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The night summary (26.10 05:45 RO/UA time):
0. Today there was a Shahed drone strike about 10 km from the #Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant. #IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors said that for a short time, 2 of the radiation monitoring stations stopped working due to a power failure in the area of Slavuta. The Shahed drones targeting civilian infrastructure, but directly affecting Khmelnytskyi NPP, is yet another proof of utter irresponsibility on the part of the Russians, if not yet another gesture of testing the limits of Ukraine's allies with regard to the threat of nuclear terrorism already practiced by Russia in the case of Energodar NPP.
1. Counter-offensive. Front-Zaporojie.
1.1 Orihiv-Tokmak axis. The AFU continues its slow advance towards Kopany, east of Robotyne. The fighting there is most affected by the fog of war, no matter what sources we look to. Operations Security (OPSEC) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is still consistent with "Plans love silence".
PERSONAL OPINION: In this punching bag, the AFU will try to make the most of thinning Russian lines. Even though the information I received from Ukrainian officials yesterday was that there are 400,000 Russians on the illegally Russian-occupied territories, please remember that most of them are in the logistics, maintenance, engineers, doctors, etc, and far fewer are actively involved in the fighting on the front.
Also on this axis, most of the Russian artillery guns were destroyed, forcing the "great" Russian Federation to beg the tyranny of North Korea for guns and ammunition for its artillery.
1.2 Bakhmut. Apparently, the separate 3rd Azov Assault Brigade alongside supported by the Ukrainian International Legion succeeded in a crossing over the railway line east of Andrivka and advanced Ukrainian and Russian sources by a fit [ATTENTION! UNCONFIRMED INFORMATION VIZALLY] ##Odrandivka, and the Russians withdrew to the trenches on the #Zaitseve-#Kodema line.
PERSONAL OPINION: I believe the main tactical objective of this operation is to cut off the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) T0513 and further east, cut off M-13, which is the main route, other than T0504 for Russian support of the Bakhmut front.
2. Counter-offensive. Kherson Front.
- If so far, for several months, even when I was in July in Kherson, #Anonikva, and #Sadove (first picture), the AFU was already conducting preparations for a possible landing, on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, by this time already in at least 4 places the AFU has managed to push the Russian Army beyond the #Konka River. #Krynky, Kozachi Laheri, #Pishchanivka, #Poima, and #Oleshky are all potheads that the Russians, despite their efforts, have not managed to completely eliminate. Krynky is the last on the list, where AFU has been observed (proven with video footage).
Personal Opinion: In a way I repeat what I wrote yesterday. If this landing, meticulously prepared for months already, will take place this year, in an area where the Russians were not prepared with extraordinarily complex fortifications, then it will put the Russians in great difficulty this winter and the latter will have to revise their plans, because the Crimean Peninsula, Kinburn Spit and all the Crimean communication trunk lines (Armiansk, Chongar, M-14, M-17) are in imminent danger of being drained by the AFU. At the same time, the existence of the AFU creates an extremely difficult dilemma for the Russian Army. Do they displace equipment and soldiers from the Vasilykva and Axis-#Orihiv-#Tokmak area back to the Herson front and thus weaken that front or not and thus risk endangering the Russian connection to the Crimean peninsula? We shall see in the coming weeks.
3. Avdiivka.
- The Russians continue to attack in waves in the Avdiivka area, regardless of casualties. Their advance in the last 24 hours is almost insignificant, but on the northern clamp, the goal seems to be Stepove, which would limit the AFU's logistical capacity to support the 110th mechanized brigade in Avdiivka;
- Forced evacuation of Avdiivka residents, about 1300 in number at this point, has been declared;
- But the Ukrainian heavy cavalry also arrived: the Brigade (the size of at least one Russian division) 1 Tank and the 47th Mechanized Assault Brigade (Magura). These have the objective of relieving the pressure of this attempted Russian encirclement surge and generating as many casualties as possible for the Russian Army.
Personal Opinion: I stand by my opinion from about 24 hours ago, when I said that #Avdiivka is not a strategic military objective from which the Russian Army could further undertake a wide variety of maneuvers on the ground, but consider that it is a political demand directly from the Kremlin, and that makes Russian commanders place zero value on the lives of their soldiers, which they have demonstrated time and time again.
