1/7 An extraordinary achievement! This morning the Ukrainians successfully hit the Engels-2 air base in the Saratov region. Part of the Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, Tu-160 strategic bombers are stationed there.

There they are loaded with Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, as well as KAB and FAB guided bombs. The strategic base is located 700 km from the Ukrainian border. ⤵️ 2/7 The initial and secondary blasts scattered debris over a 5km radius and shattered the windows of a hospital 8km away. These are indications, in addition to video footage, that the attack on the base was successful.

While Ukraine has shifted the dynamics of the war in its favor, Putin says he would agree to Ukraine and the Trump Administration's 30-day ceasefire proposal IF! that ceasefire would lead to a lasting peace. And you didn't really believe him, did you? 🧵 2/13 russia has handed the Trump Administration a list of demands for this lasting peace to take place: removing Ukraine from the path to NATO membership, international recognition of the illegally occupied regions, namely Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhe, and stopping all military aid to Ukraine.

These demands are, what in the negotiations are called "non-starter" conditions, representing absurd demands for the other side, being just PR smoke, behind which are hidden the real intentions, those of not reaching a lasting peace.

What's really happening in Romania? I, along with others, have to answer this question because our institutions are severely deficient in communication, leaving Romania trapped between Elon Musk’s fake news and Russian active measures orchestrated by the FSB/SVR.

The beginning: In October 2024, during the candidate validation process for the Romanian presidential election, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR—consider it similar to the U.S. Supreme Court for reference) invalidated the candidacy of Diana Ivanovici Șoșoacă. 2/9 She is a Member of the European Parliament, a Putin supporter, a frequent visitor to the Russian Embassy in Romania, and leader of a far-right party with fascist-leaning yet paradoxically neo-communist views. Anti-Ukraine and all that comes with it.

The CCR ruled that Șoșoacă had violated Romanian laws regarding the promotion of antisemitism and oppressive-criminal regimes. At that time, the far-right in Romania had three candidates in the race: George Simion, Diana Șoșoacă, and Călin Georgescu.

Donald Trump mentioned the Republic of Moldova in last night's State of The Union speech. Not in a good way, but in a bad way. Not in the transatlantic sense, but in the Moscow sense.

With each passing day, Donald Trump moves closer to realizing the Kremlin's ambitions from the letter Putin sent to NATO in December 2021, months before the invasion of Ukraine. In case you don't remember it, I'll remind you of some of the demands considered absurd by the civilized world at the time: 2/12

1. In the first chapter, titled "Security Measures for the Russian Federation from NATO":

1.1 NATO not to welcome any new states into the alliance;
1.2 NATO not to offer arms to Ukraine or any state that joined the alliance after 1997;
1.3 To prohibit any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus or Central Asia;
1.4 The re-establishment of a consultative mechanism along the lines of the Russia-NATO Council and the implementation of a NATO-Russia hotline;

2. In the second chapter, titled "US-Russia Security Safeguards Treaty":

1We are on an information roller-coaster. Today we speak optimistically again. I start on the less optimistic side and end with a lot of optimism:

1. What does the Trump administration's decision mean for Ukraine?

First and foremost it means the halt as of tonight night of any military aid that is contracted or already contracted (so it falls into the realm of illegality to decide) or that is on its way to Ukraine, whether it was munitions, heavy military equipment or military assistance in other forms. 🧵👇 2/24 Here I also include military equipment that is already in Poland and just needed to be crossed the border. I am writing this to understand the magnitude of the decision.

What impact will it have on Ukraine and when will it be seen?

The amount of blocked military aid may not exceed $5 billion, part PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority), part USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative), part USSAU (U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine) which encompasses the two, but also includes aid provided by a vote by Congress.

What Cristian Diaconescu, the head of the Chancellery of the President of Romania's Office, conveyed yesterday is no less than a historic event all NATO states that acceded NATO after 1997. On this occasion, the whole of our society should be aware of what Cristian Diaconescu said.
Firstly, the fact that the head of the presidential chancellery was able to make the following statements means that he had the approval of the President of the Republic.🧵 2/24 Secondly, the content of these statements have major implications for the future of each and every one of us, regardless of our social status, level of education, ideology, political affiliation or the appreciation of any candidate or party.
The Romanian state has received information from allies (most likely from the American side) about the talks in Riyadh between the US and Russia on the peace negotiations in Ukraine.

I stated at the beginning of the war that Russia's interest was first and foremost to get back to the table of the big players. To do that it needed to regain its sphere of influence, i.e. to be in control or indirect control of large enough populations/nations and large enough economies that it could effectively interoperate with the two big super powers (the US and China). This is the only way to get Putin back in the picture and thus deliver a victory for the population dreaming of Russia's long-gone power.🧵 2/13 I was also saying at the beginning of the war that in addition to the strategic political objective of decapitating Ukraine in order to control it and from there project power and divisiveness throughout Eastern Europe (directly affecting the Baltics, Poland and Romania and thus effectively blocking the functioning of the European Union), they also had the strategic political interest of weakening European cohesion in the hope that Europe and the US would give in before Russia reached the end of its strength.

