Ukraine continues its kinetic sanctions. The Russians admit: 38% of refining capacity has been shut down.

On September 20, I made a personal analysis based on information from open sources. My estimate at the time was 40%.
1/ I detailed figures, data, and sources on my substack to visually attest to the destruction. Nothing mattered to the flood of Russian bots and a few dozen real people incapable of reason who threatened me, insulted me, and attacked me in every way possible.

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Ukraine's kinetic sanctions: 40% of Russia's refining capacity affected in August and September!

The campaign of sanctions against Russia imposed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces is working, and even though the number of strikes this month has halved, the affected refining capacity has doubled. Before we get to the effects, here are some details about this campaign, which is at least as effective as SpiderWeb or the destruction of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea:

image source: @Tendar
1/ Russia has 46 oil refineries, with an estimated annual refining capacity of 316.9 million tons per year. For comparison, Romania has a capacity of 13 million tons per year, Germany 104 million tons per year, Italy 87.1 million tons per year, Austria 10.2 million tons per year, and France 60.4 million tons per year. To match Russia, I would add the UK to the list with 58 million tons per year. So indeed, as John McCain said, "Russia is a refinery masquerading as a country."

Of the 46 refineries, 19 were hit by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. One was hit by the Russian Forces of Corruption in collaboration with the Natural Forces of God (the Omsk Refinery was flooded and damaged after a dam broke on April 5, 2024).
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A new world is beginning! Are we prepared? Do not just read the headline!

1. The Axis of Evil:

Improperly said, it was born. It had been in the making for some time. A few years ago, I was also talking about the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran as the Axis of Evil. Many, many years ago, serious and respectable analysts were pointing to such a future. That future is now beginning. In Beijing, in addition to the military parade that sought to showcase the scale, range, and modernity of the PLA (People's Liberation Army—i.e., the Chinese Army), China wanted to show something else:

1/ That it is the center of a new political, social, and economic construct that will shape the global future. And it succeeded in doing so. It succeeded in making Kim Jong-Un's diplomatic debut on the international stage, with the North Korean dictator attending such an important event for the first time, having previously only made appearances for bilateral meetings with Xi Jinping, Putin, or Trump.

In the family photo, as the photo where the guests stand on a stepped podium and sit next to each other is called, we also have two former prime ministers of Romania: Adrian Năstase and Viorica Dăncilă. In the bottom row, we have Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin—a war criminal, Kim Jong Un—another bloody criminal, this time only of his own people, and other leaders from Africa and Asia. Europe was represented by Slovakia and Serbia. Another dictator, Erdogan, could not be missing from such an event. The devil is in the details, of course. This bloc is not equal, uniform, or perfectly coordinated either. russia, for example, is a poor vassal to China, doing its dirty work in Ukraine, because it keeps an important part of the Western bloc occupied and stuck in endless bureaucracy and the indecision of weak leaders.

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russia officially wants to get *at least to the Danube. On August 30, two days ago, Valri Gherasimov, Chief of Staff of the Russian Army, gave a presentation on the situation on the Ukrainian front, showing a map with the percentages of each Ukrainian region that had been illegally occupied. 1/ What the Romanian and international media failed to notice, but Perun did (search for him on YouTube), was another, much more important map: a map that most likely shows at least part of Russia's intentions: the total occupation not only of the Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas) and Zaporizhia and Kherson regions east of the Dnieper, but also of three more: Kherson west of the Dnieper, Mykolaiv, and Odesa. 2/

Zelenskyy submits a new law that will guarantee the independence of the fight against corruption

Zelenskyy submits a new law that will guarantee the independence of the fight against corruption

1. After the infamous Law 12414, which placed independent anti-corruption institutions under the direct control of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine and thus the Zelenskyy administration, Ukrainians took to the streets in all major cities.

Key points: Ukrainians took to the streets during wartime to protect their democracy, the rule of law, and their European path.