4. International aid.
- #Germany announced the other day an aid package of over 1.4 billion euros, consisting mainly of #Patriot System/Systems, IRIS-T6, #Gepard. All anti-aircraft systems, essential for Ukraine's survival during this winter;
- The US has reportedly announced that it will send a new military aid package, the smallest ever, which will include 155mm ammunition and mostly #HIMARS ammunition (unspecified yet whether it is #ATACMS or not);
*Disclaimer: for those who already followed me from 26.02.2023 onwards, it is not news that my goal with these summaries is not to present every piece of equipment destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine nor those destroyed by the Russian Army. These are well documented by several Twitter accounts. The purpose of these summaries is to help you in shaping an overview and at the same time to present my personal analysis according to the situation on the ground. Thus, from day to day or depending on the time I will try to be sub-contracted, but also present in-depth analysis on different topics when appropriate. I am subject to mistakes, as we all are, but I can assure you that these are not out of malice, but out of the intrinsic nature of war as a dynamic and unpredictable event.
----
In the US, the new Speaker of the Lower House of #Congress, the pro-#Trump #Republican and historically anti-Ukraine Mike #Johnson, has been elected. But shortly after his nomination, he announced that he would bring President #Biden's demand for consistent military support for Ukraine and Israel to the House of Representatives' agenda.
This is extremely important. Extremely important that the West collectively understands that the war in Ukraine is not just affecting #Ukraine and #Europe, it is affecting the entire world. The Axis of Evil, as I dare call it, #Russia-#Iran-#Hamas-#Hezbollah-#Iran cannot win, otherwise, everything that our fathers and we have built in the decades and decades since World War II, that is, socio-economic stability, is at risk in a way that few people see perceive or want to take seriously.
Increasingly, we need to come to terms honestly with the fact that the war in Ukraine IS NO LONGER about Ukraine. It is about all of us. And we all need to stand up for Ukraine. Whether it's on the information front (and you can support this by engaging with posts like this), countering the lies, the Russian disinformation, or helping the civilians and military in Ukraine with needed non-lethal equipment.
I am soon returning to #Kherson to complete the repair of the city's most important Water and Sewer point, which will serve 120,000 people, this was only possible with your donations. Thank you for this and I bow to you!
God bless the Romanian Army, Glory to the Romanian Heroes and #SlavaUkraini !
0. Today there was a Shahed drone strike about 10 km from the #Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant. #IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) inspectors said that for a short time, 2 of the radiation monitoring stations stopped working due to a power failure in the area of Slavuta. The Shahed drones targeting civilian infrastructure, but directly affecting Khmelnytskyi NPP, is yet another proof of utter irresponsibility on the part of the Russians, if not yet another gesture of testing the limits of Ukraine's allies with regard to the threat of nuclear terrorism already practiced by Russia in the case of Energodar NPP.
1. Counter-offensive. Front-Zaporojie.
1.1 Orihiv-Tokmak axis. The AFU continues its slow advance towards Kopany, east of Robotyne. The fighting there is most affected by the fog of war, no matter what sources we look to. Operations Security (OPSEC) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) is still consistent with "Plans love silence".
PERSONAL OPINION: In this punching bag, the AFU will try to make the most of thinning Russian lines. Even though the information I received from Ukrainian officials yesterday was that there are 400,000 Russians on the illegally Russian-occupied territories, please remember that most of them are in the logistics, maintenance, engineers, doctors, etc, and far fewer are actively involved in the fighting on the front.
Also on this axis, most of the Russian artillery guns were destroyed, forcing the "great" Russian Federation to beg the tyranny of North Korea for guns and ammunition for its artillery.
1.2 Bakhmut. Apparently, the separate 3rd Azov Assault Brigade alongside supported by the Ukrainian International Legion succeeded in a crossing over the railway line east of Andrivka and advanced Ukrainian and Russian sources by a fit [ATTENTION! UNCONFIRMED INFORMATION VIZALLY] ##Odrandivka, and the Russians withdrew to the trenches on the #Zaitseve-#Kodema line.
PERSONAL OPINION: I believe the main tactical objective of this operation is to cut off the Ground Line of Communication (GLOC) T0513 and further east, cut off M-13, which is the main route, other than T0504 for Russian support of the Bakhmut front.
2. Counter-offensive. Kherson Front.
- If so far, for several months, even when I was in July in Kherson, #Anonikva, and #Sadove (first picture), the AFU was already conducting preparations for a possible landing, on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, by this time already in at least 4 places the AFU has managed to push the Russian Army beyond the #Konka River. #Krynky, Kozachi Laheri, #Pishchanivka, #Poima, and #Oleshky are all potheads that the Russians, despite their efforts, have not managed to completely eliminate. Krynky is the last on the list, where AFU has been observed (proven with video footage).
