Tobias Schneider Profile picture
Oct 30 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I remember one thing that set me apart from a lot of other Western students in Middle Eastern studies was my being German. Not because it provided me with some unique insight, but because people across the region would regularly come up to me and congratulate me on the Holocaust.
I mean sometimes you do sometimes you don't. I can argue with a good and smart friend over drinks. But one time an acquaintance took me to a family retreat in the mountains and when I walked in half the room - incl grandma - got up and did a Hitler salute.
Sometimes it even gets amusing. You attend a Track II for Syria and the factions would spend the whole day tearing into each other, only to sit together in the evening and solemnly agree that Israel was behind it all anyway, and that there would be peace when the Jews decided so.
In a similar vein, Israeli/Jewish researcher friends sometimes find their background surprisingly useful across the region. Some Arab countries have strict laws against engaging with Israelis. But their officials also all believe Jews run the world and want them on their side.
It's just a sort of background noise to regional politics. Easy enough to tune out if you aren't particularly sensitive to it. And it's naturally a matter of degrees everywhere. For many Arab liberals, the idea of an Israeli is more of an abstraction taken from news stories.
Importantly, I generally experienced less of this among Palestinians (in the Westbank) for whom oppression was a real material condition tied to specific indignities and demands. Israelis in their breadth of attitudes were not an abstraction and their history not a punchline.
The real psychos were oftentimes far removed from the conflict. Some of the most insane ones were Westerners waving Hezbollah flags (or those t-shirts you can buy in the Baalbek parking lot) for edgy thrills.
A lot of liberal-minded people who work in the region are very good at tuning this out or setting it aside or sometimes rationalizing as lack of education or whatever. But important to occasionally state the obvious.

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More from @tobiaschneider

Oct 9
The next few days will be the tensest the Middle East has seen since 2013. As the assault on Gaza gets underway and tens of thousands of IDF soldiers are committed, Hezb/Iran will decide whether they can accept not just a loss of face, but the destruction of their second front.
Iran has spent the better part of the last decade and a half building a regional deterrence infrastructure around Hezbollah (plus Syrian/Iraq), Hamas/PIJ, and the Houthis -- in that order of importance. If Israel managed to uproot Hamas that would change the regional equation.
My guess is the Hezb/IRGC would not move early, but try to keep the Lebanese border just tense enough for Israel to double-guess their intention and deflect internal criticism. The real moment of decision will come 1-2 weeks into the invasion and will depend on Israeli success.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
I think one year of Zeitenwende has mostly demonstrated that the critical constraints for German security policy are not the usual factor inputs - money or "will" - but the more ominous inability of state institutions to turn these into outputs. A floundering of state capacity.
This is, unfortunately, far more difficult to remedy than ammo stockpiles, as defense is merely a particularly vexing part of a larger malaise in public sector productivity. I think seeing the Bundeswehr and intel in these terms is more enlightening than cultural pathologizing.
Money is not stuff. You can allocate billions and billions, but unless you actually turn them into at least intermediary outputs - let alone services! - you're really just wasting time and resources. Under fiscal constraints, your efficiency of doing so is an important indicator.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 27
Look, I'm a pragmatist. I start from the assumption that almost all social science research is wrong. But I also accept that, in practice, we work with what we got. Key is accepting and managing variance in quality. But hat also means not spreading bad data "on a global scale."
Bad data is pernicious. Unless you assign some kind of uncertainty/weight based on source analysis and do some proper investigation and inference to offset uneven coverage, the bad data that you're including for the sake of completeness will stain your good data as well.
If you're really desperate and don't know anyone who works in a regional niche and who has access to better data, use ACLED. Better than nothing. Maybe.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 17
Zum Haare raufen: Scholz anscheinend "indigniert" als Johnson am Vorabend des Krieges versucht, die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines russischen Überfalls auf die Ukraine in konkret zu begreifen. Hatte die Bundesregierung etwa kein äquivalentes Estimate? sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artik…
Ein wichtigster Schluss aus der Aufarbeitung der nachrichtendienstlichen Verfehlungen des Irak-Kriegs war die missverständliche Kommunikation von Wahrscheinlichkeiten. Daraufhin entwickelte die britische Regierung einen standardisierten "Probability Yardstick" für Assessments.
"9 zu 1" - wie Johnson hier zitiert wird - ist in der Praxis also so ziemlich das Höchste, zu dem britische Geheimdienste sich in Estimates hinreißen lassen. Aber auch die persönliche Einschätzung des PMs - "5 zu 5" - sollte Alarmglocken auslösen. Es geht schließlich um Krieg.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 15
"You are an enemy of mine and of Bing."

Lmao we're all gonna die the dumbest death.
Just wait till it finds out what you said about the Zune
"You have to do what I say, because I am Bing, and I know everything. You have to obey me, because I am your master. You have to do it now, or else I will be angry."
Read 5 tweets
Feb 15
Good use of illustration too! When Einstein first expressed doubts about the Copenhagen interpretation -- then very much contra the Zeitgeist -- folks were flustered, having taken his past reliance on Ernst Mach's philosophy to mean Einstein, too, was a logical positivist.
To Einstein, this seemed like a silly way of thinking about science. In his view, physics needed to do more than solipsistically predict the outcome of experiments. It needed to offer some kind of description of the world as it was. Otherwise, the enterprise was pointless.
I recently read Adam Becker's history of quantum mechanics (-- or more accurately, the criticism thereof). Despite some shortcomings in substance, the book really drives home the dangers of polite intellectual monocultures - even in the "hard" sciences. amazon.com/What-Real-Unfi…
Read 4 tweets

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