🧵 2. President Zelenskyy announced the following day that he would propose a law (in Ukraine, the president can directly propose laws) to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament). Yesterday (July 24, 2025), he sent Law 13533 to the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's unicameral parliament), a new law that would restore the independence of these anti-corruption institutions (NABU and SAPO), introducing several changes to their functioning, mainly changes related to ensuring that these institutions will not abuse their powers and will be more difficult for Russia to infiltrate.

What to remember: The president of a country at war with the world's second largest army listened to society and international partners (yes, I know, some would say he was forced by circumstances) and proposed a new law. 2/

What is happening in Ukraine? An analysis for those outside Ukraine

1. NABU, SAPO, and Law 12414

Yesterday, Law 12414 was enacted. The law provides for amendments to the functioning of NABU and SAPO, two anti-corruption institutions which, together with the High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC), are part of the architecture for reforming the state through the fight against corruption. How they work is explained on substack so as not to make this text too long: raduhossu dot substack dot com. However, I recommend that you visit substack, because these details will make the difference between falling into one extreme or another (for those who really want to understand the subject and are not just pro-Russian scoundrels):

Law 12414 places NABU and SAPO under the control of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, who is appointed by the President (the current one is notoriously close to Zelenskyy) and gives him the power to choose which cases go to which prosecutor and whether they fall under SAPO's jurisdiction or not. In practice, this means that the President of Ukraine has the power, with just one phone call, to close a major corruption investigation if those targeted are people close to him.

The law was initiated some time ago by deputies from President Zelenskyy's party, Servants of the People, and the amendments were passed at incredible speed, on the same day they were not only voted on but also approved by President Zelenskyy in what civil society (NGOs, independent media) calls the greatest betrayal of the fight against corruption and the European path since Yanukovych and Euromaidan.
🧵 2. How did we get here?

This year, there have been several events indicating that the Zelenskyy administration is preparing to take a step back from the fight against corruption.

A few months ago, the head of the BES (Economic Security Bureau), another independently run institution with the status of a government agency that investigates cases of financial fraud (a combination of ANAF and DIICOT), came under attack: its director, elected by a special commission comprising a decisive number of members of the international community and civil society with voting rights, was blocked from being appointed. So the person chosen by this commission was blocked and a close associate of the government was appointed in his place.

A few weeks ago, one of Ukraine's most important investigative journalists had his home searched by the SBU under a flimsy pretext after he repeatedly criticized Andrii Yermak, the head of Zelenskyy's office. Vitalii Shanunin is not only an anti-corruption activist, he also works for a government agency that basically develops anti-corruption strategies for Ukraine.

A few weeks ago, NABU also charged Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov with corruption. According to activists and independent media in Ukraine, this is when NABU and SAPO became targets of the Zelenskyy administration and his party, with Andrii Yermak seen by the people as the main culprit.

The reason given for this law is Russian interference in anti-corruption institutions and the slow pace of proceedings. These arguments, put forward by both President Zelenskyy and SBU chief Vitaly Maliuk, are very weak and illogical (there is at least one Russian spy in every institution in Ukraine, but that does not mean that all of them should be placed under the president's control) and only serve to further anger the population and discourage supporters of the Ukrainian people. 2/

Trump's announcement. Analysis.

This evening (July 14) at a press conference with Mark Rutte, NATO chief Donald Trump made a series of statements regarding Ukraine and Russia, but only a few are relevant, and even those raise doubts and await confirmation:

1. A 50-day ultimatum for Putin to conclude a ceasefire agreement, otherwise Trump will impose secondary sanctions of 100%.

What does this mean?

First of all, 50 days is an extremely long period of time. During these 50 days, thousands, if not tens of thousands, of drones and ballistic missiles could be launched on major cities in Ukraine. What is even stranger about this statement is that it comes after Putin's statement a few days ago that a major offensive in Ukraine would begin in 60 days. Thus, Trump's announcement is certainly not one that will scare the Kremlin, quite the contrary.

