What happened in Romania? Analysis for the rest of the world. In short: Putin lost (for now). In detail:

Since the first round of the Presidential election, where we explained the electoral system and the two competitors who made it to the final, which you can read more about here: 🧵👇 How we got here: x.com/RaduHossu/stat…

2/14 , a lot has happened, culminating in the annulment of the election.

How did it come to this?

On November 28, 4 days after the first round of elections, President Klaus Iohannis convened the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT), which is the independent body under the leadership of the President of the country that meets to debate and propose the national security strategy and extraordinarily to analyze specific situations that may be subject to national security.

What's happening in Romania. An analysis for the rest of the world:

On 11/24/2024 we had the first round of the presidential election. In Romania, the voting system states that the top two contenders qualify for the second round, where whoever wins 50%+1 of the votes becomes president.🧵👇 2/21 Romania is a semi-presidential Republic from a constitutional perspective, but from a practical perspective it is rather semi-parliamentarist, meaning that it is the Parliament that actually has the power to appoint the Government (in consultation with the President of the Republic, but the President is compelled to accept the proposals of a parliamentary majority), but also has the power to dismiss the Government by a motion of no confidence.

An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) has been used to hit targets in Ukraine, setting a historic precedent. Why is this important? What does Putin say about it and why should it matter what the killer says?

Background: last night Russia attacked Dnipro, specifically Youzhmash, which is the plant where military and civilian aerospace equipment is produced 🧵👇 2/14 If you remember, in the analysis on "Can Ukraine (re)become a nuclear power?" I mentioned about this complex which together with the neighboring design bureau (Yozhnoye) formed the center of development of aerospace technologies in Ukraine and the USSR.

This is Russia's response to the US, UK and France's decision to lift restrictions on the use of 300 km ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCAPL-EG on Russian territory and Ukraine's decision to use them for exactly this purpose.

After Realitatea TV, Romania TV was also fined by CNA - the National Audiovisual Council - for the media lynching to which I was subjected. Romania TV (Romania's biggest news channel) received a more symbolic fine of 5000 lei for Victor Ciutacu's (pro-Russian) program because my image rights were not respected and because I was accused of various facts without any evidence being presented. If I was accused of being a 'terrorist' on Realitatea, I was accused of being a 'mercenary' on Romania TV on the same evening.🧵👇 2/15 These two fines, the one against Realitatea TV (Anca Alexandrescu show) and the one against României TV (Victor Ciutacu show), demonstrate what we have been warning for a long time: we are in a hybrid war on Romanian territory.

The Night Summary. Day 999 (18.11.2024 at 03:45 RO/UA time):

The US has lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, mainly ATACMS. Immediately after the announcement, France and the UK announced the same, and here we are discussing Storm Shadow.

What do these decisions mean and what impact could they have on the war?

I wrote on September 12 about the impact of these capabilities on warfare, when the first serious public discussion of such a thing was first seriously discussed. 🧵👇 2/18 Since you most probably still don't feel like reading two posts this morning, I briefly reiterate here some of the main ideas from then:

- Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cannot hit the Kerch Bridge.

1/16 I was asked on Digi24 what Trump's new mandate means for Ukraine. I answer what I think in more detail here:

1. Donald Trump:

President Trump is poised to be a President who will have through the Republican Party absolute control of the Administration and the Congress if the House of Representatives is also won (and it looks like it will be) by Republicans. That means his ideas will be more easily implemented than Obama's or Biden's. But even this political configuration does not guarantee that his vision on Ukraine and Russia will be implemented 100%. 2/16 First, we need to consider what the people Trump worked with in his first term are saying about what he understands from this war and what he understood from the illegal annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbas. Trump, according to people close to him, doesn't understand anything about the art of war, doesn't understand what it takes to win a war. He is instead interested in his image as a strongman who "solves" US enemies. He wants to go down in history as the man who saved the US and took it to new heights of world greatness.

