Ram Ahluwalia, Lumida Profile picture
Oct 22 21 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ NY Attorney General vs. DCG @BarrySilbert:

FTX was worse than Madoff.

And, DCG was worse than Enron.

This thread will show how.

And why the NYAG's request will force a sale of Grayscale.
2/ The Enron fraud involved the use of off-balance sheet special purpose entities (SPEs) to hide debt and inflate profits.

Enron executives engaged in self-dealing transactions.

The NYAG alleges DCG did both of these...and more.
3/ Through complex financial structures, Enron was able to disguise its true financial state, misleading investors and analysts.

DCG did the same (later), but took it to another level
4/ While many of Enron's transactions were technically within the legal boundaries, the aggregate manipulation of these transactions was the fraud.

Enron exploitated accounting loopholes and got auditors and bankers to sign off.
5/ The difference is DCG flat out falsified their statements, withheld material information, withheld disclosure, and lied to its own staff and customers about its cutomer health.

There were no loopholes with the DCG fraud.
6/ DCG and Genesis knew the latter was insolvent. But both parties sought to portray 'business as usual' and a 'well capitalized status' Image
7/ Genesis "concealed disclosure" of financials for many months despite requests from customers and Gemini.

The CFO refused to join customer calls. Instead, the front-line was provided with talking points to perpetuate the deception Image
8/ DCG "raided the Genesis piggy bank using customer funds to finance itself.

DCG directed its subsidiary to re-finance its own loans multiple times and dictated terms.

This action deepened the Genesis negative equity hole. Image
9/ The NYAG complaint is Civil in nature. But the complaint alleges @BarrySilbert and execs broke multiple criminal laws, repeatedly. Image
10/ The NYAG shows thru multiple pieces of evidence that Silbert directed the fraud from DCG.

Silbert: "We can't allow people inside our outside to question Genesis solvency" Image
11/ Pair that note from DCG's CEO with the Genesis CEO saying: "If we're able to show our balance sheet after all of that happened and it still looks strong...people will care less about losses"

That’s not how it works.

You show the balance sheet as-is. Image
12/ Here's more evidence of Barry Silbert directing Genesis.

"We received guidance from [ Silbert ] to re-paper the $100 Loan...we will do what DCG needs us to do."

DCG also set the interest rate and terms. Image
13/ DCG's Head of Communications and COO were drafting tweets for Genesis CEO (Moro) - and advising that he send it off his personal twitter Image
14/ On the Promissory Note

DCG never "assumed the liability" contrary to public statements.

The Promissory Note was material, self-directed and concealed the truth - it was intended to deceive and mislead.

That’s fraud. Image
15\ DCG started talking about "Duration Mismatch" in its November letter to investors and 'crypto volatility' as the cause for its woes.

I called this deception out back in November after the DCG shareholder letter:

16/ Genesis front-line staff and account executives were kept in the dark.

Some asked good questions and suspected not all was well.

This is a story of bad leadership. Image
17/ Not only did Genesis defraud Gemini and conseal statements... when Gemini put in the redemption notice Genesis threatened bankruptcy.

Pause and imagine being placed in that pickle for a moment. Image
18/ Here's a sample of the human cost.

Gemini Earn : 232,000 investors and $1 Bn +

(That excludes Genesis direct creditors)

A 73 year-old grandmother and her husband, both retired, had her life savings in earn. Image
19/ What the NYAG ask?

(1) Prohibit DCG from running a securities & commodities business.

That forces DCG to spin-off Grayscale. DCG would not be able to raise VC money.

So DCG would turn into a zombie company with endless fines & settlements. Image
20/ The NYAG requests that Defendants pay damages, and Restitution, and Disgorgement of profits.

DCG doesn't have the money because of the Widowmaker trade.

So it will take years to make creditors whole.

DCG is done for. And the DCG fraud exceeded Enron.
21/ If you want to learn more about the 'Grayscale GBTC' Widowmaker trade at the center of these issues, this is ane excellent podcast overview

h/t @TheStalwart @tracyalloway

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More from @ramahluwalia

Oct 21
Time to Shame the IPO Underwriters:

We can add Birkenstock to the list of failed IPOs this season.