The secondary sanctions Trump is talking about could cause problems for the Trump administration, which has used tariffs and economic measures to gain advantages. Secondary sanctions of 100% for countries that in one way or another support or help Russia, countries such as India, the UAE or China, would only reduce his advantage. So I am skeptical about the value of this statement and Trump's real intention to turn this statement into action. 🧵👇 2. Trump is very angry with Putin.

What does that mean?

Absolutely nothing. The assumption of many of us who are following the war and its implications more closely is that Trump is angry with Putin not for humanitarian reasons, as he claims, but because—according to sources—Putin did not agree to a deal on rare minerals, similar to the one he made with Ukraine. Putin simply strung him along until Trump got angry that the talks were going nowhere. These assumptions are reinforced by the fact that Trump has said that Russia could be a viable economic partner for the US and that tonight he spoke about the "huge potential of the Russian economy" and that "Putin should think about it."

Putin's approval rating among Romanians rises by 37%! (INSCOP Barometer) A warning that should not be ignored!

I am sounding the alarm for those who want to hear it!
What we could not have imagined in 2022, when the large-scale invasion of Ukraine began, is happening: the approval rating of war criminal Vladimir Putin in Romania has risen from 11.4% to 15.6%, an increase of 36.8% between March 2024 and July 2025 - source: Remus Ștefureac, INSCOP Barometer
How can such an increase be explained? Through manipulation, disinformation, and hybrid warfare.
I have said it before, and I will say it again: Romania has been under attack by Russia for many years, and Russia has intensified its assault on us in recent years. It is not only us, the citizens, who must start from this reality, but also the people in institutions (from local government to the secret services, the government, parliament, and the presidential administration).

russia confirms: we want to reach the border with Romania and Moldova

I have said it before and I will say it again, because if we do not define what we see, we do not see the danger, and if we do not see the danger, we do not know how to defend ourselves, to paraphrase Carole Cadwalladr:

Russia is de facto at war with Romania, not just Ukraine.

The sooner we open our eyes, the sooner such a headline will no longer be considered 'panic-stricken', but a realistic one, to which we will begin to have solutions. 🧵👇👇👇 2/17 Individual, group and institutional or state.

1. russia plans to reach the Danube Gorges with the help of the Trump administration

Occupation Governor Vladimir Saldo - Kherson, aims in line with the vision of Trump's special envoy Witkoff, to occupy the west bank of the Dnieper. Vladimir Putin agrees with this call. Because the Kherson region, including the territory legitimately controlled by Ukraine, is de jure (from Russia's perspective) annexed to the territory of the Russian federation.

American-style robbery.

Trump's proposed new mineral deal for Ukraine is nothing more, nothing less, than the robbery of Ukraine and its future, while at the same time being an attempt by the Trump Administration to block Ukraine's accession to the European Union.
🧵THREAD🧵 2/16 It is probably the most important topic in the coming days and one that will shape the future of the war in Ukraine and indirectly the future of the world, so I recommend you to be interested in what I am about to write not only me but all those who will discuss this topic and have an understanding of the events in Ukraine.

The 3rd proposed agreement, American Style Robbery.

Valeri Zaluzhnyi, the former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said: 'I received a phone call from Romania asking me not to mention that Shahed drones are falling there [on the territory of Romania]. They said . I told them to shoot them down, you only have 40 F-16s". 🧵👇 2/20 1. First of all, regarding the credibility of the statement, which damages Romania's image extremely seriously: I am absolutely convinced that the information provided by Zaluzhnyi is true and I argue: when the first drones fell in Plauru and Ceatalchioi (Tulcea Region, Romania), I remember as yesterday that I was talking to the Ukrainian side who at 5 am told me about the event and all day our side was denying it, up to the highest level. It was on September 4, 2023.