1/13 Little guide to reading the results in Rep. Moldova (this is to protect you from heart attacks when the first polling stations are counted):

1. The Central Electoral Commission website will crash at the beginning of the vote count, i.e. tonight and tomorrow morning (Ro/Md time).

Tip: If you've managed to access it, leave the window open, that the numbers update automatically. 2/13 If you refresh during rush hour, you won't catch the slot and you'll be in for a shock.

2. The percentages you'll see as counted are percentages of Minutes counted. That is, sections counted. Be careful, these are not percentages of votes counted, as there was confusion in Romania, but also in the Republic of Moldova and everyone was wondering how the referendum was lost when it was obvious that it was not.

1/18 Strategically, in the long term Russia has lost the war, but Ukraine may lose it in the short term militarily
I. Two years ago, when I was still on the Eastern Front (Kharkiv Oblast), I used to say that Russia strategically lost the war. Why?
1. Politically:
It did not achieve its main political goal: political decapitation of Ukraine, changing the democratically elected political leadership with a puppet leadership already prepared from the Kremlin. 2/18 President Zelensky refused the US offer to flee, he stayed in Kyiv and this changed not only the history of Ukraine, but the history of the whole of Central and Eastern Europe, with (positive) consequences for the whole of the Collective West.
Also politically it managed to put Russia in the most ungrateful international position in its modern history. Never was Russia viewed with such hatred as it is now in most parts of the globe. During the Cold War, Russia at least had many communist allies/partners.

Zelensky said: NATO or go back to being a nuclear power! The tabloid Bild published an article the same day quoting Ukrainian government sources as saying "if we are given the order, in 3 weeks we can build a nuclear bomb". Kyiv denied that such a discussion had ever taken place. Informative🧵 2/38 I promise a feast of interesting information:

The really important question is, would, can Ukraine (re)become a nuclear power? Let's begin:

1. How did Zelensky's statement come about?

In 1991 Ukraine inherited the world's third-largest nuclear arsenal, surpassed only by the USA and Russia.

1/24 Zelensky's Victory Plan. What it is, what it means and whether it can be implemented:

It was submitted to the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's unicameral parliament with the intention of informing the legislature and through it the Ukrainian people. The plan does not need the approval of the Rada as it is non-binding and not subject to legislative constraints.

It consists of 5 points with 3 secret annexes:

1. NATO. 2/24 Invitation to join NATO.

- President Zelensky argues that this is the only way Russia will stop its aggression against Ukraine. In the absence of a military victory and total evacuation of the Russians from the illegally occupied Ukrainian territories, the arguments made by the Ukrainian President are valid.

This is not MadMax. This is the MEDIVAC for Oleg Gubal Mobile Hospital Complex 100% funded by #Romanian donors on my Facebook page. This Vehicle is 90% ready. Tires will be changed. It will be anti-mine NATO standard protected. This will take the wuunded from 0 line. Thread: 1/N

1. I have gathered from private donations of Romanians 451.000 euros so far and donated them to Ukraine in various forms of help. In this picture is a fire truck that i drove into #Bakhmut last month, picture taken entering Donetsk Oblast. Cost 28k eur with tansport. Thread: 2. Bought 4 of decommisioned DAC Romanian Army Trucks, repaired them, painted them and donated them to the #ZSU. The total cost of those (with repair and transport) 36k euro. @ChuckPfarrer maybe you'll like those :)

Today update: @DefMon3 i know you like this project. This is the first 100% volunteer funded, more than 80% from Romanian donors from which i fund it, and the rest from Poland and Spain. The Military Mobile Complex Oleg Gubal. In november it looked like in the 2nd picture. 1/ The idea started from callsign Angel, a medic, horored by the Ukraine Goverment as a hero for saving (him and the others in the picture) 550+ people from Chernihiv while under siege in the fist months of the war with their own cars and after that working in the city hospital. 2/