The stock opened at $41 per share after being priced at $46 per share.

The stock slipped 21% in the first week of trading.

That's the worst IPO performance in 2 years.

The CEO of LVMH had these words: "The reaction is more a reflection of the pricing than it is the quality of the stock".

Here's who the Lead Underwriters were:

Birkenstock: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley

ARM: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Barclays

Instacart: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan

Klaviyo: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup

There are obvious conflicts of interest when an investment bank raises capital, and at the same time sells those shares to its own wealth mangement clientele, and then writes a research report.

Remember that Morgan Stanley $400 price target on Tesla issued not too long ago?

Wake up folks.
Here's the Morgan Stanley report on Tesla.

Tesla's been heading to $200 rather than $400 since then.

Sometimes I think I'm being too harsh on Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.

I own 2 of these stocks, but would never want to be a customer.

I own JPM b/c they pay 0% in deposits to customers, and can push high-fee ETFs down customers throats.

Great business model.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 8
Non-Consensus:

Why is it so fashionable to predict the decline of the US?

Hard disagree with @Noahpinion and @balajis

Let’s break it down by category.

1) Technology leadership: US dominates

2) Military: US dominates

3) Banking: US has 4 of the Top 10 banks.

China has 4 of the Top 10 banks.

>> This is the one source of vulnerability, but it’s the US prize to lose.

JP Morgan is now expanding to the UK…

Blackstone is in China…

>> True, China’s banks are ahead on cashless society

4) Demographics: Younger and wider base than China, Russia, Europe.

The US still ‘imports’ the best brains from China, Russia, and India.

5) Culture of Entrepreneurship: The US has multiple venture/angel ecosystems and the most advanced capital markets.

China meanwhile is silencing erstwhile heroes like Jack Ma.

Sergey Brin left Russia for the United States.

6) Capital Flows: Chinese millionaires and Russian oligarchs want to flee with their capital and secure their funds in American banks

7) China’s growth rate is faltering.

The constraint on US growth is not capital nor investment opportunity - it’s hungry for workers of all skill levels.

8) Advance Technical Education:

CalTech, MIT, Stanford, CMU, IAS

9) Biotechnology

90% of new IP originates in the United States. (The exceptions are Astra Zeneca and Novo Nordisk)

It’s not a competition.

Are there issues?

Plenty (fiscal imbalances, public education, immigration, student debt, digital asset policy, banking policy, credibility in institutions, etc).

BUT, the issues other countries face are far more severe.

The default in rival countries is censorship, corruption, and no exit.

*Any other country would gladly trade their position for the US*

Side Note: There is an ‘edge’ for small ‘city-states’: Singapore, Dubai and Finland

It’s easier practically to unify, govern, specialize and root out corruption.
China’s entrepreneurs are incredible.

They are insanely hungry. They sleep at work. They are smart. They are humble.

I have a lot of admiration and respect for Jack Ma.

And yet the CCP views Jack Ma as a threat to their power rather than a symbol of entrepreneurship.

Great countries rest on a foundation of markets, entrepreneurship, rule of law, innovation, and property rights.

There’s no close second to the United States.
Putin’s Oligarchs Stashed Billions in US Banks Image
Read 8 tweets
Oct 2
Michael Lewis is a great storyteller.

But he delivers narratives rather than true understanding.

FTX was a money losing business.

That led to fraud.

FTX was getting arbed by their own clients.

An exchange can withstand *any* run on the bank because deposits are never rehypothecated.
This thread explains the nature of how FTX was a money loser 👇
Is this evidence of a ‘great business’?

FTX had a flawed quotation and market making algo.

Worse, they telegraphed the midnight rolls to customers who reverse engineered their documentation.

@laurashin will get it right
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30
1/ The Future is Tokenized Culture

Franklin Templeton’s Jenny Johnson nails it at CNBC ‘Delivering Alpha’.

- Tokenization = Securitization on Steroids

- Tokenization of Cultural IP via NFT Royalty Streams.