1/7 An extraordinary achievement! This morning the Ukrainians successfully hit the Engels-2 air base in the Saratov region. Part of the Tu-22M3, Tu-95MS, Tu-160 strategic bombers are stationed there.

There they are loaded with Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles, as well as KAB and FAB guided bombs. The strategic base is located 700 km from the Ukrainian border. ⤵️ 2/7 The initial and secondary blasts scattered debris over a 5km radius and shattered the windows of a hospital 8km away. These are indications, in addition to video footage, that the attack on the base was successful.

While Ukraine has shifted the dynamics of the war in its favor, Putin says he would agree to Ukraine and the Trump Administration's 30-day ceasefire proposal IF! that ceasefire would lead to a lasting peace. And you didn't really believe him, did you? 🧵 2/13 russia has handed the Trump Administration a list of demands for this lasting peace to take place: removing Ukraine from the path to NATO membership, international recognition of the illegally occupied regions, namely Crimea, Lugansk, Donetsk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhe, and stopping all military aid to Ukraine.

These demands are, what in the negotiations are called "non-starter" conditions, representing absurd demands for the other side, being just PR smoke, behind which are hidden the real intentions, those of not reaching a lasting peace.

What's really happening in Romania? I, along with others, have to answer this question because our institutions are severely deficient in communication, leaving Romania trapped between Elon Musk’s fake news and Russian active measures orchestrated by the FSB/SVR.

The beginning: In October 2024, during the candidate validation process for the Romanian presidential election, the Constitutional Court of Romania (CCR—consider it similar to the U.S. Supreme Court for reference) invalidated the candidacy of Diana Ivanovici Șoșoacă. 2/9 She is a Member of the European Parliament, a Putin supporter, a frequent visitor to the Russian Embassy in Romania, and leader of a far-right party with fascist-leaning yet paradoxically neo-communist views. Anti-Ukraine and all that comes with it.

The CCR ruled that Șoșoacă had violated Romanian laws regarding the promotion of antisemitism and oppressive-criminal regimes. At that time, the far-right in Romania had three candidates in the race: George Simion, Diana Șoșoacă, and Călin Georgescu.

Donald Trump mentioned the Republic of Moldova in last night's State of The Union speech. Not in a good way, but in a bad way. Not in the transatlantic sense, but in the Moscow sense.

With each passing day, Donald Trump moves closer to realizing the Kremlin's ambitions from the letter Putin sent to NATO in December 2021, months before the invasion of Ukraine. In case you don't remember it, I'll remind you of some of the demands considered absurd by the civilized world at the time: 2/12

1. In the first chapter, titled "Security Measures for the Russian Federation from NATO":

1.1 NATO not to welcome any new states into the alliance;
1.2 NATO not to offer arms to Ukraine or any state that joined the alliance after 1997;
1.3 To prohibit any NATO military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus or Central Asia;
1.4 The re-establishment of a consultative mechanism along the lines of the Russia-NATO Council and the implementation of a NATO-Russia hotline;

2. In the second chapter, titled "US-Russia Security Safeguards Treaty":

1We are on an information roller-coaster. Today we speak optimistically again. I start on the less optimistic side and end with a lot of optimism:

1. What does the Trump administration's decision mean for Ukraine?

First and foremost it means the halt as of tonight night of any military aid that is contracted or already contracted (so it falls into the realm of illegality to decide) or that is on its way to Ukraine, whether it was munitions, heavy military equipment or military assistance in other forms. 🧵👇 2/24 Here I also include military equipment that is already in Poland and just needed to be crossed the border. I am writing this to understand the magnitude of the decision.

What impact will it have on Ukraine and when will it be seen?

The amount of blocked military aid may not exceed $5 billion, part PDA (Presidential Drawdown Authority), part USAI (Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative), part USSAU (U.S. Security Assistance to Ukraine) which encompasses the two, but also includes aid provided by a vote by Congress.

