6.4 - VERY HIGH Quebec: 13.3 - SEVERE Saskatchewan: 10.8 - SEVERE All Hazard Index input data and sources are available here (https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/) ...
Prévisions de COVID pour le Canada : 7 - 20 oct 2023

EXTRÊME: CAN, CB, MB, NB, TNL, Nord, NÉ, ON, QC, SK
GRAVE: AB, ÎPÉ
TRÈS ÉLEVÉ: aucun
ÉLEVÉ: aucun
MODÉRÉ: aucun
FAIBLE: aucun

Environ 1 personne sur 25 au Canada est actuellement infectée
Canadian healthcare settings, when will you follow WHO 2023 masking guidance?

#MasksKeepUsSafe

who.int/news-room/ques…
A blue-bordered image by Covid-19 Resources Canada has an inset frame. Heading, in red text: Canadian healthcare settings, when will you follow WHO 2023 masking guidance? a cluster of viruses next to the text. Smaller blue text: When COVID-19 is circulating, WHO recommends: -Well-fitting masks worn at all times -By health workers and visitors -In ALL parts of healthcare settings, including common areas -Masks should be worn In Addition to physical distancing each bullet is a small red virus. Below the guidelines is the line: WHO Guidance Jan 13, 2023 with link to the guidelines. A masked...
Read 48 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Sep 28
Let's talk about equity...

From the US Long COVID Pulse survey Aug 23-Sep 4/23

1.4% of US adult pop is CURRENTLY experiencing LC that significantly limits life activities--4.6M people.

Ppl w/ disabilities 7.8X more likely to have activ-limiting LC than those w/out disabilities
People who identify as LGBTQ2S+ are 1.5X more likely to be living with LC that significantly limits daily life activities than straight/cis people.

People with less than a Bachelor's degree are 1.3X more likely to be living with activ-limiting LC than people with a Bachelor's.
1.7X more women are living with LC that significantly limits daily life activities than men.

People 30-59 are ~1.6X more likely to be living with life activ-limiting LC than people in other age groups.

cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/p…
Read 4 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Sep 25
Canadian COVID Forecast
Sep 23-Oct 6, 2023

SEVERE: CAN, BC, NB, NL, North, NS, ON, PEI, QC, SK

About 1 in 29 people are currently infected Image
I'm travelling today and don't have time to do a long thread.

As always, you can find all the province-specific forecasts and other data in our biweekly Canadian COVID report here:

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
There is still some disconnect between waste water-estimated infections and infections estimated from our model. Our estimates of the number of people currently infected average both estimates. Image
Read 16 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
Sep 16
We've added new pages to our biweekly Canadian COVID data report and forecast.

These are focused on measuring reporting of severe outcomes (hospital and ICU admissions, deaths) in each province.

I'll do a quick TL;DR here--more details are in the report. Image
Report here:

This is a first draft of a non-scientist-oriented summary of data we're writing up.

Please let me know what types of info/clarification etc you'd like to see. It may not be possible to include all in the report, but it can go in the paper!

covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-i…
Percent actual hospital admissions reported by @CIHI_ICIS that were reported publicly by provinces, Jan 1/20 to Mar 31/23

CAN 69%
NL 29%
PEI 36%
NB 38%
ON 52%
NS 55%
SK 76%
BC 84%
QC 85%
AB 85%
MB 86% Image
Read 17 tweets

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