This afternoon I had a conversation w/ a very savvy Jewish journalist. We were talking about the films we’ve both seen of Hamas atrocities.
The horrific murders, the beheadings, child rapes, burning of bound mothers & children…all filmed on GoPro cameras & distributed. 1/11
She was shocked when I said I had seen many of these acts before. Al Qaida, ISIS & even Russian soldiers
It’s part of the playbook of intimidation w/ the message: this is our land, you don’t belong!
It’s a technique from past centuries. 2/
Many US soldiers live with these kinds of memories.
Two haunt me: the heads of a Shia Imam & his family on spikes placed as a warning. The pelvic bone of a suicide bomber remaining on a car seat.
These images appear in constant nightmares. 3/
IDF targeting of Hamas cells in Gaza will unfortunately result in civilian casualties. That happens when terror group “swim among the people” & when terror groups use innocents as shields.
Hamas: the group that uses a doctrinal manual to show how to commit abhorrent crimes. 4/
The Israeli govt has not done near enough to integrate & serve the Palestinian people.
But it is Hamas that has used & abused those same innocents to achieve their strategic objectives: destroy Israel & kill Jews. 5/
All wars are horrific. Some more intense than others.
The conditions of this battlefield is the worst I’ve ever seen. The things we will likely see in the days & weeks ahead will assault all our senses.
It is the worst of the human condition. 6/
There are no quick or easy solutions, as both sides are aggrieved.
A few more hostages will be released, but that’s part of a playbook to provide hope when hope isn’t there.
Thousands of innocents caught in the middle will suffer & is little that can be done to avoid it. 7/
There will be an IDF incursion. Hamas will prove better than many expect in repelling the IDF advance.
Unfortunately, I also believe the fight will last a long time, will result in thousands of casualties, and neither side will achieve their strategic objectives. 8/
It will be important for Israel to prevent the opening of other fronts. The US (& others) must prevent a wider regional conflict.
Arab nations could do something they’ve never done…contribute to dismantling of terror groups, force a 2 state solution, support Israel. 9/
Having studied ALL the wars of Israel & walked their battlefields, this one could be the worse.
One can only hope & pray that won’t be the case and something positive could result.
We’ve seen too many wars. 10/
Please excuse these random thoughts…it’s difficult to not think of these things under these conditions. 11/11
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Flying to NYC to be w/ @CNN in my role as military analyst next week.
Praying for strength to address this war & help others gain insight. But like the war in Ukraine, it is always very difficult.
Because having seen & studied war, I know about fighting.
But…1/4
…what’s hard is not being on the field, yet trying to explain battles & operations and the horrific associated civilian suffering & death, criminal acts & terrorism.
These 2 wars - Ukraine & Israel - require tough decisions & hard calls by leaders in govt & military. 2/
The journalists on the ground are sending their reports. I admire their courage, strength & resilience in reporting horrible events.
I’ll do my best to help interpret those while trying to help others understand…but so much in war cannot be fully understood. 3/
On 21 Feb '22, @CNN asked me to come to NY for the potential start of RU's invasion of Ukraine.
To do the job as military analyst, I knew I had to first link Putin's political objectives to his general's military operations. I scribbled this list on the flight: 1/7
I did the same for Zelenskyy (below) & then started to consider what would be the resulting operations from both sides.
Putin's political objectives were too ambitious for his force...and Zelenskyy had a competent force that would need a lot of help. 2/
It was what national security folks call a "strategic-operational-tactical"
Putin had a "ways-means-end mismatch" from strategic to operational. Zelenskyy focus would be on continuous tactical equipment & logistical support.
Having had the great fortune of spending 16 years in overseas locations during a 38 year military career, I always think of how US current events are seen from the perspective of our allies, partners & foes.
A short 🧵 on those thoughts. 1/9
Serving 12 yrs in EU, 3 yrs in the ME, & many non-consecutive months in Asia & S. America, it seemed most -not all- foreign views of the US, what we claim we stand for & believe in, were positive.
To be sure, there are a few ugly Americans who besmirch our reputation. 2/
As a representative of the US in combat and peacetime situations, I never thought our soldiers should attempt to win "hearts & minds."
Instead, I believed we/they should try to win "trust and confidence" from our allies & the citizens of countries where we served. 3/
After boneheaded comments by 'anonymous sources' & commentary by mostly uninformed who have never seen combat, there's been increasing back-and-forth about how @NATO shouldn't "lecture" Ukraine's army on anything re their offensive.
It might surprise most to hear that US Commanders in combat (& training) are also provided retired generals as "senior mentors" (we call them "gray beards") who contribute to the education of generals who are doing things for the first time. And they are extremely helpful. 3/
The Marshall Center’s @andrewmichta is absolutely correct on this.
The “pivot to Asia” commentary was a mistake made during the Obama admin, and we should avoid it at all costs. It not only gives options to our foes/competitors, it confuses our allies & partners. 1/4
I happened to be in Tblisi for a visit with my Georgian counterpart in 2012 when @StateDept first messaged that term. The 🇬🇪 President called me to his office and asked what “pivot” from Europe meant.
It was a tense conversation. 2/
Saakashvili believed the term alone would further embolden Putin & he wanted me to message his thoughts to my superiors. He also suggested it would resonate globally in ways we hadn’t considered.
I agreed with him on Putin, but didn’t understand his other point. 3/
Since the start of the Russia invasion, I believed Ukraine would persevere. That hasn’t changed, though the battlefield conditions have.
Recently, many have reported “slow movement,” “stumbling,” “lack of success,” of UAF, from those unfamiliar with operational details. 1/
By “operational details,” I mean conditions of the battlefield…those things that affect gaining ground or achieving success by a force.
Often times in combat, units take 3 steps forward, 2 back.
I know this from personal experience. 2/
“Operational details” also describes the synchronization of soldiers, equipment, the terrain, the leadership.
Putting x equipment (new or old) with y soldiers (rookie or experienced) under z leaders (great or good) on any given terrain will result in different outcomes. 3/