Rhianna is creating modern era ‘Bowie Bonds’ for fans that can consume, promote and share in the upside.

>> Athletes, Creators, and their Fans is the fastest path to digital asset adoption.

Why? Cultural Relevance

Compilation of my Tokenization Threads 👇
2/ My thread on David Bowie bonds on-chain

Rhianna is leading the way. We need updated Crowdfunding frameworks to truly unlock the magic

x.com/ramahluwalia/s…
3/ Tokenization = Securitization On Steroids

Yes! Asset Backed Markets still do not have loan-level transparency (merely 'sample testing')

x.com/ramahluwalia/s…
Read 16 tweets
Sep 24
Serious Question: What Will Be the Legacy of SEC Chair Gensler?

We are only now grasping the consequences.

1) **Death of Chevron Doctrine**: Under Chair Gensler's watch, the SEC's waning court victories have diluted the deference usually afforded to the agency's interpretations of ambiguous laws. The doctrine's erosion suggests that future SEC actions will face higher judicial scrutiny.

2) **Shift Toward Congressional Authority**: As the SEC loses in multiple districts, courts increasingly look to Congress for definitive guidance on ambiguous matters. This redirects the source of financial regulation authority from the SEC to Congress. (Major Questions Doctrine in ascent.)

3) **Redefining Investment and Commodities**: Legal precedent is evolving. One court's ruling that 'speculation' doesn't qualify as an investment if it lacks common enterprise undermines traditional securities definitions. Combine that with the Ripple ruling (the manner of sale matters in determining whether something is a security) and you have a stronger CFTC and a proliferation of Digital Asset commodities.

4) **Questioning Regulation by Enforcement**: Courts have deemed the SEC's approach to regulation via enforcement as ‘capricious and arbitrary’. Future SEC Chairs, are likely to abandon that unsuccessful strategy.

5) **Increased Litigation**: With the SEC's interpretive guidance holding less weight, we could see a surge in litigation as market participants challenge the agency's authority more aggressively.

6) **Legitimacy Questions for Previous Cases**: If the recent court losses call into question the SEC's interpretive authority, there may be grounds to reexamine past enforcement actions, leading to potential appeals or even reversals.

The sum total of these consequences points to a future where both the SEC and the financial markets it regulates navigate a landscape of greater complexity and uncertainty.

The legacy of SEC Chair Gensler, thus, risks being one that complicates rather than clarifies the rules of the game.

The Chair’s strategies have inadvertently weakened the SEC's legal and enforcement frameworks.

In retrospect, issuing Interpretive Guidance, responding to requests for rule making, or working out a framework with Congress would have been better.

The damage to public confidence, enforcement bite, and the SEC’s reputation as an institution appears significant.

A new SEC Chair and Congressional action seems inevitable to repair the damage.
It turns out longest serving bipartisan SEC Chair @ArthurLevitt was correct: "‘Crypto will be part of the American financial scene sooner than later.’"

x.com/ramahluwalia/s…
In an alternate universe, Chair Gensler could have led the transformation from the old conflict-ridden centralized world to the new all-to-all decentralized world.

He could have bridged the gap, advanced a framework, and gone down as a legend.

He understood TradFi and Crypto.

The issue is not regulatory capture (in this case), it appears to be Political Capture by his political sponsors.

Read 4 tweets
Aug 4
1/ Why is Apple down 3% on earnings. Here's why

- Iphone sales down
- Mac sales down
- Ipad sales down
- Wearables, home and services revenues up

In short Hardware down, services up, no AI capex

My Take: Apple is going from a Growth to a Value Stock. Where to grow next 🧵
2/ On AI: "We view AI and machine learning as core fundamental technologies that are integral to virtually every product that we build"

>> Incremental improvements in personal voice, live voicemail, fall detection. I respect that Apple did not blow billions on Capex/Nvidia chips
3/ ”Apple Card has become one of the most successful credit card programs in the U.S. Customers already making more than $10 billion in deposits”

>> Apple does capture deposits. Goldman, the bank partner does. Apple needs to own a bank to unlock growth.

Read 14 tweets

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