Michael McFaul Profile picture
Oct 27 11 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Why Congress Must Provide New Aid to Ukraine. 1/ THREAD

There are many realpolitik arguments for continued aid to Ukraine. Real realists understand that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine directly serves our own national security interests.
First, Putin’s Russia threatens our NATO allies’ security in Europe. By fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are weakening the Russian military threat every day. 2/
Ukrainians are fighting the Russian invaders today so that Poles, Estonians, and Americans do not have to do so tomorrow. 3/
This cold-hearted realism does not offend Ukrainians. In Kyiv last month, I heard many senior Ukrainian officials say that they understand that their warriors are doing the dirty work for us. & all they ask for is more and better weapons. Not our soldiers; just our ammunition. 4/
Second, some Republican elected officials argue that we need to focus on the China threat, not the Russia threat. This is a false dichotomy. Putin’s defeat in Ukraine will compel Xi Jinping to think harder about invading Taiwan. Putin’s victory in Ukraine will embolden Xi. 5/
Our withdrawal from Ukraine will confirm Xi’s assessment of the U.S. as an isolationist, weak, and declining power unprepared to deter an invasion of Taiwan. That is exactly the wrong message to be sending to Beijing right now. 6/
Third, after World War II, imperialism and annexation rightfully became taboos. If we allow Putin to annex and control Ukrainian territory through military conquest, we will be opening a Pandora’s box of anarchy. 7/
This could not be further away from serving U.S. security interests. If annexation and imperialism return as standard practices in international affairs, the U.S. will constantly be pulled into wars and conflicts like we were before 1945. 8/
After World War I, some Americans argued that wars in Asia, Africa, and Europe were not our problem. Japan’s invasion of China – not our problem. Italy’s invasion of Ethiopia – not our problem. 9/
Germany’s (and the Soviet Union’s) invasion of Poland and then other countries – not our problem. Back then, leaders of the America First Committee believed that we could stick our heads in the sand, and everything would be fine. 10/
That strategy did not work out so well back then. It will not work out well today either. 11/ END

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More from @McFaul

Oct 27
"Biden may fail. People judge crises and wars only by how they end. No one will praise Biden and Blinken for their initial efforts if this conflict causes an enormous number of civilian casualties or pulls in Lebanon, Syria, Iran, or, most alarming, the US." 1/ THREAD
"Biden and his team face only hard choices with difficult trade-offs, and no easy diplomatic solutions are in sight." 2/
"But so far, I’m impressed with what American diplomacy has achieved, and grateful that this president and this team are in power at this precarious moment in history." 3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 19
Some, but not all, US responses to 9-11 were mistakes. Invading Iraq— mistake. Invading Afghanistan — not a mistake (whole world supported by the way). 1/ THREAD
Not pursuing Al Qaeda to our fullest ability in 2001– mistake. Chasing Al Qaeda for years after, including killing OBL in 2011- not a mistake. 2/
Staying in Afghanistan for 2 decades without a strategy for victory— mistake. Trying to build a more pluralistic society in Afghanistan— not a mistake. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Oct 13
"Last week, Hamas carried out horrific, barbaric acts of terrorism against innocent Israeli civilians, resulting in over a thousand killed, including 22 American citizens. The brutality and scale of their slaughter – including killing grandmothers and babies – was shocking." 1/
"No previous injustice, prior wrong, or longstanding grievance justifies these heinous actions. Hamas launched its terrorist attacks knowing very well that Israel would retaliate, deliberately triggering more suffering for the people they claim to defend." 2/
"As an act of self-defense, [Isreal's] democratically elected government has the responsibility to protect its citizens and the legitimate right to use force for self-defense, first and foremost against Hamas and Islamic Jihad..." 3/
Read 14 tweets
Oct 3
"even if Members of Congress or their constituents do not care about morality in international politics or ethics in U.S. foreign policy – because after all, it is a brutish and nasty world out there – there are many realpolitik arguments for continued aid to Ukraine." THREAD 1/
"Real realists understand that U.S. military assistance to Ukraine directly serves our own national security interests." 2/
"First, Putin’s Russia threatens our NATO allies’ security in Europe. By fighting, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are weakening the Russian military threat every day." 3/
Read 6 tweets
Oct 2
The Realist Case for Helping Ukraine Win.

"First, Ukraine’s win is essential to enhance European security. Ukrainian warriors are fighting for their nation’s right to exist but with an added security benefit for us." 1/ THREAD
"They are fighting Russian soldiers invading Europe — so that American and NATO soldiers do not have to do so later." 2/
"Were Putin to succeed in transforming Ukraine into a forward operating base, our front-line NATO allies would be threatened, demanding more American assistance, including increased deployment of our troops." 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 2
Assessment/hypothesis #1: Putin will not negotiate until he has exhausted all of his military capabilities to try to occupy the 4 regions of Ukraine that he annexed on paper last fall. THREAD 1/
Assessment/hypothesis #2: Putin will not negotiate until he knows the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November 2024. 2/
Therefore, calls for negotiations before either (1) Russia's forces have been completely exhausted & have no chance of taking those 4 regions or (2) the U.S. election are unrealistic and naive. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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