Personal Opinion: In a way I repeat what I wrote yesterday. If this landing, meticulously prepared for months already, will take place this year, in an area where the Russians were not prepared with extraordinarily complex fortifications, then it will put the Russians in great difficulty this winter and the latter will have to revise their plans, because the Crimean Peninsula, Kinburn Spit and all the Crimean communication trunk lines (Armiansk, Chongar, M-14, M-17) are in imminent danger of being drained by the AFU. At the same time, the existence of the AFU creates an extremely difficult dilemma for the Russian Army. Do they displace equipment and soldiers from the Vasilykva and Axis-#Orihiv-#Tokmak area back to the Herson front and thus weaken that front or not and thus risk endangering the Russian connection to the Crimean peninsula? We shall see in the coming weeks.
3. Avdiivka.
- The Russians continue to attack in waves in the Avdiivka area, regardless of casualties. Their advance in the last 24 hours is almost insignificant, but on the northern clamp, the goal seems to be Stepove, which would limit the AFU's logistical capacity to support the 110th mechanized brigade in Avdiivka;
- Forced evacuation of Avdiivka residents, about 1300 in number at this point, has been declared;
- But the Ukrainian heavy cavalry also arrived: the Brigade (the size of at least one Russian division) 1 Tank and the 47th Mechanized Assault Brigade (Magura). These have the objective of relieving the pressure of this attempted Russian encirclement surge and generating as many casualties as possible for the Russian Army.
Personal Opinion: I stand by my opinion from about 24 hours ago, when I said that #Avdiivka is not a strategic military objective from which the Russian Army could further undertake a wide variety of maneuvers on the ground, but consider that it is a political demand directly from the Kremlin, and that makes Russian commanders place zero value on the lives of their soldiers, which they have demonstrated time and time again.
4. International aid.
- #Germany announced the other day an aid package of over 1.4 billion euros, consisting mainly of #Patriot System/Systems, IRIS-T6, #Gepard. All anti-aircraft systems, essential for Ukraine's survival during this winter;
- The US has reportedly announced that it will send a new military aid package, the smallest ever, which will include 155mm ammunition and mostly #HIMARS ammunition (unspecified yet whether it is #ATACMS or not);
*Disclaimer: for those who already followed me from 26.02.2023 onwards, it is not news that my goal with these summaries is not to present every piece of equipment destroyed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine nor those destroyed by the Russian Army. These are well documented by several Twitter accounts. The purpose of these summaries is to help you in shaping an overview and at the same time to present my personal analysis according to the situation on the ground. Thus, from day to day or depending on the time I will try to be sub-contracted, but also present in-depth analysis on different topics when appropriate. I am subject to mistakes, as we all are, but I can assure you that these are not out of malice, but out of the intrinsic nature of war as a dynamic and unpredictable event.
----
In the US, the new Speaker of the Lower House of #Congress, the pro-#Trump #Republican and historically anti-Ukraine Mike #Johnson, has been elected. But shortly after his nomination, he announced that he would bring President #Biden's demand for consistent military support for Ukraine and Israel to the House of Representatives' agenda.
This is extremely important. Extremely important that the West collectively understands that the war in Ukraine is not just affecting #Ukraine and #Europe, it is affecting the entire world. The Axis of Evil, as I dare call it, #Russia-#Iran-#Hamas-#Hezbollah-#Iran cannot win, otherwise, everything that our fathers and we have built in the decades and decades since World War II, that is, socio-economic stability, is at risk in a way that few people see perceive or want to take seriously.
Increasingly, we need to come to terms honestly with the fact that the war in Ukraine IS NO LONGER about Ukraine. It is about all of us. And we all need to stand up for Ukraine. Whether it's on the information front (and you can support this by engaging with posts like this), countering the lies, the Russian disinformation, or helping the civilians and military in Ukraine with needed non-lethal equipment.
I am soon returning to #Kherson to complete the repair of the city's most important Water and Sewer point, which will serve 120,000 people, this was only possible with your donations. Thank you for this and I bow to you!
God bless the Romanian Army, Glory to the Romanian Heroes and #SlavaUkraini !
P.S. You can support my work here: Thank you!buymeacoffee.com/raduhossu
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