What Cristian Diaconescu, the head of the Chancellery of the President of Romania's Office, conveyed yesterday is no less than a historic event all NATO states that acceded NATO after 1997. On this occasion, the whole of our society should be aware of what Cristian Diaconescu said.
Firstly, the fact that the head of the presidential chancellery was able to make the following statements means that he had the approval of the President of the Republic.🧵 2/24 Secondly, the content of these statements have major implications for the future of each and every one of us, regardless of our social status, level of education, ideology, political affiliation or the appreciation of any candidate or party.
The Romanian state has received information from allies (most likely from the American side) about the talks in Riyadh between the US and Russia on the peace negotiations in Ukraine.

I stated at the beginning of the war that Russia's interest was first and foremost to get back to the table of the big players. To do that it needed to regain its sphere of influence, i.e. to be in control or indirect control of large enough populations/nations and large enough economies that it could effectively interoperate with the two big super powers (the US and China). This is the only way to get Putin back in the picture and thus deliver a victory for the population dreaming of Russia's long-gone power.🧵 2/13 I was also saying at the beginning of the war that in addition to the strategic political objective of decapitating Ukraine in order to control it and from there project power and divisiveness throughout Eastern Europe (directly affecting the Baltics, Poland and Romania and thus effectively blocking the functioning of the European Union), they also had the strategic political interest of weakening European cohesion in the hope that Europe and the US would give in before Russia reached the end of its strength.

This month we will enter the 4th year of war in Ukraine, which means we have reached the halfway point of the duration of World War II.

There are, keeping the scale, some similarities with WW2:

1. The aggressor's leader has imperialistic visions and considers himself on a mission to restore the nation's lost glory due to the world occult:

- Hitler believed that Germany was the providential nation and he had the mission to save it from the oppression of the world occult (then and now, Jews). 🧵 2/13 He had a fascination with Roman emperors and considered himself the last emperor of a Germany continuing the Western Roman Empire;
- Putin believes that Russia is an indispensable nation in defending certain values (such as Orthodox Christianity) and that it needs to regain its lost status due to the West. He has a fascination with former Russian leaders like Peter the Great and wants to restore Russki Myr (Russian World);

Did I ever tell you how I was a neighbor of Prigojin? Exactly two years ago, on January 20, 2023, I was in the heart of Bakhmut. 700 meters away were the first Wagner troops, as Bakhmut was already partially occupied by the Russians.
To make a long story short, I got there because I personally delivered a fire truck to the Bakhmut brigade after Vice dot com USA did a story🧵👇👇 2/8 sometime in the fall of 2022 about the only functioning fire brigade that had a shrapnel-drilled truck in its equipment, which they used to put out fires and rescue wounded from under Russian-caused rubble.
@DefMon3 posted a photo from the Vice footage appealing to international organizations to help the fire brigade. I volunteered and after consulting with two large organizations in Sweden (@BlagulaBilen) and Norway (@NorwegianAidUkr) to find out what I should buy.

1/16 Shawn Ryan, a former Navy SEAL and CIA bodyguard, betrays the common interests of the US and Romania by the deliberate actions he takes to propagate lies in the public space.

@ShawnRyan762 interviewed pro-Putin candidate for the Romanian presidency, Călin Georgescu, where the Romanian candidate said that the Romanian-NATO-US Mihail Kogălniceanu Romanian-NATO-US Base in Romania would be used as a base to attack Russia. 2/16 This is a falsehood, a lie, but what Shawn Ryan has done betrays the common strategic interests of the US and Romania and I accuse him directly of this.

Background:

Shawn Ryan: is a former US Army elite, part of the famous Navy SEAL teams. He was later a CIA contractor, which translates to being part of the CIA's armed wing. That doesn't make him a CIA officer, but rather a bodyguard for CIA officers and staff. He became known for his Youtube podcast "The Shawn Ryan Show" where he has exceptional guests like the real heroes of 13 Hours of Bengazi.