Thread by @J_JHelin

I saw someone mapping the Ukrainian supply routes into Avdiivka in a rather lacklustre way. So I decided to do my own, more informative, map.

To talk about the logistics of Avdiivka we also need to talk about the terrain west of it.

So Avdiivka, a thread:

1/

Let's start with the roads. To do this we need to differentiate between Main- and secondary supply routes. I'll define them as follows:

SSRs (brown): unpaved roads leading from MSRs into the city of Avdiivka.

MSRs (orange): Paved roads

2/

These definitions are important. MSRs can, obviously, carry much more supplies and more consistently regardless of the weather.

Meanwhile, the SSRs are sometimes mere dirt paths susceptible to weather, especially during the mud season.

Pictured: April roads in Bakhmut

3/

We can immediately see that only one MSR is leading all the way into Avdiivka, the O0542.

The rest of the roads leading into Avdiivka are SSRs, or as I said, varying quality of dirt roads. It takes anything from 3 to 6 kilometres of driving on these SSRs to reach Avdiivka.

4/

For comparison, the Ivanivske - Bakhmut route last spring, the video of which is above, was around 3km long. Ukraine also had to haul supplies over some other dirt paths or fields, amounting to maybe some 7km of non-paved driving at maximum.

5/

Taking this into account, supply through the SSRs is certainly possible, although a lot harder than doing it over an MSR would be.

However, the O0542 is a relatively safe route that runs directly to the west of the city. There is no immediate threat of it being cut.

6/

Indeed the challenges to supplying the city's defence come from the terrain surrounding the city, and the shape of the city itself.

First of all, the terrain west of Avdiivka is a shallow bowl with the MSR running at the bottom of it.

Shown here on topo heatmap.

7/

The Russian attacks on the flanks of the city are aimed at the edges of this bowl. If Russia manages to gain a hold on Stepne and Berdychi on the northern- and Severne on the southern flank, would mean that Russia can easily observe much of that lowland.

8/

This wouldn't likely be enough to cut the MSR, knowing how fire control is generally overrated in this war, but it would make its use much more challenging.

More challenges would follow if Russia started pushing south from Stepove and managed to fire directly on the MSR

8/

This is for a good reason. with the city being spread along the ridgeline, cityg

This is for a good reason. Gaining a large enough of a foothold in the industrial area would put immense pressure on the MSR. (Urban area in yellow)

9/

The terrain of Avdiivka is unfortunate as well. The city is spread along the ridgeline and is very long and narrow.

If Russia manages to advance to the industrial area or south of the waste heap, there is a danger of Avdiivka getting cut in two.

10/

Loss of the industrial area or the MSR would mean that the southern part of the city, the main urban area, could only be supplied via SSRs or even tertiary roads over fields. What is worse is that these routes would be very close to current Russian lines.

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The southern part of Avdiivka could be nearly surrounded like this.

This is why the northern advance around Avdiivka is much more dangerous than the southern advance, where the Ukrainians have more room to operate.

Both the Russians and Ukrainians clearly know this.

12/

Despite immense losses, the Russian pressure on Avdiivka doesn't show major signs of easing up. Their advance is slow, and further slowed by Ukrainian reinforcements.

There is a clear possibility that the Russian offensive peters out before these risks are realised.

13/

Even in the scenario where Russia can keep up the pressure and manage to advance, it's likely the action on the flanks or near the industrial area will take a long time for significant gains.

Avdiivka is not in immediate danger of collapsing.

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Ukraine has also shown signficant ability of supplying its forces through bad roads and in bad condition. The defence of Avdiivka can be kept up for a time even if the Russians close in on the MSR. At least for a time and in parts of the city.

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However, the risks are there. This is why Ukraine has expended a lot of resources to defend Avdiivka. It has moved parts of the 47th into the area, and maybe parts of the 1st tank brigade.

These units are fighting against the northern pincer.

16/

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1716516567461019691

The Russian advance may peter out as it has before. However, these resources are away from somewhere else.

With the movement of reserves, the Russian offensive around Avdiivka has likely forced the culmination of the Ukrainian summer offensive in Zaporizzhia.

17/17

Analytical note: MSRs and SSRs are drawn based on a study of Google Earth and various maps. Sometimes making out what is paved and what is not is quite hard on satellite imagery alone.

Some roads shown in Google Maps/Earth are more like trails over fields.

Not Stepne. Stepove*

Sorry for the typo.

Honestly I have to start proofreading these better.