This month we will enter the 4th year of war in Ukraine, which means we have reached the halfway point of the duration of World War II.

There are, keeping the scale, some similarities with WW2:

1. The aggressor's leader has imperialistic visions and considers himself on a mission to restore the nation's lost glory due to the world occult:

- Hitler believed that Germany was the providential nation and he had the mission to save it from the oppression of the world occult (then and now, Jews). 🧵 2/13 He had a fascination with Roman emperors and considered himself the last emperor of a Germany continuing the Western Roman Empire;
- Putin believes that Russia is an indispensable nation in defending certain values (such as Orthodox Christianity) and that it needs to regain its lost status due to the West. He has a fascination with former Russian leaders like Peter the Great and wants to restore Russki Myr (Russian World);

Did I ever tell you how I was a neighbor of Prigojin? Exactly two years ago, on January 20, 2023, I was in the heart of Bakhmut. 700 meters away were the first Wagner troops, as Bakhmut was already partially occupied by the Russians.
To make a long story short, I got there because I personally delivered a fire truck to the Bakhmut brigade after Vice dot com USA did a story🧵👇👇 2/8 sometime in the fall of 2022 about the only functioning fire brigade that had a shrapnel-drilled truck in its equipment, which they used to put out fires and rescue wounded from under Russian-caused rubble.
@DefMon3 posted a photo from the Vice footage appealing to international organizations to help the fire brigade. I volunteered and after consulting with two large organizations in Sweden (@BlagulaBilen) and Norway (@NorwegianAidUkr) to find out what I should buy.

1/16 Shawn Ryan, a former Navy SEAL and CIA bodyguard, betrays the common interests of the US and Romania by the deliberate actions he takes to propagate lies in the public space.

@ShawnRyan762 interviewed pro-Putin candidate for the Romanian presidency, Călin Georgescu, where the Romanian candidate said that the Romanian-NATO-US Mihail Kogălniceanu Romanian-NATO-US Base in Romania would be used as a base to attack Russia. 2/16 This is a falsehood, a lie, but what Shawn Ryan has done betrays the common strategic interests of the US and Romania and I accuse him directly of this.

Background:

Shawn Ryan: is a former US Army elite, part of the famous Navy SEAL teams. He was later a CIA contractor, which translates to being part of the CIA's armed wing. That doesn't make him a CIA officer, but rather a bodyguard for CIA officers and staff. He became known for his Youtube podcast "The Shawn Ryan Show" where he has exceptional guests like the real heroes of 13 Hours of Bengazi.

Patrushev's statement on Romania and the Republic of Moldova is of extreme importance and it is serious that 24 hours after its publication, the Romanian state has not responded.

I want us to understand the context of this statement, because that is the only way to understand its seriousness:

The interview is given in Komsomolskaia Pravda, a former USSR office, Putin's current office, a tabloid publication with a very large audience in the Russian press.🧵👇👇 2/18 So the interview is meant to reach as many people in Russia as possible, therefore it is an indicator that this interview is (ALSO) meant to convey a message to the people.

The interview is about foreign policy, Trump's second term, Ukraine, upcoming peace talks, Romania, Moldova and the European Union. This is an indicator that the interview is (ALSO) for foreign use.

The interview is given by Nikolai Patrushev, Putin's senior advisor, former head of the FSB, former head of the Russian Security Council, still a full member of the latter.

The Night Summary (07.01.2025 at 07:05 RO/UA time):

1. Ukraine restarts offensive in Kursk

- On January 5, the Armed Forces of Ukraine restart the Kursk offensive, 5 months after the start of the Operation (August 6, 2024). The offensive is taking place (it is still active) on three different axes, to the north (towards Bolshoe Soldatskoe), east and west of Sudzha, the most important settlement controlled by Ukraine;🧵👇👇 The offensive is taking place (it is still active) on three different axes, to the north (towards Bolshoe Soldatskoe), east and west of Sudzha, the most important settlement controlled by Ukraine;

- Just as in August 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are in operational silence, so information about the theater of operations is found with Russian sources who recognize an advance of at least 8 km northwards, the AFU's conquest of several settlements in all three directions;

- There is speculation as to the ultimate objectives of this new offensive,

What's happening in Transnistria with the potential humanitarian crisis. In a conversation I had with Romania's Energy Minister, he answers the important question: what can Romania do to stabilize a situation that Russia has created.

Since January 1, Transnistria, i.e. the breakaway region between Moldova and Ukraine, is no longer receiving natural gas because of Russia, a situation that is about to generate a humanitarian crisis and further a political crisis in the whole Republic of Moldova. 🧵👇👇 2/5

Happy New Years to you. Russia has increased the cost paid in equipment per square kilometer by 15800%. Fifteen thousand eight hundred percent compared to the first month of the invasion!

"russia conquers several more settlements in Donbas", "russia advances relentlessly in Ukraine", "russia continues its relentless assault on Ukraine".🧵👇👇 2/15 These are the headlines I have heard, read and seen in the national and international media over the past year.

