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Dougie Kass Profile picture
@DougKass
Oct 25 • 3 tweets • 1 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Coming up on @realmoney
Investing In A Storm
* What follows is a synopsis of my market view and the manner/process in which my hedge fund deals with heightened market volatility and rising uncertainties
* Here comes the heavy stuff...
* Cash combined with courage in a time of
crisis is priceless
"I'd keep playing, I don't think the heavy stuff is going to come down for quite a while."
- Carl Spackler,   Caddyshack
Oh, ratfarts!
@tomkeene @ferrotv @lisaabramowicz1 @business @carlquintanilla @ScottWapnerCNBC @jimcramer
@cnbcfastmoney @halftime @MelissaLeeCNBC @guyadami @bobpisani @pboock @threadreaderapp unroll Image

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More from @DougKass

Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 26
The job of any analyst (and that includes cannabis analysts) is to evaluate all variables in selecting a security - that includes fundamentals, potential legislative initiatives, sentiment, valuation, etc.. I have observed that weed perma bulls blame everything on others ...
when they should blame themselves. Like the boy who cried wolf, one day the bulls (and managements) will be right - but, after a -90% drawdown thinking they are still correct in their fundamental industry assessment, making excuses (and developing short selling conspiracies)
are the height of hubris and poor analysis. Don't blame the game, blame the player. Look in the mirror, stop regurgitating misplaced optimism and take ownership for the wrong footed evaluation of cannabis stocks. (No names.. I praise by individual, criticize by category).
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 23
The Perma bullish cabal liked the action in July - expecting a broadening in the market's advance and a drop in interest rates. When that didn't happen they ignored the eroding technicals/rising rates, calling for an unlikely low double digit advance in 2024 S&P EPS. I have
concluded that come hell, high water, excessive valuations, a spike in real interest rates or a Middle East war they will never abandon their optimism. They are no better than Perma bears - maybe worst. Whether its mega tech, consumer discretionary, transports or even cannabis-
they have blinders on, no rigor of process and lead the retail lemmings over the proverbial cliff. When you see them parade and confidentially regurgitate their pablum on FIN TV (with their Cheshire cat smiles) - turn it off and keep your children and portfolios away from these
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 22
On @realmoney on Friday...
Oct 20, 2023 | 12:40 PM EDT DOUG KASS
First Level Thinking Is On Display Today
* I bring this up not to be snarky or to conduct an ad hominem attack but for you all to understand how I see the market differently than therealmoney.thestreet.com/dougs-daily-di…
consensus
"First-level thinking is simplistic and superficial, and just about everyone can do it - a bad sign for anything involving an attempt at superiority. All the first-level thinker needs is an opinion about the future, as in: 'The outlook for the company is favorable,
meaning the stock will go up.'" Second-level thinking is deep, complex and convoluted. The second-level thinker takes many things into account:
What is the range of likely future outcomes?
Which outcome do I think will occur?
What's the probability I'm right?
Read 7 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 12
@realmoney Narratives keep changing (and are being made up!) but I remain of the view that credit is more attractive than equities, "slugflation" lies ahead (not valuation friendly), political and geopolitical problems are intensifying, our leaders have never been more partisan
(and their fiscal disciplines are non existent), interest rates will be "higher for much longer"  (it is meaningless to me that the rate push is about over for the Fed), EPS expectations (high single digit/low double digit growth in 2024) and upbeat economic forecasts
(within the context of rising real interest rates) are fanciful, the strengthening US dollar (today was the largest gain in weeks) portends corporate profits vulnerability and the equity risk premium is paper thin (and consistent with an extended period of lower
Read 4 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 8
My prayers and the prayers of many are with Israel this weekend.
I wrote this on @realmoney, years ago...
I am a Jew.
In the Jewish religion at Passover there are asked four questions.
I have three that I wake up every morning before trading starts and I ask them of myself:
Unfortunately, I don't like the answers - they are market and society unfriendly.
1. In a paperless and cloudy world, are investors and citizens as safe as the markets assume we are?
2. In a flat, networked and interconnected world, is it even possible for America to be an
"oasis of prosperity" and a driver or engine of global economic growth?
3. With the G-8's geopolitical coordination at an all-time low, how slow and inept will the reaction be if the wheels do come off?
Read 5 tweets
Dougie Kass Profile picture
Oct 3
For months I have argued that the specter of slugflation lies ahead - and with it other headwinds that could be valuation unfriendly. One of those challenges I have expressed on @realmoney and to our investors @seabreezelp is the partisanship and animus between both parties in
Washington DC is dangerous especially amid the burgeoning federal debt load and annual deficit. Few have been worried about this existential risk but they should be. Both sides of the pew are to blame but as investors we have to evaluate the impact of their lack of cooperation
on our investing. (This is something that cannabis investors have learned the hard way). You simply don't want to invest heavily in areas where you need the government to govern intelligently without agenda. This has expanded the range of economic outcomes. A feckless and
Read 4 tweets

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