Such headlines, repeated over a long period of time, produce a simple predictable effect: (1) demobilization of volunteers around the world from supporting Ukraine, (2) building the image of an invincible and unstoppable Russia, and (3) a decline in interest in the conflict.

The war against Romania

In 2025 Russia CAN win the Battle for Romania. The outcome of this battle depends not just on the state, but on each of us. Elections canceled by Romania's Constitutional Court in 2024 will be rerun in the spring of 2025.
🧵👇 2/29 1. We are at war, ladies and gentlemen.
And unfortunately it will not pass if we stick our heads in the sand.

If what I am saying seems out of the ordinary, I will be sure to define and spell out what I mean:
Russia has started a war against Romanian society, against the Romanian state and therefore against each and every one of us. Within the framework of the hybrid war that it has been waging for some time now on Europe, Romania is one of the states that has long been a Russian target.
1.1 War: according to one of the greatest theorists, Carl von Clausewitz, war is the continuation of politics by other means.

What happened in Romania? Analysis for the rest of the world. In short: Putin lost (for now). In detail:

Since the first round of the Presidential election, where we explained the electoral system and the two competitors who made it to the final, which you can read more about here: 🧵👇 How we got here: x.com/RaduHossu/stat…

2/14 , a lot has happened, culminating in the annulment of the election.

How did it come to this?

On November 28, 4 days after the first round of elections, President Klaus Iohannis convened the Supreme Council for National Defense (CSAT), which is the independent body under the leadership of the President of the country that meets to debate and propose the national security strategy and extraordinarily to analyze specific situations that may be subject to national security.

What's happening in Romania. An analysis for the rest of the world:

On 11/24/2024 we had the first round of the presidential election. In Romania, the voting system states that the top two contenders qualify for the second round, where whoever wins 50%+1 of the votes becomes president.🧵👇 2/21 Romania is a semi-presidential Republic from a constitutional perspective, but from a practical perspective it is rather semi-parliamentarist, meaning that it is the Parliament that actually has the power to appoint the Government (in consultation with the President of the Republic, but the President is compelled to accept the proposals of a parliamentary majority), but also has the power to dismiss the Government by a motion of no confidence.

An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) has been used to hit targets in Ukraine, setting a historic precedent. Why is this important? What does Putin say about it and why should it matter what the killer says?

Background: last night Russia attacked Dnipro, specifically Youzhmash, which is the plant where military and civilian aerospace equipment is produced 🧵👇 2/14 If you remember, in the analysis on "Can Ukraine (re)become a nuclear power?" I mentioned about this complex which together with the neighboring design bureau (Yozhnoye) formed the center of development of aerospace technologies in Ukraine and the USSR.

This is Russia's response to the US, UK and France's decision to lift restrictions on the use of 300 km ATACMS, Storm Shadow/SCAPL-EG on Russian territory and Ukraine's decision to use them for exactly this purpose.

After Realitatea TV, Romania TV was also fined by CNA - the National Audiovisual Council - for the media lynching to which I was subjected. Romania TV (Romania's biggest news channel) received a more symbolic fine of 5000 lei for Victor Ciutacu's (pro-Russian) program because my image rights were not respected and because I was accused of various facts without any evidence being presented. If I was accused of being a 'terrorist' on Realitatea, I was accused of being a 'mercenary' on Romania TV on the same evening.🧵👇 2/15 These two fines, the one against Realitatea TV (Anca Alexandrescu show) and the one against României TV (Victor Ciutacu show), demonstrate what we have been warning for a long time: we are in a hybrid war on Romanian territory.

The Night Summary. Day 999 (18.11.2024 at 03:45 RO/UA time):

The US has lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range missiles, mainly ATACMS. Immediately after the announcement, France and the UK announced the same, and here we are discussing Storm Shadow.

What do these decisions mean and what impact could they have on the war?

I wrote on September 12 about the impact of these capabilities on warfare, when the first serious public discussion of such a thing was first seriously discussed. 🧵👇 2/18 Since you most probably still don't feel like reading two posts this morning, I briefly reiterate here some of the main ideas from then:

- Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cannot hit the Kerch Bridge.

1/16 I was asked on Digi24 what Trump's new mandate means for Ukraine. I answer what I think in more detail here:

1. Donald Trump:

President Trump is poised to be a President who will have through the Republican Party absolute control of the Administration and the Congress if the House of Representatives is also won (and it looks like it will be) by Republicans. That means his ideas will be more easily implemented than Obama's or Biden's. But even this political configuration does not guarantee that his vision on Ukraine and Russia will be implemented 100%. 2/16 First, we need to consider what the people Trump worked with in his first term are saying about what he understands from this war and what he understood from the illegal annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbas. Trump, according to people close to him, doesn't understand anything about the art of war, doesn't understand what it takes to win a war. He is instead interested in his image as a strongman who "solves" US enemies. He wants to go down in history as the man who saved the US and took it to new heights of world greatness.